Will Trump Win, or Biden?
Published in Yeni Şafak
(Turkey) on 1 November 2020
by Abdullah Muradoğlu (link to original)
Americans will decide on Tuesday who their next president will be. Let us recall that American presidents are not elected by direct popular vote. The 538-member Electoral College decides who will be president. The candidate who wins the most votes in a state takes all the electors of that state. The 538 electors of the Electoral College are distributed across the 50 states, and the president is elected by winning 270 electoral votes. Though she won 3 million more popular votes than Trump in 2016, Hillary Clinton was not elected president.
In 2016, Trump won the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all of which had voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1992. Trump was elected president by coming out ahead in these three states by a total difference of 80,000 votes. If Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins these three states, his chance of being elected president are strong. It is clear that Biden will win more votes than Trump; however, this is not enough for the presidency. The “swing states” of Georgia, Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will determine the outcome of the struggle between the two parties. There are certainly other states, such as Texas, that will also facilitate the candidates’ victory.
It is obvious that the November election will be tenser than previous ones. Both parties view this election as “existential.” It was predicted that early voting numbers would reach 80 million. It was also estimated that, due to the epidemic, the number of mail-in votes would increase exponentially. Early voting numbers already surpassed 80 million two days ago.
The ethnic distribution of the American population has never been as influential on the outcome of an election as now. The increase in voter turnout among “Black,” “Hispanic” and other nonwhite voters seems to favor Democrats. Biden needs to get votes from “white working class” voters, and Trump has to win votes from nonwhite voters.
The percentage of Black voter turnout was lower in 2016 than in 2012. Black voter turnout is expected to increase in this election. The election of Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice presidential running mate from a mixed Black-Indian family, carries symbolic value for this reason. Let us recall that an overwhelming segment of nonwhite American voters vote Democrat.
Blacks and Hispanics are the populations most harmed by the pandemic. On the other hand, systemic racial discrimination and police violence toward African Americans have greatly electrified the Black electorate. Americans of color make up nearly a third of voters and are spread out across many states. Even in states where the difference in votes between the two parties is very close, small numbers can influence and change the election results.
There is controversy that Trump will not withdraw if he loses. The reason has to do with the mail-in vote count; a large segment of mail-in voters vote Democrat. There are disputes about how much time should be spent counting these votes. This issue has even gone to court in several states. Trump has said that the mail-in voting dispute could go to the Supreme Court. Trump nominated Amy Coney Barret for the vacant seat on the Supreme Court, and the Republican-majority Senate quickly confirmed the nomination. Now, the Republicans are a six-justice majority on the nine-member Supreme Court.
If the difference in votes between the two presidential candidates is close, then the U.S. can expect chaos. In this situation, finalizing the election results will be prolonged and disputes will be taken to the Supreme Court. If Biden wins more votes than Trump, the Republicans basically have no opportunity to contest the results. Therefore, the Democrats have urged voters to waste no time and cast their votes as early as possible.
Hillary Clinton appeared to be ahead in the 2016 polls. There was no chance given at all to a Trump win. However, Trump did win, surprisingly. Now the situation has changed in many ways. According to the polls, Biden appears even farther ahead of Trump than Clinton was, and this situation may reflect the election results. Or, Trump may disappoint the pollsters yet again.
In 2016, Trump won the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all of which had voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1992. Trump was elected president by coming out ahead in these three states by a total difference of 80,000 votes. If Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins these three states, his chance of being elected president are strong. It is clear that Biden will win more votes than Trump; however, this is not enough for the presidency. The “swing states” of Georgia, Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will determine the outcome of the struggle between the two parties. There are certainly other states, such as Texas, that will also facilitate the candidates’ victory.
It is obvious that the November election will be tenser than previous ones. Both parties view this election as “existential.” It was predicted that early voting numbers would reach 80 million. It was also estimated that, due to the epidemic, the number of mail-in votes would increase exponentially. Early voting numbers already surpassed 80 million two days ago.
The ethnic distribution of the American population has never been as influential on the outcome of an election as now. The increase in voter turnout among “Black,” “Hispanic” and other nonwhite voters seems to favor Democrats. Biden needs to get votes from “white working class” voters, and Trump has to win votes from nonwhite voters.
The percentage of Black voter turnout was lower in 2016 than in 2012. Black voter turnout is expected to increase in this election. The election of Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice presidential running mate from a mixed Black-Indian family, carries symbolic value for this reason. Let us recall that an overwhelming segment of nonwhite American voters vote Democrat.
Blacks and Hispanics are the populations most harmed by the pandemic. On the other hand, systemic racial discrimination and police violence toward African Americans have greatly electrified the Black electorate. Americans of color make up nearly a third of voters and are spread out across many states. Even in states where the difference in votes between the two parties is very close, small numbers can influence and change the election results.
There is controversy that Trump will not withdraw if he loses. The reason has to do with the mail-in vote count; a large segment of mail-in voters vote Democrat. There are disputes about how much time should be spent counting these votes. This issue has even gone to court in several states. Trump has said that the mail-in voting dispute could go to the Supreme Court. Trump nominated Amy Coney Barret for the vacant seat on the Supreme Court, and the Republican-majority Senate quickly confirmed the nomination. Now, the Republicans are a six-justice majority on the nine-member Supreme Court.
If the difference in votes between the two presidential candidates is close, then the U.S. can expect chaos. In this situation, finalizing the election results will be prolonged and disputes will be taken to the Supreme Court. If Biden wins more votes than Trump, the Republicans basically have no opportunity to contest the results. Therefore, the Democrats have urged voters to waste no time and cast their votes as early as possible.
Hillary Clinton appeared to be ahead in the 2016 polls. There was no chance given at all to a Trump win. However, Trump did win, surprisingly. Now the situation has changed in many ways. According to the polls, Biden appears even farther ahead of Trump than Clinton was, and this situation may reflect the election results. Or, Trump may disappoint the pollsters yet again.
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