The US-Russia Strategic Talks Should Put an End to Nuclear Arms Expansion

Published in Tokyo Shimbun
(Japan) on 5 August 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by D Baker. Edited by Olivia Parker.
The world's two main nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, have begun talks known as a “Strategic Stability Dialogue” to discuss arms control. It is an opportunity to halt the trend toward nuclear weapon expansion around the world.

As a term, “strategic stability” refers to a state where there is little risk of either side launching a preemptive strike using nuclear weapons.

The talks began at the summit between the U.S. and Russia held in June, with both countries being satisfied with the initial round of discussions.

The Strategic Stability Dialogue will address establishing a new agreement to replace the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty as well as the new fields of cyber and outer space.

Each side has its own priorities for the talks. With Russia possessing a higher number of tactical nuclear weapons, the U.S. is looking to discuss the reduction of such weapons, while Russia wants to talk over missile defense system regulations.

Establishing a forum for dialogue is the first step toward mutual understanding. With the relationship between the two countries currently at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War, we have to hope that this ongoing communication will lead to the easing of tensions.

In its most recent annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden reported that efforts to reduce nuclear weapons, which have been ongoing since the end of the Cold War, have stagnated, and instead, there are signs of a push toward expansion.

This trend can be seen in the United Kingdom's shift in policy from weapons reduction to increasing the upper limit of nuclear warheads from 180 to 260.

SIPRI estimates that the total number of nuclear warheads held by various countries at the start of this year (including those awaiting dismantlement) was 13,080. This represents a slight decrease from the previous year. At the same time, the number of warheads that had been deployed rose from 3,720 to 3,825. Of these, approximately 2,000 were kept in a state of high operational alert, meaning they were ready for deployment in a matter of minutes.

The report said that China “is in the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear weapon inventory,” and estimates that it possesses 350 nuclear warheads, the most of any country after the U.S. and Russia.

The striking trend toward military expansion, including the development of new weapons, is occurring concurrently with a shift from international order being solely dominated by the U.S. to a more uncertain future.

The U.S. and Russia hold 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, and as such, have a responsibility to take the first step and prioritize disarmament to halt an unproductive arms race. This should, in turn, lead to the establishment of a comprehensive nuclear weapon management framework that will also include China.


<社説>米ロの戦略対話 核軍拡の流れをとめよ

核大国の米国とロシアが軍備管理を協議する「戦略的安定対話」が始まった。世界の核軍拡の流れに歯止めをかける契機にしたい。
 戦略的安定とは、双方が核による先制攻撃に踏み切る危険が低い状況をいう。対話は六月の米ロ首脳会談で開始が決まったもので、両国とも初回の協議を前向きに評価した。
 戦略的安定対話では、新戦略兵器削減条約(新START)に代わる新たな条約のほか、サイバー(電脳)、宇宙空間という新領域も議題になる。
 米国はロシアが保有数で勝る戦術核の削減を、ロシアは米国のミサイル防衛システムの規制についてそれぞれ協議したい意向だ。
 話し合いの場ができたことは相互理解への第一歩である。両国関係は冷戦終結後では最悪の状況だ。対話の積み重ねが緊張緩和をもたらすよう期待したい。
 スウェーデンのストックホルム国際平和研究所(SIPRI)は最新の年次報告書で、冷戦終結以降続いた核兵器削減の流れが停滞し、増加に転じる兆候もみられると指摘した。
 実際、英国は削減方針を転換して核弾頭保有数の上限を百八十発から二百六十発に引き上げた。
 SIPRIの推計では、各国が保有する核弾頭は今年初め時点で、廃棄待ちも含めると一万三千八十発。前年よりわずかに減った。逆に配備済みの弾頭数は三千七百二十発から三千八百二十五発に増えた。このうち約二千発が数分以内に発射できる即応態勢下に置かれている。
 報告書は中国については「核兵器の著しい近代化と拡大のまっ最中にある」とし、保有数を米ロに次ぐ三百五十発と推計した。
 新兵器開発を含めて軍拡の動きが目立つのは、国際秩序が米一極支配の時代から、先行き不透明な時代に移ったことも背景にある。
 不毛な軍拡競争を食い止めるために、世界の核兵器の九割を占める米ロには率先して軍縮を進める責任がある。そこから中国も加わる包括的な核管理の枠組みの構築につなげてほしい。
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