Farewell, Afghanistan: The American Departure Is a Recipe for Catastrophe
Published in Lidove noviny
(Czech Republic) on 14 April 2021
by Marek Hudema (link to original)
Most representatives of America's two main political parties, and ordinary Americans, have run out of patience with its longest war, i.e., with the war in Afghanistan. President Joe Biden therefore wants, according to the press, the last American soldier to disappear from that country by Sept. 11 of this year. Only, that’s a recipe for catastrophe.
And for an even bigger one than the decision of his predecessor, Donald Trump, who wanted to withdraw American troops from the country by May 1. True, Biden is extending their stay, which may help the Afghan government for a while in its fight against insurgents, but only for a while. The big thing is that the American president wants to withdraw troops from the country unconditionally. Trump at least had two formal conditions for withdrawal: first, that the Islamist Taliban movement, which once hosted the terrorist group al-Qaida that carried out the 9/11 attacks on America, make progress in negotiations on permanent reconciliation with the Afghan government supported by the West. Second, that the Taliban prevent al-Qaida or Islamic State terrorists from regaining a foothold in Afghanistan. That created at least some pressure on the Taliban to break up with the biggest radicals and negotiate with the government. They have no such motivation under Biden. Americans will vanish from the country anyway, so what? They can just wait a bit and then take over the country.
The result will be that an Islamist Taliban regime will evidently gain control of Afghanistan since the Afghan government and army are weak without Western assistance. The Taliban will take revenge on all “collaborators” who have worked with the Americans or Europeans, and they decidedly won’t trouble themselves with observing Afghanis’ human rights. Moreover, if the Taliban regime once more radicalizes some portion of Afghanistan, or is unable to control it, which can’t be ruled out at all, the country could once again become a base for terrorists. What of the claim of American intelligence services that that is not a threat now? In the long run it could happen, and it appears that things will go totally the other way.
And for an even bigger one than the decision of his predecessor, Donald Trump, who wanted to withdraw American troops from the country by May 1. True, Biden is extending their stay, which may help the Afghan government for a while in its fight against insurgents, but only for a while. The big thing is that the American president wants to withdraw troops from the country unconditionally. Trump at least had two formal conditions for withdrawal: first, that the Islamist Taliban movement, which once hosted the terrorist group al-Qaida that carried out the 9/11 attacks on America, make progress in negotiations on permanent reconciliation with the Afghan government supported by the West. Second, that the Taliban prevent al-Qaida or Islamic State terrorists from regaining a foothold in Afghanistan. That created at least some pressure on the Taliban to break up with the biggest radicals and negotiate with the government. They have no such motivation under Biden. Americans will vanish from the country anyway, so what? They can just wait a bit and then take over the country.
The result will be that an Islamist Taliban regime will evidently gain control of Afghanistan since the Afghan government and army are weak without Western assistance. The Taliban will take revenge on all “collaborators” who have worked with the Americans or Europeans, and they decidedly won’t trouble themselves with observing Afghanis’ human rights. Moreover, if the Taliban regime once more radicalizes some portion of Afghanistan, or is unable to control it, which can’t be ruled out at all, the country could once again become a base for terrorists. What of the claim of American intelligence services that that is not a threat now? In the long run it could happen, and it appears that things will go totally the other way.
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