Examining the Blueprint of Biden’s 1st 100 Days

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 25 April 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
U.S. President Joe Biden will soon have been in office for 100 days. Compared with the first 100 days of Donald Trump's administration, during which the appointment of personnel was chaotic, policies were upended and Congress was criticized, Biden’s new administration is on track. Not only were important personnel matters determined early on, but the administration is moving in quite a clear direction. With Democratic control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the administration can fully promote its policies.

Biden took over a divided America in the midst of an economic recession. Therefore, he is focusing his administration on addressing domestic issues. In addition to his $1.9 trillion rescue plan, Biden is concentrating on pushing his eight-year, $2.25 trillion American Jobs Plan. This plan will vigorously promote infrastructure, including improvements in transportation, housing, broadband networks, power grids and clean energy technology. It is the largest investment by the government since the space program in the 1960s.


Biden administration policies have also encouraged the purchase of American goods and strengthened innovation and research and development. In particular, Biden substantially reversed Trump’s stance on green energy by expanding renewable energy industries, primarily through backing electric vehicles, and proactively addressing the issue of climate change. Additionally, to ensure economic security, the Biden administration will review the supply chains of critical industries in two phases. The purpose of this review is not only to remove China from the supply chain, but also to ensure economic stability by supporting U.S. industries and promoting domestic manufacturing.

Although Biden’s short-term rescue plan has been criticized as throwing money at the economy to save it, it is not outside the scope of similar plans during the Trump era. Still, most people definitely believe that Biden’s infrastructure and supply-chain plans will help enhance America’s long-term competitiveness.

The U.S. economy has already begun to recover under the Biden administration’s firm control of the pandemic and generous rescue plan. In the first quarter of this year, the gross domestic product had already returned to pre-pandemic levels, and it’s estimated that this year’s economic growth will be at least 6% — the highest in 70 years. Moreover, it's estimated that inflation will remain within a controllable range. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4%, which will be near the 3.5% pre-pandemic level.

Regarding foreign policy, Biden advocates strengthening international participation, as well as repairing relationships and cooperating with allies. Therefore, after he came into office, he immediately announced that the U.S. would rejoin the Paris Agreement and also stopped the process of U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization.

Regarding China policy, in the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released in March, the U.S. deemed China the only competitor with the comprehensive strength to challenge the U.S. Its future relationship with China is one of America’s greatest challenges. Similar to the thinking of the Trump administration, technology is at the core of U.S.-China competition.

Nevertheless, Biden encourages responding to challenges from China with a comprehensive strategy. By entirely revising Trump’s unilateral approach to confronting China, Biden will actively cooperate with allies. In addition to opening a four-way security dialogue with Japan, Australia and India, Biden is also cooperating with Korea and the European Union to respond to the China threat. In particular, a statement released after the recent U.S.-Japan leadership summit directly opposed China’s activity in the South China Sea, as well as its stance on Xinjiang and Hong Kong. It also established an economic cooperation partnership, revealing America’s ambition.

Regarding its China trade policy, the U.S. will not back down on the short-term punitive tariffs that have been levied on China. It will also keep adding more Chinese companies to its entity list* and will provide incentives to help American companies reduce their dependence on China. In the biggest departure from Trump’s approach, Biden is promoting a systematic detachment from Chinese supply chains and will conduct a supply-chain review of important industries in phases. By gathering together allies, the administration will remove China from the supply chain, creating a resilient American supply chain.

In the future, the U.S. and China will engage in a pattern of confrontation and competition. Still, on certain specific issues such as climate change, the pandemic and nuclear energy, the U.S. will not rule out cooperating with China or allowing its conditional involvement.

In summary, the policies of the Biden administration are roughly in line with his campaign promises. However, it's worthy of note that, although Biden leans toward liberalism, he must still take into account the views of more conservative Democrats. He also cannot overlook the forces supporting Trump’s anti-globalization stance, and must adopt a more protective stance on trade policy. Based on this, Taiwan should not only actively participate in America’s reorganization of supply chains, but also pay attention to America’s expansion of protective trade measures, such as the impact of anti-dumping measures on Taiwan's industry. Taiwan should also respond to America’s concerns over the increasing trade surplus between the U.S. and Taiwan.

*Editor's Note: An entity list is a trade blacklist published by the U.S. Department of Commerce.


透視拜登上任百日的施政藍圖

美國拜登總統上任即將屆滿百日,相較於川普總統就任百日時人事任用混亂,政策反覆,以及與國會社論;拜登新政府算是上軌道,除了重要人事早已底定,施政方向也相當明確,政策在民主黨掌控參眾兩院下,也可以全力推動。

拜登所接手的美國,是一個經濟嚴重衰退,分裂對立的社會,因此拜登施政聚焦在國內問題。除了短期1.9兆美元的紓困方案外,拜登重點是推動為期八年、規模2.25兆美元的「美國就業計畫」。該計畫將大力推動基礎建設,包括改善交通、住房、寬頻網路、電網、潔淨能源技術等領域,為1960年代太空計畫以來,美國政府最大的投資。

拜登政府也透過政策鼓勵購買美國貨,加強研發創新;特別是拜登大幅翻轉川普不重視綠能的立場,擴大對再生能源相關產業,主要是對電動車的支持,積極因應氣候變遷問題。另外為確保經濟安全,拜登政府也將分兩階段檢討關鍵產業供應鏈。目的不侷限在排除中國,而以扶植美國產業,並落實在美國本土就近生產,以確保經濟安全。

雖然拜登的短期紓困方案被批評為撒鈔票救經濟,不脫川普時期新瓶裝舊酒的範圍;不過各界大多肯定對拜登的基礎建設計畫,以及供應鏈盤點方案,認為有助於美國長期競爭力的提升。

美國經濟在拜登政府強力控制疫情,大手筆紓困方案下,經濟已開始復甦。在今年第1季GDP已經回復到疫情前的水準,預估今年經濟成長率至少會有6%,創70年來新高,通貨膨脹也預期在可控制範圍內;失業率預估會降到4%,已經接近疫情前3.5%的水準。

在對外政策方面,拜登主張加強國際參與,重修與盟邦關係,強調與盟友合作;所以上任後立即宣布重返巴黎氣候協定,以及停止美國退出世界衛生組織(WHO)的程序。

在對中國政策上,今年3月發布的《國家安全戰略臨時指南》,美國將中國視為唯一具有綜合實力、挑戰美國的競爭對手。未來美中關係是美國最大的挑戰之一,而技術則是美中競爭的核心,此與川普政府思維相似。

但是拜登主張必須以全方位戰略因應中國挑戰,全盤修正川普單邊主義對抗中國的作法,轉而積極與盟友合作。除了與日本、澳大利亞及印度展開「四方安全對話」,拜登也準備與韓國及歐盟合作,共同應對中國威脅。特別是最近美日領袖高峰會所發表的聯合聲明,直接反對中國在南海的活動,以及對新疆及香港的立場;並建立經濟合作聯盟的夥伴關係,展現美國的企圖心。

在對中國經貿政策方面,美國對中國懲罰性的關稅短期不會退場,也會持續納入更多中國企業為拒絕商業往來的「實體清單」,還會提供誘因措施,協助美國企業降低對中國依賴。與川普大不同的是,拜登主張有系統的與中國供應鏈脫鉤,所以將分階段對重要產業進行供應鏈盤點,並結合盟國建構去中國化,具有韌性的美國供應鏈。

美中未來將呈現對抗及競爭為主的格局,但在某些特定議題上,如氣候變遷、全球防疫、核能議題等亦不排除與中國大陸進行合作,或讓其有條件的參與。

綜合而言,拜登新政府政策大致符合其競選主張。不過值得注意的是,雖然拜登傾向自由主義,但仍必須顧及到民主黨內較保守的意見,以及不可忽視支持川普反全球化的力量,在貿易政策上採取較為保護的立場。基於此,台灣除了積極參與美國主導供應鏈重組外,也應注意美國擴大貿易保護手段,例如反傾銷措施對台灣產業的影響;以及因應美國對於節節上升台美貿易順差的關切。

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