It’s Inflation, Stupid!

Published in Asia Economy
(South Korea) on 17 November 2021
by Baek Jongmin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jihyun Eom. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
A diplomat I met a while ago said life has gotten harder these days. With food and oil prices hitting new highs at the same time, the cost of living has skyrocketed while salaries have largely remained the same. Even from the perspective of a diplomat, the current price surge was no trivial matter.

As inflation in the U.S. soared to 6.2%, the highest it has been in 30 years, many have said how anxious they are when they have to go to the grocery store or the gas station.

The increase in consumer prices has accelerated in recent months. A bag of rice that used to cost $10.90 now costs at least $13. The new price reflects the fact that store owners had to account for inflation after all bags at the old price sold out.

When I first came to the U.S., an acquaintance of mine described it as the “land of meat.” The remark was meant to convey that meat is cheap here, so I could eat as much as I wanted. But the situation has changed, and the price of meat has increased sharply. While food prices rose by only 0.9% in September, beef prices rose by an overwhelming 17.6%.

I had to pay $16 for a piece of brisket, which used to cost $10. I used to frequent the meat counter to purchase skirt steak at a price that was comparably lower than in Korea; skirt steak has long since disappeared from the store. Meat was also unavailable for purchase in the spring of last year, when COVID-19 was in full swing. However, there was no accompanying increase in meat prices.

In both South Korea and the U.S., the popularity of national leaders plummets when consumer prices rise. A recent poll revealed that Americans blame inflation on President Joe Biden.

The price of gasoline is a good example of the impact inflation is having. Currently, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. is $3.40 per gallon. The price of diesel fuel used for transportation, is as high as $3.60 per gallon. The per-gallon price of gasoline a year ago was $2.10.

Since taking office, President Biden has focused only on restoring programs that respond to climate change, programs which former President Donald Trump tossed aside. Biden revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline project and proposed a ban on new oil drilling on federal land. The American “Shale Revolution” of the 2010s is now a thing of the past. Having already lost their production base, shale companies are proceeding to liquidate their businesses instead of producing new oil even though oil prices have risen above production costs.

The administration’s diplomatic efforts to increase oil production were also disappointing. While calling for a global response to climate change, the White House has simultaneously asked oil producers to increase production. Needless to say, no oil producer in the U.S. responded. It doesn’t seem likely that Saudi Arabia, branded a human rights violator by the Biden administration, and Russia, a permanent enemy of the U.S., will increase their oil production, and neither will other oil producers who are following their lead. This certainly raises questions about President Biden’s diplomatic expertise.

The market already foresees higher oil prices next year. Bank of America projected that oil prices may be as high as $120 per barrel by June 2022. It would not be unreasonable to predict that gas prices will also increase above $4.00 per gallon. In the oil price surge of 2012, American shale gas acted as a buffer to lessen the impact of the surge. Now that shale gas has lost most of its influence, it is unclear how the U.S. will induce a reduction in oil prices.

The inflation is a tragedy brought about by a ruthless, radical attempt at abandoning fossil fuels without considering the consequences. The surge in oil prices is a harbinger of a great shakeup that will destabilize Biden’s entire support base. Yet, as if it were delusional, the Biden administration is again blaming COVID-19 for inflation.

Bill Clinton rose to the presidency in 1992 with his iconic slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid!” If he were to run for office today, he would more likely say “It’s the inflation, stupid!” And if anyone wants to know how this applies to South Korea, I would say, “It’s the housing prices, stupid!”





얼마 전 만난 외교가 인사는 요즘 삶이 팍팍해졌다면서 안부를 물어왔다. 식비, 유류비 등 생활 물가가 일제히 급등했는데 월급은 제자리라는 의미였다. 일반 서민이 아니라 외교관에게도 물가 상승은 예사롭지 않았다.

미국의 인플레이션이 30년 사이 최고치인 6.2%까지 치솟으면서 장보기, 주유소 가기가 무서워졌다는 한숨이 곳곳에서 들린다.

최근에는 물가 상승세가 더 가팔라진 모습이다. 평소 10.9달러에 살 수 있었던 쌀 한 포대가 13달러를 넘어섰다. 기존 가격에 입고된 쌀이 모두 판매된 후 가격 상승이 반영된 셈이다.

미국에 처음 왔을 때 한 지인은 ‘미국은 고기의 나라’라고 했다. 고기 값이 싸니 맘껏 육류를 소비하라는 조언이었다. 상황은 달라졌다. 고기 값은 천정부지로 치솟았다. 지난 9월까지 식품류 물가가 0.9% 올랐지만 쇠고기 값은 17.6%나 치솟았다.

한 덩이에 10달러면 살 수 있던 양지 부위는 16달러는 줘야 했다. 한국과 비교해 가격이 싸 자주 먹었던 안창살은 정육점 매대에서 사라진 지 오래다. 코로나19가 한창이던 지난해 봄에는 고기가 없어서 살 수 없었지만, 가격은 오르지 않았었다.

물가가 치솟으면 국가 지도자의 인기가 추락하는 건 한국이나 미국이 매한가지다. 최근 여론조사에서 미국인들은 바이든 대통령이 물가 상승의 배경이라고 답하고 있다.

대표적인 예가 휘발유 값이다. 현재 미국 휘발유 평균가는 갤런당 3.4달러다. 운송용 연료인 디젤유는 3.6달러에 이른다. 1년 전 휘발유 값은 2.1달러였다.

바이든 대통령은 취임 후 도널드 트럼프 전 대통령에 의해 훼손된 기후변화 대응 회복에만 주력했다. 송유관 사업에 대한 승인을 취소했고 국유지에서 원유 신규 시추를 금지했다. 2010년대 미국발 ‘셰일 에너지 혁명’은 이제 옛말이 됐다. 이미 생산 기반을 상실한 셰일 업체들은 유가가 생산 원가 이상으로 상승했음에도 원유 생산 대신 사업 청산에 나서고 있다.

원유 증산을 위한 외교 노력도 0점이다. 백악관은 기후 변화 대응에 외치면서도 산유국에 석유 증산을 요청했다. 역시나 미국의 요청을 귀담아들은 산유국은 없다. 바이든 정부에 의해 인권 유린국으로 낙인찍힌 사우디아라비아, 미국의 영원한 적성국 러시아가 주도하는 산유국들은 증산에 나설 계획이 없어 보인다. 외교 전문가라는 바이든 대통령의 능력에 의문점이 찍히는 대목이다.

시장은 이미 내년 유가 전망을 높이고 있다. 뱅크오브아메리카(BOA)는 내년 유가 전망을 배럴당 120달러로 제시했을 정도다. 미국 휘발유 값이 4달러를 넘어설 것이라는 예상도 어렵지 않다. 2012년 유가 상승 시 완충 역할을 했던 미국산 셰일 석유의 존재감이 없어진 만큼 미국이 유가 하락을 유도할 방안이 뚜렷하지 않다.

부작용을 고려하지 않은 급진적인 화석에너지 탈출 전략이 몰고 온 비극이다. 유가 급등은 바이든의 지지기반을 흔드는 대형 지진을 예고한다. 그런데도 바이든 정부는 인플레가 코로나19 탓이라는 소리만 되풀이하고 있다. 이 정도면 착각도 자유다.

1992년 미국 대선에서 빌 클린턴을 대통령으로 이끈 선거 구호인 ‘바보야, 문제는 경제야’를 현재 버전으로 수정한다면 ‘바보야, 문제는 인플레이션이야’가 아닐까. 한국에서라면 당연히 ‘바보야, 문제는 집값이야’일 것이다.
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