United States: ‘Republican Politicians Are Still Paralyzed in the Face of Trump’s Influence’

Donald Trump’s declaration that the November 2020 election was stolen from him is fracturing the Republican camp. Rep. Liz Cheney has incurred the wrath of her party by disagreeing with the ex-president on May 3. Proof that, four months after his departure from the White House, Trump’s shadow is still omnipresent. …

Even at a distance, Trump continues to fuel debates within his party. In a press release, the former president has once again asserted that the presidential election of November 2020 was stolen from him by Joe Biden. That false assertion was challenged by a member of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives: Liz Cheney, a representative from the state of Wyoming and daughter of George W. Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney. “The presidential election of 2020 was not stolen. Anyone who claims it was is spreading THE BIG LIE, turning their back on the rule of law and poisoning our democratic system,” she tweeted.

This vitriolic message occurred while Cheney is being strongly challenged in-house. Numerous Republicans have criticized her vote in favor of the second impeachment proceeding against Trump for his role in the Capitol attack of Jan. 6 or, further, her refusal to join in multiple claims by the former president of vote-rigging in the election. So much so that many predict a dark future for the number three Republican in Congress.*

While a CNN poll indicates that 70% of Republican supporters are convinced that Biden did not win enough votes to be president, the position of “moderate” politicians of the Grand Old Party seems more and more precarious. Four months after his departure from the White House, Trump’s shadow is still omnipresent. …

Analysis with Lauric Henneton, senior lecturer at the University of Versailles – Saint Quentin-en-Yvelines, author of The American Dream in the Age of Donald Trump (Ed.Vendémiaire, 2020)

How can one explain that, four months after Trump’s actual departure from the White House, the legitimacy of the election is still disputed?

After four years of Trump, American opinion still sees Democratic and Republican politicians sealed in their bubble, unable to resolve the problems of “real” Americans. Starting in 2011, that took the form of movements like Occupy Wall Street, then politically in 2016 by populist candidates of the left, like Bernie Sanders, or of the right, like Trump. They knew how to contain and portray anger. Among Republicans, this attachment didn’t stop after his defeat in November: There isn’t anyone to replace him, to personify those ideas within the party. His influence, although reduced by his eviction from Twitter, is always there: When Trump speaks, a certain segment of the population listens to him. Including when he maintains that the election was stolen from him.

We’re not talking about an isolated slice of the population. Rep. Cheney was heavily criticized this Monday for having contradicted Trump over the validity of the election. More than 100 Republican politicians still seem to doubt the ballot results. How can this be explained?

It all flows from the voters and the weakness of the Republican Party. You have to remember that political parties are historically weak in the United States, which translates into a strong unpopularity of Congress. Some figures, such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, can remain in place because of their local base and by their influence. But in a great many cases, Republican politicians are paralyzed in the face of Trump’s influence. They are afraid to alienate voters and terrified by what the local machines are becoming. Today, one can be challenged by one’s own camp in a primary. That’s the key: it should be stressed that the primaries are falsely democratic. These are losing machines, to crush candidates, to push to center stage those having the most extreme views.

In addition, there is always the threat of Trump’s sound bite. When he feels like giving his point of view on someone, he doesn’t hesitate. No one feels like being the target of a vindictive press release from the former president when what he says is heard among his partisans: for many, their affection toward him is a matter of faith. There’s no need to make elected officials alienate their base in order to contradict Trump.

All the more so since disparaging Trump can bring on very virulent criticism by voters. One thinks in particular of Mitt Romney, the sole Republican senator to have voted twice in favor of convicting the former president in his impeachment trials. During a public gathering, he was notably called a “traitor” and “communist” by an angry crowd. …

To see Romney, a former Republican candidate for the presidency in 2012, being treated as a “communist” is something juicy enough. Despite his very conservative pedigree and his very long record among Republicans, his anti-Trump positions placed him in the sphere of “infidels” in the eyes of Trumpists. Calling him a “communist” is a bit like calling him an “apostate” or a “heretic.” One might be led to believe that a purification movement of the party could be set in motion for the benefit of pro-Trump forces, while more and more moderates risk calling it quits.

So, is the Republican Party going to remain the “party of Trump” forever? What will happen if Trump is unable to run in the next election?

Let’s not deceive ourselves: despite this “purification” movement, a number of people are beginning to emerge in the party. They are more moderate than Trump, at least in their manner of expression. Ron DeSantis in Florida and Kristi Noem from South Dakota come particularly to mind. These very presentable politicians are quite conservative and could tick off the boxes for 2024.

*Editor’s Note: On May 12, the House Republican caucus voted to remove Cheney from her leadership position.