The World with Biden

The autumn months passed as the world was locked onto the U.S. elections. Every country slowed down relatively speaking, and even suspended business. Every side of current issues has been prepared with both a Joe Biden and Donald Trump outcome. At this moment, the election results have not yet been certified. Trump, who evidently lost according to the ballot, is making gestures to the court by declaring the elections fraudulent. There is a possibility that he will not leave the White House. But his party and the media aligned with his party have asserted that they will not support Trump if he resists. It is understood that, sooner or later, Biden will move into the White House. Big name Republicans and opinion leaders have advised Trump not to aggravate the current situation, but to prepare for the next presidential election. Some say that Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is included among those advisers.

Biden is recognized as an institutionalist who apparently backs the founding principles of the United States. The framework upon which U.S. relations with other world states will rest is being determined in this way. The United States’ founding principles, namely republican and libertarian values, correspond to a sense of superiority. It is understood that Biden will maintain an approach the world based on these principles. Contrary to American values, Trump was able to establish close relations with the North Korean and Egyptian dictatorships, and with Arab tribal leaders. We remember how Trump danced, sword in hand, with the Saudi and Gulf dictators at global coalition summits. We also remember how Trump’s sympathetic relationship with the leader of North Korea, and the cooperation he established with Egypt’s Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. But that’s not everything. At the same time, Trump was able to build rapport with democratically elected and charismatic leaders, especially Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It should be noted just how problematic this appears for Biden and the Democrats, who act pursuant to America’s founding principles. This is a strange approach that places Xi Jinping, Putin and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the same box. Indeed, as Alev Atali has articulated on several occasions, these simplifications and vulgar characterizations signal how low democratic sensibilities are in the U.S., and that it is necessary to evaluate the U.S. from the standpoint of republican sensibilities, not democratic ones. The last election has sufficiently taught the public about the eccentricities of the American electoral system. This is a guarded democracy. One is trying to cover up these eccentricities based on the special characteristics of the United States. The U.S. is democratic to the extent it maintains its “elitist republican-democratic” founding values. Everyone thinks that being liberal is the same thing as being democratic, but actually, this is not the case. There are even deep contradictions between “democratic sensibilities” and “liberal” ones. Liberal democracy is political history’s hardest structure to build, and easiest to tear down or demolish. For this reason, American democratic sensitivities are not as developed as previously thought. America easily equates “elected” leaders, such as Putin and Erdogan, with “unelected” ones, such as Crown Prince bin Salman and Kim Jong Un.

At the same time, America’s founding principles also form the link that unites the U.S. and the European Union. The ghosts of the Marquis de Lafayette and Benjamin Franklin, whose history extends to both continents, walk this line. Trump has battered this alliance quite a bit. He buried Barack Obama’s eagerly sought trans-Atlantic trade agreement. He shunned and disparaged NATO. He even pursued other institutions that could render NATO dysfunctional. Biden will reestablish these alliances. The Biden period will be a NATO era where strong U.S.-EU ties will be refurbished and reinforced. I have no doubt of that. This means reviewing Middle East relations during the Trump period. The most essential question is whether or not the global coalition will function. I believe the process will continue. Even though there is relative distance with Israel, it will never become a rupture. The Gulf states and Saudi Arabia will be forced to serve Israel’s interests, and deplete their financial resources for this end. The criticism directed at the Arab dictatorships should be regarded as a tool to pressure them in this direction. We will see what this constraint makes them do. We will follow along and see if Biden will harbor animosity for Turkey, as he has before. It seems that Iran, on the other hand, will be relieved by, and benefit the most from, the trans-Atlantic alliance. We will be able to see how far this can go in the course of Israel-U.S. relations. We understand there will be a new era of tension with respect to relations between Russia and the United States. I believe provocation of internal instability and new sanctions await Russia.

Practically every authority has said that the most fundamental and critical issue will be where China-U.S. relations end up. There are even those who claim this process poses the possibilitiy of a very serious war. Biden’s position on this matter is not very clear. From those notorious TV debates, we know that Trump accused Biden of helping China. The prevailing view is that China-U.S. tensions will continue into the Biden era. These views are attributed to the escalation of tensions during the last years of Obama’s presidency, when Biden accused Xi Jinping of “bullying.” But my personal opinion is that Biden is on the road to taking more moderate steps with regard to China. It is certain that the U.S. will pressure China on a politically liberal axis over certain issues such as patent theft, Hong Kong and the Uighur Turks. However, I do not think that China-U.S. tensions will escalate. Global capital, which has a presence in both these countries, will determine the state of this tension. This matter is too intense to be left to Biden or Xi Jinping.