America’s Withdrawal from the Middle East Does Not Mean a Lack of Opportunity

When it comes to the political scene in the Middle East, the idea that America is headed for a withdrawal from the region is spreading quickly and has created overlapping debates about the reality of America leaving. When you draw a strategic map of the region, you need to ask the Biden administration pointed questions about its intentions in the area. To get a clearer picture of America’s plans, the U.S. needs to sharply define the idea of withdrawal in terms of how the U.S. would carry it out. America’s national security strategy entails a specific form of commitment when it comes to the vibrant Middle East region, but there is a disconnect in how the U.S. applies this strategy and how it is structured.

The American shift toward the Pacific will certainly be costly on several fronts if it comes at the price of lost American strategic opportunities in the Middle East. It is widely known that, for the past four decades, America has been trying to determine how it would crowd out Chinese supremacy, especially trade, as America tries to break commercial ties with China to a certain degree. The first possibility is to simply adopt a policy of strategic superiority and siphon off China’s influence on the American economy. However, this poses a threat to American national security, even though the idea enjoys a lot of political support at home, as a number of studies confirm. Yet, there is an important question about American and Chinese competition in the Middle East. Is China a potential strategic alternative for countries there? Is America considering adopting a strategy that places it further from the region militarily but closer in terms of strategic control?

The American concept of withdrawal from the Middle East is wedged in a narrow space between two issues, commitment and withdrawal. It’s a matter of staying in the region or leaving and building a strategy based only on those issues that require American intervention there. The other question is whether it is possible to achieve such a strategy in light of the major crises in the region, whether it is Iran and the expansion of its militia, anxiety about a resurgence of terrorism or the Arab-Israeli conflict. It seems like it would be difficult for America to simply make a clean break and withdraw from the Middle East. But the greatest concern for America is not only how to withdraw, but how to still create opportunities in spite of the region’s challenges, and regardless of the balance of power between America and its current rivals. Ultimately, the idea of American withdrawal is a great opportunity for other countries in the region, wealthy or not.

It is important to note that the idea of commitment in exchange for withdrawal requires a careful dismantling of how America deals with protecting the treaties it has signed with its allies. And this raises another important question: Does America have the strength to continue its commitment to countries in the Middle East, just as it has with its NATO allies, or Japan and Israel? These ideas are at the core of the intellectual and political debate in a region of global importance. The Middle East cannot tolerate behavior without predictable results, especially when explanations about what American intervention will look like are subject to debate, discussion and interpretation.

American military intervention in the region, which reached a height in the 1990s and gradually accelerated further after the events of 9/11, is now facing a possible retreat. The last three American presidents have taken this approach with the joint support of the Republican and Democratic parties, and it is clear that this strategy will not be reversed, regardless of whether the president is a Republican or a Democrat. But the challenge remains as to how to reconcile America being less present but more influential in a region characterized by heightened political, popular and economic issues in the midst of increased competition in the region.

America’s experience in the Middle East has proven historically that it has been unable to shape the geopolitics of the region, and this is clearly proven by Iran’s wars and intervention there as well as by the alarming slowdown in decisively resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. This is important evidence for the Middle East and the Gulf states that America, whether led by Republicans or Democrats, has no plans to back down from withdrawal. This means countries in the region must start looking at existing gateways to political opportunities, whether in the form of settlements within the region or alliances outside of it, in order to achieve political goals and strategic security in the region.