Expert Eye: Ukraine Is a Foregone Conclusion. Watch for a Grand US About-Face

Published in United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 2 March 2022
by Yang Ying-chao (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Despite indications of an uptick in fighting in Ukraine [since the beginning of March], the country’s fate was sealed from the moment the Russian military invaded and declared its nuclear forces on high alert. Ukraine will lose territory once again and become a buffer zone between Russia and the West.

For Taiwan, the next point to watch will be how quickly the United States can free itself from its sanctions against Russia, as the speed with which it does so will be indicative of the firmness of its resolve in containing the Chinese Communist Party. Furthermore, like it or loathe it, the Taiwanese should be thinking about what the prospect of Finlandization* could mean for Taiwan.

The reason for calling Ukraine a foregone conclusion is that it is in the interests of the United States, China and Russia to create a tense but noncombative situation in Europe; Ukraine’s vulnerability and burgeoning status as a buffer zone fulfill this requirement. For the United States, Ukraine historically falls within the former Soviet Union’s sphere of influence, at a time when it would have been difficult for the United States to confront both the USSR and the Chinese Communist Party. Now that the United States’ influence has waned, it will inevitably want to prevent China and Russia from entering into any long-term alliance.

Based on this premise, it is wholly unrealistic to see the United States insisting on an Indo-Pacific strategy on the one hand, while attempting to bring down Russia through war and international sanctions on the other. The expulsion of specific Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system raises the question as to why, in the past, the United States has gone to the trouble of only sanctioning Hong Kong officials and terrorists through U.S. banks or banks that do business with them. It could also lead to China and Russia forging closer economic ties, something that probably will not take long to be implemented.

In addition, the United States wants a European Union that is united beneath it and willing to share the cost of military spending. After the Cold War, their attitudes toward Russia diverged. During Donald Trump’s presidency, France and Germany were repeatedly asked to raise military spending, but Chancellor Angela Merkel kept the defense budget consistently below 2% of the gross domestic product. Several days into the war between Russia and Ukraine, countries including Germany and France have taken uniform steps to resist Russia; more importantly, Germany has announced that it will substantially increase its military spending, putting more than 2% of its GDP into defense and immediately investing 100 billion euros into upgrading its military equipment.

Since a well-oiled global economy is in the Chinese Communist Party’s interest, the tense situation in Europe may distract the United States, which will be able to make use of the opportunity to expand its influence, but the situation must not get out of hand. Here we can see the recent narrative out of Beijing, namely that the crisis in Ukraine has pushed Russia to the front line of conflict with the West, and that the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to finally take a back seat again will create a post-9/11 strategic buffer period, which will once more play out in its favor.

During this period, other than the countries involved looking to the Chinese Communist Party for support, we also note that when Josep Borrell Fontelles, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called Beijing, apart from discussing the situation in Ukraine and confirming the agenda for this year’s meeting between European and Chinese leaders, the Chinese Communist Party seized the opportunity to pressure the EU into urging Lithuania to return as soon as possible to the “proper track of the One China principle.”

Given the determination of the aforementioned powers and the limits of U.S. power, we can almost be certain that the situation in Ukraine will run its course, and that the United States will have to make a strategic choice. The recent series of favorable developments in Ukraine, including news of its formal application for EU membership, are merely political moves to raise the bar in negotiations.

For Taiwan, several subsequent developments will be worthy of attention: First, how soon the United States withdraws its sanctions against Russia. The longer the United States drags out the issue of Russian sanctions, the more difficult it will be to deal with the Chinese Communist Party. The stalemate in the war is a test of the United States’ strategic wisdom, and Joe Biden’s sudden sending of a delegation to Taiwan is a sign of his strategic intent.

Second, pay attention to the Finnish model: The realities of international politics have never been shifted by the wills of small countries. Although the Ukrainians had insights into their larger neighbor’s way of thinking, they still insisted on pushing NATO membership through their constitution, leading to the bitter consequences seen today. Ultimately, they will have to conform to Russia’s will. This is similar to the experience of Finland in the 1930s, which was first taught a lesson by the USSR, before being “Finlandized” during the Cold War.

The world has long been at peace and forgotten the suffering of war, and even Finland is showing signs of relaxing. However, to paraphrase our National Defense Minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng: Is there ever a time when the situation in the Taiwan Strait is not tense? We must think about how to deal with war.

Of course, forewarned is forearmed, but it is not a bad thing to have other options. In the past, it was argued that bending the knee over issues of sovereignty would not bring about peace. Notwithstanding the fact that this debate continues to the present day, has sovereignty been lost? Or alternatively, which of Taiwan’s parties has lost more of Taiwan’s sovereignty while in power? The point of Finlandization is not whether bending the knee can bring about peace, but rather that small countries do not actively draw fire in the game of the great powers: The important thing is to stay the course. The Ukraine crisis reminds us that, for the great powers, there are so many strategic points to fight over. Should we prioritize the low-profile neighbor or the pawn of our rival? Finland’s perseverance, maintained right up to the collapse of the former Soviet Union, may well be a point of reflection.

*Editor’s Note: Finlandization refers to the process by which a small country is inclined to favor, or not to oppose, the interests of a more powerful country despite not being politically allied with it.


【專家之眼】烏克蘭大局已定 看美國多快華麗轉身

2022-03-02 07:55 聯合報 / 楊穎超 / 銘傳大學副教授

儘管這兩天烏克蘭戰事有升高跡象,但該國命運早在俄軍入侵與宣稱核武進入高度戒備狀態後,就已確定:烏克蘭將再失國土,也會成為俄與西方的緩衝地帶。

對台灣來說,接下來的看點,是美國多快從制裁俄羅斯的行動中脫身,這個速度,可以觀察美國遏制中共的決心到底有多堅定。此外,不管喜歡與否,台人也該思考芬蘭化對台灣的意義。

說烏克蘭大局已定,是因為美中俄的利益,是在歐洲形成一個緊繃又不會打起來的局面。烏國脆弱且成為緩衝地帶的發展符合這個要求。對美國來說,烏國過去是前蘇聯的勢力範圍,而那時美就難以負荷同時對抗前蘇聯與中共,現在國力更差,勢必要避免讓中俄長期結盟。

在此前提下,說美國既堅持印太戰略,又企圖以戰爭和國際制裁拖垮俄羅斯,這並不現實。而將特定俄羅斯銀行逐出環球銀行金融電信協會(SWIFT)支付系統,既讓人好奇過去美國制裁港府官員與恐怖分子,都只透過美國銀行或與其有業務往來的銀行,這次為何大費周章?而此亦可能讓中俄經濟連結更緊密,恐怕不會實施太久。

此外,美國還要一個團結在美國之下、又願分攤軍費的歐盟。冷戰後他們對俄態度分歧,川普任內也曾多次要求法德提高軍費,但時任德國總理梅克爾始終將國防預算控制在GDP的2%以下。在烏俄戰火延燒多日後,德法等國已取得齊一步調抗俄,更重要的是,德國已宣佈將大幅增加軍費開支,把2%以上的GDP投資於國防上,並立即投入1000億歐元更新軍備。

至於中共,歐洲局勢緊張,可能讓美國分心,它能趁機擴大影響力,但局勢又不能失控,一個運轉順暢的全球經濟符合它的利益。在此我們可見中共最近流傳的說法:烏克蘭危機把俄羅斯推向西方衝突第一線,中共則終於再度退居次席,這將形成911事件後再次有利中共的戰略緩衝期。

而在此期間內,除了當事國皆向中共尋求支持外,我們還可留意,當歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表致電北京時,中共除討論烏克蘭局勢、確認今年歐中領導人會晤議程外,更藉機施壓歐盟敦促立陶宛:「儘快回到一個中國原則的正確軌道上來」。

由於上述強權意志與美國國力限制,我們幾可確定,烏克蘭局勢走向,以及美國必須做出戰略選擇。最近烏國一連串形勢有利,包括正式申請加入歐盟消息,只是為拉高談判籌碼的政治動作。

對台灣來說,一些後續發展值得關注:一、美國多快退出制裁俄羅斯:美國在制裁俄羅斯議題上拖的越久,就越難以對付中共。戰況膠著形勢考驗美國的戰略智慧,而拜登突然派代表團訪問台灣,已可見其戰略意向。

二、注意芬蘭模式:國際政治現實一向不以小國意志為轉移。烏克蘭人雖知強鄰想法,但還是硬把加入北約入憲,導致今日苦果,最後仍要配合俄羅斯意志。這與芬蘭在1930年代先被蘇聯教訓,才在冷戰時期「芬蘭化」的經驗如出一轍。

世界承平日久,多已忘記戰火苦難,連芬蘭都有鬆動跡象。然而,套句我國防部長邱國正的話:台海情勢有不緊張的時候嗎?我們必須思考如何應對戰爭。

當然,最高優先是備戰,但有其他選擇並非壞事。過去有人認為,在主權議題卑躬屈膝,不能換來和平。且不說目前還在爭論,主權有沒丟掉?或者,誰執政時,丟掉較多中華民國主權?芬蘭化的重點不在屈膝能否換和平,而在小國不往大國博弈裡主動引火上身,重要的是比氣長。烏克蘭危機提醒我們,對大國來說,該爭的戰略要地那麼多,優先處理的是一個低調不為先的鄰居,還是對手的馬前卒?而芬蘭的堅持,最後撐到前蘇聯的崩潰,或許也是一個思考點。
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