Biden’s biggest challenge is not necessarily China, but a Europe that has become less loyal to the United States. His biggest challenge may be to hold the Europeans to the responsibility they forgot after Trump. Furthermore, without a strong Europe, the United States cannot pursue new goals. Now comes Biden's most difficult task.
President Joe Biden looked tired as he neared the end of his big European tour last week.
Even though Air Force One, the president's plane, is pure luxury compared to a regular commercial plane, at his age the time difference takes energy.
The president can lie down, sit and stand. He can eat and drink what he wants. For that matter, he may be "admitted" to the plane's hospital if he has a stomach ache, and he is surrounded by advisers who constantly tell him who he will meet next, what he should say, what he should do and what issues he must remember to pay attention to.
And this is true whether he is on his way to the Group of Seven major industrial nations summit in Cornwall, U.K., the NATO Summit in Brussels or the summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva.
Biden is 78; even though he is in better physical and mental shape than his opponents claim, such a schedule is taxing. His agenda for the European meetings was more important than you’d immediately imagine.
He Had To Win the Europeans Over
"Biden's visit to Europe was in great danger and his advisers were nervous. The danger was that Europeans would be lulled to sleep by Biden's loving embrace. That must not happen,"* said an American journalist who attended countless briefings before leaving with the White House press corps.
Biden needed Europe to put pressure on China. However, in many ways, initially, it was even more important to get Europe on the U.S.’s side in regard to China.
But according to American journalists, it seemed more difficult than the Biden administration had imagined.
During the four years Donald Trump spent in the White House, Europeans have become accustomed to increasing unilateral action, including on that type of issue; there were lengthy negotiations on the wording of the closing texts on China that went public.
Many European leaders and officials wanted significantly more leeway vis-a-vis China than the Americans. This created situations in which Biden had to spend all his energy on reaching common ground.
Biden Was Feeling Hot and in a Bad Mood
During the last meeting of the trip with Putin, it became evident that Biden was close to reaching his physical limit. During the press conference under Geneva's relentless sun, Biden took off his jacket, then bent down to find his sunglasses, picked up his jacket again, and started arguing with an American CNN reporter, Kaitlan Collins, who asked a critical question about the summit.
"[Y]ou’re in the wrong business," a frustrated Biden said. He later apologized but added that to be a good reporter, “you have got to have a negative view of life, it seems to me. You never ask a positive question.”
Biden was about to succumb to seven days of intense pressure, which, in turn, led everyone to wonder: Has Biden actually become too old to be president?
And even though the meeting with Putin may not have resulted in major headlines, it was perhaps the most significant one of the three, because it was important for Biden to simply meet with Putin and get a sense of his views.
However, it was also important to get the Europeans to recommit to an unbreakable alliance with the U.S. On the surface, it looked easy. Nevertheless, behind the scenes, it was anything but easy.
As mentioned above, the Europeans have become accustomed to unilateral action. This was something Biden got a lesson in back in January 2021, just before his presidential inauguration. Through his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, he asked the EU to delay entering a cooperation agreement with China until he took office as president, but in vain.
Therefore, during Biden's visit, there was great nervousness. The question of his advisers today is whether the Europeans have misunderstood Biden's declarations of love and whether they believe that when Biden assured his G-7 or NATO colleagues that “America is back,” it means that everything is as it was before Trump.
Because it is not.
Biden Is Bombarded with Good Advice
Biden received more advice before the European tour. But one piece of advice, in particular, came up again at the White House press conferences held before Biden departed for Europe.
It’s important to make the Europeans understand the seriousness of the U.S. agenda. Otherwise, Biden would stand no chance against China.
There are, however, indications that the Europeans may have understood some of the messages, but most have noticed that Biden is the Europeans’ “man” in the White House.
Although Peter Rough is Republican and was director of then-President George W. Bush's research team, a few months ago he put it this way: "[T]he [Biden] administration has leapt right back in, reaping an early harvest of positive headlines under the banner ‘America is back.’ Without addressing the manifold shortcomings identified by its predecessor.” Without addressing the manifold shortcomings identified by its predecessor, the Biden administration has rushed to reenter the World Health Organization and United Nations Human Rights Council, rejoined the Paris Agreement, extended the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, restored funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, and worked feverishly to reenter the Iran nuclear deal.”
“The days of Trumpian leverage are gone, replaced by Bidenesque goodwill as the cornerstone of U.S. strategy. But will goodwill achieve better results?" Rough asked Foreign Policy.
Even though Rough works for the right-wing think tank Hudson Institute, the same question worries Biden's advisers. Has the president been so eager to reassure his European allies that “America is back” that he will find it difficult to implement his China strategy?
Details Are Important
It was evident to everyone that Biden had too much on his plate during his tour. Although younger presidents also have to sharpen their concentration in situations where they constantly have to master every language detail, whether they talk to the French president or the German chancellor. Often through interpreters.
“Biden was out of shape even before the departure. As far as I could see, he did not make any big mistakes at the press conferences apart from a few minor statements, but he does not have the energy that, for example, President Barack Obama or George W. Bush had,”* said one of the journalists who follows him closely in Washington, D.C.
If you lose focus for just a few minutes during a crucial speech, you may have lost your case. Whether Biden did that, time will tell. The discussion is ongoing because Biden's age is a common topic of debate.
The original language publication of this article is accessible with a paid subscription.
*Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, the quoted remarks could not be verified.
Biden skal efter sin Europa-turné holde europæerne fast på løfterne. »Biden har ikke Obamas energi«
Bidens største udfordring er ikke nødvendigvis Kina, men et Europa, som er blevet mindre trofast over for USA. Hans største udfordring kan blive at holde europæerne fast på det ansvar, de har glemt efter Trump. For uden et stærkt Europa kan USA heller ikke forfølge nye mål. Og Bidens sværeste opgave kommer nu.
Den amerikanske præsident, Joe Biden, så træt ud, da han i sidste uge nærmede sig slutningen på sin store Europa-turné.
Tidsforskellen tager energi i hans alder, også selv om Air Force One – præsidentens eget fly – er ren luksus sammenlignet med en almindelig passagermaskine.
Præsidenten kan ligge ned, sidde, stå. Han kan spise og drikke det, han har lyst til. Han kan for den sags skyld blive »indlagt« på flyets hospital, hvis han skulle få et maveonde, og han er omgivet af rådgivere, der uafbrudt fortæller ham, hvem han næste gang skal mødes med, hvad han bør sige, og hvad han skal huske at lægge vægt på.
Og det gælder, uanset om han er på vej til G7-mødet i Cornwall i Storbritannien, NATO-mødet i Bruxelles eller topmødet med den russiske præsident, Vladimir Putin, i Genève.
Biden er 78, og selvom han er i bedre fysisk og psykisk form, end hans modstandere påstår, så tærer sådan et program på kræfterne. Også fordi hans strategi for de europæiske møder var vigtigere, end man umiddelbart forestiller sig.
Europæerne skulle overbevises
»Bidens besøg netop i Europa rummede en stor fare, og hans rådgivere var nervøse. Faren var, at europæerne ville blive lullet alt for meget i søvn af Bidens kærlige omfavnelse. Det måtte ikke ske,« siger en amerikansk journalist, der har deltaget i utallige briefinger inden afrejsen med Det Hvide Hus' pressekorps.
Det var vigtigt, at Biden fik europæerne med på at presse Kina. Men på mange måder var det endnu vigtigere i første omgang blot at få europæerne over på amerikanernes side i det kinesiske spørgsmål.
Men for amerikanske journalister så det ud til at være sværere, end Biden-administrationen havde forestillet sig.
Europæerne er i de fire år, Donald Trump sad i Det Hvide Hus, blevet vant til mere enegang, også i den type spørgsmål, og der var lange forhandlinger om ordlyden i de sluttekster om Kina, der blev sendt videre ud til offentligheden.
Mange europæiske stats- og regeringschefer ønskede betydeligt mere manøvrerum over for Kina end amerikanerne, og det skabte situationer, hvor Biden måtte bruge al sin energi på at tale sig til rette.
Biden havde det varmt og var sur
Under turens sidste møde med Putin kunne man se, at Biden var tæt på at have nået sit fysiske yderpunkt. Under pressekonferencen og Genèves ubarmhjertige sol smed Biden jakken, hvorefter han bukkede sig ned for at finde sine solbriller, samlede jakken op igen og indledte et skænderi med en amerikansk journalist fra tv-stationen CNN, Kaitlan Collins, der stillede et kritisk spørgsmål om topmødet.
»Du har det forkerte job,« sagde en frustreret Biden, der dog senere undskyldte, men tilføjede:
»For at være en god reporter, så skal man åbenbart være negativ. Man skal have en negativ indstilling til livet. I stiller aldrig positive spørgsmål.«
Biden var ved at segne under syv dages intenst pres, hvilket igen fik alle til at stille spørgsmålet: Er Biden i virkeligheden blevet for gammel til at være præsident?
Og selvom mødet med Putin måske ikke resulterede i store overskrifter, var det måske også det mest betydningsfulde af de tre, fordi det var vigtigt for Biden blot at mødes med Putin og få en fornemmelse af, hvor de hver især stod.
Det var dog også vigtigt at få europæerne tilbage i en ubrydelig alliance med USA, og på overfladen så det let ud. Men bag kulisserne var det alt andet.
Europæerne er som sagt blevet vant til at gå enegang, hvilket Biden blev belært om lige inden sin indsættelse som præsident tilbage i januar 2021, hvor han via sin sikkerhedspolitiske rådgiver, Jake Sullivan, forgæves bad EU om at vente med at indgå en samarbejdsaftale med Kina, før han var på plads som præsident.
Så nervøsiteten var stor under Bidens besøg. Spørgsmålet fra hans rådgivere er i dag, om europæerne har misforstået Bidens kærlighedserklæringer og troet, at når Biden forsikrer sine kolleger i G7 eller i NATO om, at »USA er tilbage«, betyder det, at alt er som før Trump.
For det er det ikke.
Biden bombarderes med gode råd
Biden fik inden rejsen til Europa flere råd. Men særligt ét gik igen på de pressekonferencer, der blev holdt i Det Hvide Hus, inden Biden fløj til Europa.
Det ville være vigtigt at få europæerne til at forstå alvoren i USAs dagsorden. Ellers ville Biden ikke have nogen chancer med Kina.
Noget tyder dog på, at europæerne måske nok har forstået noget af budskaberne, men mest har bidt mærke i, at Biden er europæernes »mand« i Det Hvide Hus.
Allerede for nogle måneder siden udtrykte Peter Rough, som ganske vist er republikaner og var direktør for tidligere præsident George W. Bushs forskningsteam, det på denne måde:
»Under dække af 'USA er tilbage' har Biden-administrationen lænet sig tilbage uden at adressere de mangfoldige mangler, som hans forgænger (præsident Donald Trump, red.) gjorde opmærksom på,« siger Peter Rough.
»Biden har skyndt sig tilbage i verdenssundhedsorganisationen WHO, genindtrådt i klimaaftalerne og FNs Menneskeretsråd og arbejder på at vende tilbage til atomaftalen med Iran. Tiden med Trump er ovre og erstattet med goodwill fra Bidens side. Men vil denne goodwill resultere i bedre resultater,« spurgte Peter Rough i Foreign Policy.
Og selvom Rough også sidder i den højreorienterede tænketank Hudson Institute, er det det samme spørgsmål, der bekymrer Bidens rådgivere. Har præsidenten været så ivrig til at forsikre sine europæiske allierede om, at »USA er tilbage«, at han vil få svært ved at gennemføre sin strategi over for Kina?
Nuancerne er vigtige
At Biden gabte over rigtig meget på sin turné, var tydeligt for alle, selvom yngre præsidenter også er nødt til at skærpe koncentrationen i en situation, hvor man døgnet rundt skal kunne ramme de rigtige nuancer i sproget, uanset om det er den franske præsident eller den tyske kansler, man taler med. Ofte med tolkebistand.
»Biden var uoplagt allerede inden afrejsen. Så vidt jeg kunne se, begik han ikke de store fejl på pressekonferencerne ud over nogle mindre fortalelser, men han har ikke den energi, som for eksempel præsidenten Barack Obama eller George W. Bush havde,« siger en af de journalister, der følger ham tæt i Washington, D.C.
Og hvis man mister koncentrationen bare nogle få minutter i en afgørende tale, kan man have tabt sin sag på gulvet. Om Biden gjorde det, vil tiden vise. Men diskussionen kører, fordi Bidens alder er et almindeligt samtaleemne.
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Contrary to what the American president never tires of implying, however, it is not Ukraine and its NATO partners but Putin alone who bears responsibility for this horrific war.