US-Russia Summit: Don’t Let Putin Get Arrogant

Published in Sankei Shimbun
(Japan) on 19 June 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by T Kagata. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Will Russia’s Putin administration, which has committed bad acts such as the annexation of Crimea and the launch of cyberattacks on democratic countries, change its behavior? This is the question people are asking.

The first face-to-face summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin took place in Geneva. The two leaders agreed to initiate a Strategic Stability Dialogue on nuclear arms control. They also agreed to begin talks about cyberspace security.

Biden held this meeting to build a “stable and predictable relationship” with Russia. The goal is to get Russia to comply with international norms and stop its destructive behavior against democratic countries in order to focus on deterring China.

Biden summed up the meeting by saying, “We’ve established a clear basis on how we intend to deal with Russia and the U.S.-Russia relationship.” Regarding the cyberattacks originating from Russia, which have caused significant damage in the U.S., Biden outlined 16 entities, defined as critical infrastructure under U.S. policy, that should be off limits to attack, and warned of retaliation if the Russian government is involved in any cyberattacks. He also made it clear that he would continue to raise the issue of human rights abuses by the Russian government, including the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist.

However, it is too optimistic to think that Putin will change his behavior. He did not admit any wrongdoing in the U.S. presidential election or the cyberattacks involving Russian intelligence. It is common practice for the Russian government to allow covert operations while pretending to be uninvolved, as Russian militias and intelligence agencies did in the 2014 conflict in eastern Ukraine. As for the annexation of Crimea and the suppression of Russian opposition groups, Putin has not taken any criticism seriously.

The Russians were very pleased with this meeting and have interpreted it as a demonstration that Russia is a major power valued by the United States. There is a risk that the Putin administration will grow arrogant and put more effort into the suppression of domestic opposition and focus on disrupting democratic countries. We must also be careful about the possibility that Russia will strengthen ties with China, as it sees through America’s plan for deterrence there.

At the Group of Seven summit of major industrial nations and the NATO summit that preceded the U.S.-Russian talks, Biden worked to solidify the democratic camp against China and Russia. The U.S. must not lose momentum; it is essential that it takes a firm stand in dealing with Russia’s illegal activities by strengthening sanctions.


米露首脳会談 プーチン氏の増長を阻め

2021/6/19 05:00

クリミア併合や民主主義諸国へのサイバー攻撃など、悪行を重ねてきたロシアのプーチン政権が行動を改めるのか。問われているのは、この一点である。

バイデン米大統領とプーチン露大統領の対面による初の首脳会談がジュネーブで行われた。両首脳は核軍備管理に向けた「戦略的安定対話」を始めることで合意した。サイバー空間の安全保障に関し、専門家の協議体を設けることも決まった。

バイデン氏が今回の会談を行ったのはロシアとの「安定的で予測可能な関係」を築くためだった。中国の抑止に注力するため、ロシアに国際規範を順守させ、破壊的な対外行動をやめさせるという狙いである。

バイデン氏は「ロシアと向き合う上での明確な基礎を築いた」と会談を総括した。米国で大きな被害が出ているロシア発のサイバー攻撃をめぐり、バイデン氏は標的にしてはならない16の重要インフラ分野を会談で例示し、露政府が攻撃に関与すれば報復すると警告した。反体制派指導者、ナワリヌイ氏の投獄などロシア政府による人権侵害についても「問題提起を続ける」と明言した。

だが、プーチン氏が性根を入れ替えると考えるのは楽観的すぎる。プーチン氏は、米大統領選への干渉や露情報機関が関与したサイバー攻撃について一切非を認めなかった。2014年のウクライナ東部紛争でロシアの民兵や情報機関が暗躍したように、表で無関係を装いながら秘密工作活動をさせるのはロシア政府の常套(じょうとう)手段だ。クリミア併合や反体制派の弾圧についても、プーチン氏は批判を全く意に介していない。

ロシア側は今回の会談にすこぶる満足しており、ロシアが米国の重視する大国であることが示されたと解釈している。プーチン政権が増長し、国内の弾圧や対外的な攪乱(かくらん)活動にさらに力を入れる恐れがある。中国抑止に集中したい米国の思惑を見透かし、対中連携を強めることにも警戒が必要だ。

バイデン氏は米露会談に先立つ先進7カ国首脳会議(G7サミット)と北大西洋条約機構(NATO)首脳会議で、中露に対抗すべく民主主義陣営の結束を固めた。この機運を削(そ)いではならず、ロシアの不法行為には制裁強化などで厳しく対処する姿勢を貫くことが肝要である。
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