The U.S. Congress is stopping Trump’s plans, but Germany should not be mistaken: The new president will also insist that the federal government invest more money in defense.
Donald Trump’s understanding of foreign and security policy has occasionally been belittled as “transactional.” In his “America First” ideology, alliances and the global military presence of the U.S. are, above all, a cost factor. The former real estate shark was never particularly interested in their historical development, long-term strategic reasons and advantages, overriding security and economic interests. These cannot easily be quantified in dollars and cents either.
Fueled by whisperings from his former ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell, Trump decided to make an example of Germany and to wipe out Chancellor Angela Merkel. Because the German government is a “defaulting payer” in NATO and is also buying gas from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin for billions of euros, he ordered the U.S. contingent in Germany to be limited to 25,000 soldiers. That would have meant a withdrawal of around 12,000 soldiers — including their families.
It is remarkable and extremely positive that in the still extremely polarized mood of the interregnum in Washington, Congress has put a stop to this for the time being. In both chambers, the two parties have agreed with overwhelming majorities on a defense budget that postpones any withdrawal for at least 120 days — and thus is subject to review by the new government under Democrat Joe Biden. The tendency in Congress suggests that they are ready to create more reliability again and to enforce it in a nonpartisan way.
The SPD Also Supported the 2% Target
Trump’s goal was to damage Germany economically. His decision would have jeopardized the existence of large bases in the structurally weak Upper Palatinate and the Eifel*. Important headquarters from the Stuttgart region should also be relocated. The Pentagon and the general staff first had to come up with a security policy justification. How the military logic collided with that of Trump could already be seen from the fact that headquarters were to be relocated to Belgium and fighter jets to Italy — two countries whose defense spending in relation to economic output was significantly further from the 2% target agreed to by NATO and further off target than Germany’s.
Despite all the relief, nobody in Germany should now misunderstand the vote of Congress and its obvious willingness to overrule a Trump veto as a guarantee of eternity for the bases in this country — or as a license to continue to lag behind the targets set by NATO for defense spending. Incidentally, this 2% target was also supported by the SPD, which is now tempted to campaign against it.
Biden will also insist that Europe take on more responsibility, a demand that Germany’s most important partner in Europe, France, in the person of its president, Emmanuel Macron, regularly repeats. Biden will present his position in a friendlier tone, in the spirit of partnership and trans-Atlantic friendship. But there will also be military and strategic reasons for reducing the number of U.S. troops in this country for a U.S. president who is extremely well-disposed toward Germany.
Editor’s Note: The Upper Palatinate and the Eifel are two separate regions in Germany.
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