The Indo-Pacific Says No to an Asian NATO

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper recently emphasized the need for the Indo-Pacific to establish an “Asian NATO” for multilateral security cooperation and announced that the U.S. will formulate a “game-changing” naval expansion plan to counter China’s increasing forces at sea.* Prior to this, Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun pointed out that the Indo-Pacific lacks a strong multilateral security cooperation organization and expressed a desire for the U.S., Japan, Australia and India to establish a structured organization on the basis of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.** For the New Delhi talks, South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand are invited to join the U.S. in preparing to form an “Asian NATO.”

The Trump administration believes that if the U.S. does not have political and military influence in the Indo-Pacific, its economic, trade and commercial interests will also take a hit. Therefore, it is trying to draw in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, ASEAN, India, etc., to join the U.S.-led “Indo-Pacific Strategy.” The Trump administration’s “America First” policy, however, being both self-interested and unpredictable, has made most Indo-Pacific allies suspicious.

The U.S. intends to create the “Asian NATO” to contain China. This not only requires Indo-Pacific nations to side with the U.S., but also requires each country to pay fees to the United States to guarantee protection. This may lead to backlash in mainstream public opinion in most Indo-Pacific countries and cause Indo-Pacific leaders to enter difficult situations in both domestic and foreign affairs. In addition, the U.S. pandemic relief expenditure and deficit budget of the debt-inducing military has caused national debt to rise to $26 trillion, which will eventually weaken the U.S. military, dollar liquidity and international influence. It is impossible for most Indo-Pacific countries to turn a blind eye to the current decline of the United States.

In other words, the U.S. intends to win over Indo-Pacific nations to form “Asian NATO,” which I am afraid will not have a strong foundation. The Trump administration is actively planning its “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” but is still asking Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN countries to increase U.S. military purchases. Trump has implemented economic and trade nationalism measures to warn Indo-Pacific countries not to take advantage of the U.S. — this direct contradiction between military security and economic trade has caused most Indo-Pacific countries to lose trust in the United States. At the same time, the formation of an “Asian NATO” by the U.S. is bound to worsen the atmosphere of the new cold war between the U.S. and China and create new pressure and security risks for Indo-Pacific countries when taking sides.

Currently, most Indo-Pacific nations think that the U.S. has already transformed itself from a leader to a self-interested competitor. Recently, China’s technological developments have been halted by the United States, forcing Indo-Pacific nations to try to alleviate tensions between the U.S. and China. However, Indo-Pacific nations facing the U.S.-China conflict do not want to explicitly side with one party or show hostility toward China, which would leave economic, trade and security interests in a high-risk position. Therefore, Indo-Pacific countries will likely say no to the U.S. after careful deliberation.

The author is a consultant of the National Security Group of the National Policy Foundation.

*Editor’s note: This quote, accurately translated from the original, could not be verified.

**Editor’s note: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, created in 2007, is an informal arrangement between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India intended to support a free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.