History Is the Best Teacher: Lessons for Today’s US-China Relations on the 50th Anniversary of Nixon’s Visit to China

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 1 March 2022
by He Weiwen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Fifty years ago, the week of Feb. 21-28 was one that shook the world. At the invitation of Premier Zhou Enlai, President Richard Nixon made a groundbreaking visit to China, paving the way for the normalization of China-U.S. relations. It was an event significant enough to go down in world history in the second half of the 20th century, and a major milestone in the history of relations between the world’s great powers and the history of world peace.

On Jan. 1, 1979, nearly seven years after Nixon’s visit, China and the United States formally established diplomatic relations. The dismantlement of the Iron Curtain and the normalization of relations between the superpower of the West and the great powers of the East brought fundamental guarantees of cooperation and economic development between China and the United States, and made a major contribution toward world peace. At around the same time as the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the Third Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China established the policy of “reform and opening up,” marking the rise of China’s economy and its integration into the world economy. 2001 saw China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, further facilitating the Chinese economy’s globalization process, with relatively smooth relations between the two countries after diplomatic relations were established, and investment, technology and markets from the United States played a significant role. China’s rapid industrialization, huge and relatively inexpensive labor resources, and enormous markets have also provided a major impetus to the United States’ economic development. Both China and the United States have benefited greatly as a result.

The Tremendous Practical Significance of Nixon’s China Visit

Although half a century has passed since Nixon’s visit to China, the event provides a rich and profound historical experience that still holds great relevance today.

Great Powers with Different Ideologies, Social Systems, Entirely Capable of Mutually Profitable Cooperation

First, it proves that great powers with very different social systems and completely opposing ideologies can indeed establish normal national relations that are mutually beneficial. The United States is the No. 1 capitalist power; China is a major Eastern power led by the Chinese Communist Party, guided by Marxist-Leninist and Maoist thought, and operating a socialist system — but the leaders of China and the United States respect each other. Respect for one’s rivals and for each other’s completely different values precludes ideological interference in international relations.

Second, it shows that the fundamental way to establish and uphold cordial national relations between great powers with totally opposing social systems and ideologies is to bring about peaceful coexistence under the principles of the U.N. Charter: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, nonaggression, noninterference in one another’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit. After repeated negotiations, the United States recognizes that the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing China, and that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. The United States has also refrained from conspicuous interference in China’s domestic affairs.

Third, it proves that, as long as the two fundamental principles mentioned above are followed, great powers with diametrically opposed social systems and ideologies can fully engage in full cooperation with respect to trade, investment, science, technology, education, culture and tourism, and can achieve a scale and level of cooperation that exceeds that between countries with the same social systems and ideologies. In the 42 years from 1979 to 2021, once China and the United States had established diplomatic relations, bilateral trade between the two nations grew from $2.48 billion to $755.645 billion, a 306-fold increase and the fastest-growing, largest-scale bilateral trade development in recent world history. The Trump and Biden administrations’ intensified anti-China policies of recent years have been hugely detrimental to bilateral cooperation, but have failed to halt its development.

Good Bilateral Relations Stem from Political Vision, Perseverance of Leaders on Both Sides

The success of Nixon’s visit to China and the thaw in relations between China and the United States had much to do with Nixon’s vision and courage, and with Henry Kissinger’s wisdom. Of course, the United States’ primary motivation was to unite with China against the Soviet Union. The political foresight, wisdom and perseverance of Chinese leaders Mao Zedong and Zhou were even more decisive factors.

When New China* was first established, diplomatic policy, as defined by Mao and Zhou, made it clear that in addition to actively developing relations with the Eastern Bloc and with Asian, African and Latin American countries, great importance should simultaneously be attached to establishing and developing diplomatic relations with Western countries. After the Geneva Summit of 1955, Zhou decided to initiate ambassadorial level talks between China and the United States. Between August 1955 and December 1970, 136 talks were held; the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France in 1964 was an important marker and impetus for relations with the West. In March 1971, Mao, quickly seizing the opportunity for some Ping-Pong diplomacy, pushed for a thawing of relations between China and the United States. The same year, Kissinger paid a secret visit to China for 13 hours of intensive talks with Zhou, coming away impressed by his political vision, firmness and extraordinary insight.

Has US Policy of China Engagement Failed?

China Integrating into Multilateral System and Rules, Not US System and Rules

The American scholar John Mearsheimer argued that the main failure of U.S. policy on China was to allow China to integrate into the liberal capitalist system before fulfilling specific conditions, but this claim was factually unsubstantiated. Politically and economically, China has been integrating into multilateral systems centered on the U.N. and the WTO, respectively, not the liberal capitalist system that Americans consider themselves to be. China’s restoration to its rightful seat in the U.N. was conditional on a majority vote of the General Assembly, not on any other “specific conditions.” From the 1960s onward, there was growing support in the U.N. for China to reclaim its seat; in 1970, the General Assembly vote was already more than half in China’s favor, and was delayed for a year due only to the imposition by the United States of a two-thirds majority rule. In October 1971, just prior to Nixon’s visit to China, the proposal was approved by a two-thirds majority in the U.N. General Assembly. From that date forward, China was reinstated as a member of the United Nations and as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.

Similarly, China’s 1986 application to resume its status as a contracting party of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and its accession to the World Trade Organization after the WTO was established in 1995 were negotiated according to the relevant provisions of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and later the WTO rules, and were not conducted pursuant to the United States’ own “specific conditions.” Although agreements were negotiated and reached on a case-by-case basis with all WTO members at the time, including with the United States, the GATT and WTO rules and regulations could not be subverted by the United States’ terms of negotiation, so no separate and illegitimate “specific conditions” could be imposed here, either. The commitments ultimately agreed on in China’s WTO accession protocol were also multilateral commitments, made strictly in keeping with the requirements of WTO regulations, and were not bilateral commitments made to the United States. Whether China’s accession to the multilateral mechanism has “failed” is measured by its compliance with the U.N. Charter and WTO regulations and is for the United Nations and the WTO’s General Council to determine. The United States is only one among the 194 U.N. member states and 164 WTO members, so its judgment is naturally not valid.

Multilateral Regimes Do Not Change the Sovereignty and Social Systems of Their Members

The sovereignty of its member states and noninterference in their internal affairs is the cornerstone of the U.N. Charter. In the 77 years since the U.N. was founded, no member state has changed its sociopolitical system as a consequence of membership. Similarly, the WTO is an organization that governs the rules of trade; it does not get involved in the sociopolitical systems of its members. In the postwar period, many countries have changed their sociopolitical systems due to color revolutions fomented by Western countries such as the United States, but not one has changed as a result of joining the United Nations or the WTO. Former President Bill Clinton tried to persuade Congress to approve a WTO agreement with China, on the grounds it would lead to the China’s gradual democratization, but this was merely rhetoric. There is clearly no rational basis today for turning back the clock.

China’s Power Is Not 'Made in the USA'

Over the past 50 years, especially in the past 43 years of reform and opening up, China has continued to grow rapidly, both economically and in terms of Comprehensive National Power.** In 2021, nominal gross domestic product increased 312.76 times compared to 1978 (prior to reform and opening up), the equivalent of $17.7 trillion and reaching 77% of United States surpassing that of the combined 27 member nations of the EU and making China the second-largest economic power in the world. China’s CNP and international influence have also increased as never before, but none of this has been due primarily to the United States; rather, it has been the fruit of China’s own efforts, under the central government’s policy of reform and opening up. This policy and the marked acceleration in China’s economic growth began in the early 1980s with agricultural and rural reforms that greatly liberated agricultural productivity, with the United States playing little part in it.

Nor did the rise of China’s economy and import/export trade begin after it joined the WTO. The 1990s witnessed the fastest economic growth, the main driver of which has been domestic over the last 40 years or so. In 1980, 98.2% of China’s GDP growth came from domestic consumption and investment, with net exports contributing only 1.8%. The net export contribution rose to 10.1% in 2005 and to 20.9% in 2021, but domestic consumption and investment still account for around 80%.

Goods, investments, technology and services from the United States, as well as the market that the United States provides, have played their part in China’s economic take-off, and this should be acknowledged — but they have not been the main driver. Over the past decade, direct investment from the United States has accounted for about 2% of China’s total utilized foreign investment, far less than Japan, Korea and the EU. The United States' share of China’s technology imports is around one-third, with Europe and Japan also being important sources.

US Also Benefits from China-US Economic and Trade Cooperation

The remarkable development of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation over the past 40 years is one of history’s marvels. From the 1979 establishment of diplomatic relations and resumption of trade between China and the United States up to 2021, bilateral trade increased from $2.5 billion to $755 billion, a 307-fold cumulative increase in 42 years. Even the trade war and massive tech crackdown launched by the U.S. government against China since 2018 have not derailed the sheer scale and duration in growth, unparalleled in recent human history. What makes this staggering growth sustainable is that both China and the United States are reaping the benefits, and those benefits are relatively balanced.

From 2001 to 2021, 20 years after China’s accession to the WTO, U.S. exports worldwide grew from $731 billion to $1.75 trillion, a cumulative increase of 139.8%. U.S. exports to China increased from $19.4 billion to $151 billion over the same period, an increase of 678.9%. Not only is this equivalent to more than four times the growth rate of its global exports, but it is also much higher than the growth rate of U.S. imports from China (393.7%) over the same period. A related U.S. study reports that exports to China have supported 1.1 million employment opportunities in the United States. More than 70,000 U.S. companies invested in China have annual sales there of over $600 billion.

Investments in China by Silicon Valley tech giants General Electric, General Motors and Tesla have indeed played a non-negligible role in the development of China’s new generation of information technology, new energy vehicles, network aircraft and other industries. But the Chinese market has simultaneously played an irreplaceable role in their survival and development. Among the top 10 U.S. semiconductor companies, such as Intel, Qualcomm, Micron and Texas Instruments, 23% to 80% of their sales are realized in the Chinese market, without which their sales would not be large enough to support huge and sustained investments in research and development.

One of the fundamental reasons why the United States’ productivity growth has been ahead of Europe and Japan over the past decade is the continued and substantial investment in next-generation information and communication technologies. The Chinese market has therefore helped U.S. tech giants to grow and maintain their leadership position. In 2020, sales through Apple’s App Store reached $643 billion, of which the Chinese market accounted for approximately $300 billion, or 46.7%, far exceeding the turnover of the U.S. market ($175 billion). In 2021, Tesla reached global sales of 920,000 alternative fuel vehicles, half of which came from the company’s Shanghai megafactory. In 2009, General Motors declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with only GM China turning over a profit to help stave off liquidation.

Cooperation between the United States and China is therefore a mutually beneficial, two-way street, with each country aiding the other’s economic development.

A curious argument likens the United States to a farmer, and China to a snake.*** It claims that the United States has nurtured China into being a powerhouse, and that China, in turn, has challenged the United States. This could not be further from the truth. The United States has never been a farmer, nor has China ever been a snake.

China Does Not Challenge Global Order or Pose a Threat to US

The United States cannot define global order according to its own hegemonic needs; that can only happen by way of the U.N. Charter, which China has abided by and upheld for the past 50 years, playing a constructive role within the United Nations system, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the WTO, the Group of 20 and the APEC mechanism. The United States considers China’s growth a challenge to its own status and security, but this position is devoid of both logic and fact.

China needs to continue to develop its economy together with all countries, and in order to guarantee a good life for its population of 1.4 billion. China’s population is four times that of the United States; if China’s GDP per capita were to reach just one-third that of the U.S., its total capacity would exceed that of the United States. But this poses no threat. In 2021, the United States already had a GDP per capita of $69,000, one-third of which is $23,000 — still not at the level of developed countries. Every country in the world has the right to build itself up to developed nation status through its own efforts. Why shouldn’t China be able to, and why should China be considered a threat to the United States? It defies all logic.

Draw on History, Promote Return to Path of Cooperation in China-US Relations on Basis of Peaceful Coexistence

From the Trump administration to the Biden administration, the United States has always regarded China as its No. 1 adversary, suppressing it on all fronts and engineering the current difficult situation in U.S.-China relations. The root cause of this is that the United States cannot tolerate being outpaced economically and technologically by China, whose ideology, value, and social system differ completely from its own. It cannot tolerate China’s international influence posing a threat to its hegemony. As a result, one of the United States’ basic strategies is to ignore Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity and crudely interfere in its domestic affairs. The U.S. has constantly crossed China’s red lines on a range of issues relating to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, all of which runs precisely contrary to the founding spirit of the Shanghai Communiqué issued by China and the United States during Nixon’s visit to China 50 years ago. It amounts to heading into a blind alley.

It’s worth revisiting the following excerpt from the Shanghai Communiqué:

“There are essential differences between China and the United States in their social systems and foreign policies. However, the two sides agreed that countries, regardless of their social systems, should conduct their relations on the principles of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, non-aggression against other states, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. International disputes should be settled on this basis, without resorting to the use or threat of force. The United States and the People’s Republic of China are prepared to apply these principles to their mutual relations.”

If China-U.S. relations have deteriorated to such an extent today, is it not precisely because the United States has departed from these principles? Conversely, were we to return to the spirit of the Shanghai Communiqué, not only would relations between China and the United States be easy to manage, but the two could make a significant contribution to world peace and be of great benefit to the peoples of both countries, as the facts of the past 50 years have repeatedly proved.

History is our best teacher. The hope is that the Chinese and U.S. governments and peoples will work together to encapsulate the history of China-U.S. relations over the past 50 years in a way that is objective and fair; and that they will continue to safeguard the basic norms, as set forth in the Shanghai Communiqué, for handling relations between the two countries, so as to get back on the track of cooperation based on peaceful coexistence, for the benefit of the world and for the benefit of both peoples.

The author is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization think tank, and a former Economic and Commercial Counselor at China’s Consulates General in San Francisco and New York.

*Translator's note: "New China" is a term for the People's Republic of China, established in 1949.
**Editor’s note: Comprehensive National Power is a measure of the general power of a nation-state and important to the contemporary political thinking in the People’s Republic of China.
***Translator's note: This is a reference to Aesop’s fable, "The Farmer & the Snake," warning readers "not to take pity on a scoundrel."


历史是最好的老师——尼克松访华50周年给今天中美关系的启示

来源:环球网
作者:何伟文

2022-03-01 10:58

50年前的2月21日至28日,是震撼世界的一周。应周恩来总理邀请,美国总统尼克松实现了访问中国的破冰之旅,开辟了中美关系正常化的进程。它是20世纪下半叶足以载入世界史的重大事件,也是世界大国关系史和世界和平史的一个重大里程碑。

尼克松访华将近7年后,1979年1月1日,中美两国宣布正式建交。西方的霸主和东方大国打破铁幕,实现关系正常化,为中美两国的合作和经济发展带来了根本保障,也为世界和平做出重大贡献。和中美建交差不多同时开始的中国共产党十届三中全会确定改革开放方针,开始了中国经济的腾飞,也开始了中国经济融入世界经济的过程。2001年中国加入世贸组织,进一步促进了中国经济的全球化进程。中美建交后两国关系的相对平稳,和来自美国的投资、技术和市场,起到了重大推动作用。中国迅速工业化的进程,巨大的、相对低廉的劳动力资源和庞大的市场,也为美国经济发展提供了重大动力。中美双方都因此获得巨大利益。

一. 尼克松访华的巨大现实意义

尼克松访华虽然已经过去半个世纪,但它提供的历史经验非常丰富和深刻,对今天仍然具有极大的现实意义。

(一)不同意识形态和社会制度的大国完全可以合作共赢

第一,它证明,社会制度截然不同,意识形态完全对立的大国,完全可以建立正常的国家关系,并使双方得益。美国是头号资本主义大国,中国是中国共产党领导、马克思列宁主义和毛泽东思想指导、实行社会主义制度的东方大国。但中美两国领导人相互尊重。尊重对手,尊重对方完全不同的价值观,排除了意识形态对国家关系的干扰。

第二,它证明,社会制度和意识形态完全对立的大国,建立和保持良好国家关系的根本途径是在联合国宪章原则下实现和平共处。相互尊重主权和领土完整,互不侵犯,互不干涉内政,平等互利。经过反复谈判,美方承认中华人民共和国政府是代表中国的唯一合法政府,台湾是中国领土一部分。美方也不对中国国内事务横加干涉。

第三,它证明,只要遵循上述两个根本原则,社会制度和意识形态完全对立的大国,完全可以进行全方位贸易、投资、科技、教育、文化、旅游等合作,并取得超过社会制度和意识形态相同国家间的合作规模和水平。从中美建交的1979年到2021年42年间,中美双边贸易额从24.8亿美元增加到7556.45亿美元,增加了306倍。这是世界近代史以来增长最快、规模最大的双边贸易。近年来特朗普政府和拜登政府变本加厉的反华政策给双边合作带了重大破坏,但未能阻止这一发展进程。

(二)良好的双边关系来自双方领导人政治远见和坚忍不拔的努力

尼克松成功实现访华,和中美破冰,与尼克松的远见和魄力和基辛格的智慧不无关系。当然,美方的主要动力是联合中国对抗苏联。中国领导人毛泽东、周恩来的政治远见、政治智慧和坚持不懈的努力,更是决定性因素。

新中国刚成立,毛泽东、周恩来确定的新中国的外交方针就明确,除了与苏联东欧国家、与亚非拉国家积极发展关系外,同时非常重视与西方国家建立和发展外交关系。1955年日内瓦会议后,周恩来总理确定启动中美大使级会谈。从1955年8月至1970年12月,共进行136次。1964年中法建交是一个重大标志和推动。1971年3月,毛泽东主席迅速抓住乒乓外交机会,力推中美接触破冰。基辛格秘密访华,与周恩来进行了13个小时的密集会谈,为周恩来的政治眼光、坚定性和超人智慧所折服。

二. 美国对华接触政策“失败“了吗?

(一) 中国融入的是多边体系和多边规则,不是美国体系和规则

美国学者米尔斯海默认为,美国对华政策的主要失败在于“允许中国在没有满足特定条件之前让其融入自由主义资本体系”。但这个说法缺乏事实支撑。无论从政治上还是经济上,中国融入的都是联合国为中心的多边体制,和世贸组织为中心的多边贸易体制。不是美国人自认的“自由主义资本体系”。中国恢复在联合国的合法席位的条件是联大成员国多数票赞成,不是其他什么“特定条件”。上世纪60年代起,联合国内支持中国恢复合法席位的票数就越来越多。1970年联大表决,支持中国恢复合法席位的票数已经超过半数,仅仅因为美国强加一个需要三分之二多数的规则,才延迟了一年。1971年10月联大以三分之二多数通过这一提案,还是在尼克松访华前。从那一天起,中国即恢复联合国会员和安理会常务理事资格。1986年中国申请复关,1995年世贸组织成立后改为入世,谈判所依照的是关贸总协定相关条款和后来的世贸组织规则,不是美国自己的“特定条件”。虽然是与当时世贸组织所有成员包括美国逐一谈判并达成协议,但美国的谈判条件不得超过关贸总协定和世贸组织法律和规则,不得另行私设“特定条件”。最后达成的中国在入世议定书中做出的承诺,也是严格按照世贸规则要求做出的多边承诺,不是对美国的双边承诺。衡量中国加入多边机制后是否“失败”,要看中国是否遵守了联合国宪章和世贸规则,而且由联合国和世贸组织总理事会下结论,美国仅仅是联合国194个会员国和世贸组织164个成员之一,它的判断自然不具效力。

(二) 多边体制不改变成员主权和社会制度

联合国宪章的基石是各成员国主权平等,不得干涉其内政。联合国成立77年来,没有一个成员国因为加入而改变自身社会政治制度。同样,世贸组织是贸易规则管理组织,不涉及成员社会政治制度。战后有不少国家社会政治制度因美国等西方国家输入颜色革命而改变,但没有一个是因为加入联合国或世贸组织。克林顿曾经力图说服国会同意与中国达成世贸协议,理由是可以促使中国逐步变成“民主国家”。这本身是只是说辞,没有任何根据。今天拿它来“悔不当初”,显然没有任何科学根据。

(三) 中国的强大并不是“美国一手造就的”

过去50年来,特别是改革开放43年来,中国无论经济还是综合国力持续迅速增长,2021年名义GDP比改革开放前的1978年增长了312.76倍,折合17.7万亿美元,达到美国GDP的77%,超过欧盟27国总和,成为世界第二经济大国。中国综合国力和国际影响力也空前提升。但这主要不是美国的作用,而是中央改革开放的方针下中国自己努力的结果。中国改革开放和经济增长明显加速始于上世纪80年代初的农业和农村改革,极大地解放了农业生产力,美国没有起什么作用。

中国经济和进出口贸易的腾飞也并不是始于入世以后。经济增长最快的时期是上世纪90年代。过去40多年来中国经济增长的主要拉动力一直在国内。1980年中国GDP增长的98.2%来自国内消费和投资,净出口只贡献1.8%。2005年净出口贡献上升到10.1%,2021年再上升到20.9%。但国内消费和投资仍占八成左右。

来自美国的商品、投资、技术和服务,美国提供的市场,为中国经济的腾飞发挥了一定作用,我们应当肯定这一点,但它并不是主要作用。过去十年来,来自美国的直接投资占中国利用外资总额大约2%,远低于日本、韩国和欧盟。美国在中国技术引进中的比重大约在三分之一左右,欧洲和日本也是重要来源。

(四) 美国也从中美经贸合作中获益

40多年来中美经贸合作令人瞩目的发展,堪称历史奇迹。从1979年中美建交并恢复贸易到2021年,双边贸易额从24.51亿美元增加到7556.45亿美元,42年累计增长307.3倍。规模之大,增长持续时间之长,为近代史人类历史上所仅见。即便2018年以来美国政府对中国发起贸易战和大面积科技打压,也没有改变这一趋势。这种规模惊人的增长之所以能够持续,在于中美双方都得到利益,而且利益相对均衡。

从2001年到2021年,即中国加入WTO后20年来,美国对全球商品出口从7313.31亿美元增长到17539.41亿美元,累计增长139.8%;同期美国对中国出口从193.96亿美元增至1510.65亿美元,增长678.9%。不仅相当于其对全球出口增速四倍多,也远远高于同期美国从中国进口的增速(393.7%)。美国相关研究报告显示,对中国的出口为美国提供了110玩个就业机会。美国在华投资的7万多家企业,在华年销售额超过6000亿美元。

美国硅谷科技巨头和通用电气、通用汽车、特斯拉在中国的投资,对中国新一代信息技术、新能源汽车、干线飞机等产业的发展确实起到了不可忽略的作用。但同时,中国市场也给它们的生存和发展起到了不可替代的作用。英特尔、高通、美光、德州仪器等美国十大半导体公司,23%至80%销售额在中国市场实现。离开了中国市场,它们的销售额不足以达到足够规模来支撑巨大而持续的研发投资。而过去十年来美国生产率增长领先于欧洲和日本的一个基本原因是新一代信息通信技术持续而大量的投资。因此中国市场帮助了美国科技巨头的发展并维持领先地位。2020年,苹果APP Store营业额达到6430亿美元,其中在中国市场实现约3000亿美元,占46.7%;远超美国市场营业额(1750亿美元)。特斯拉2021年全球新能源汽车销售达到92万辆,其中一半来自上海超级工厂。2009年通用汽车宣布破产保护,唯有通用汽车中国盈利,帮助支撑它免于破产。

因此,中美合作是双向而互利的,美国帮助了中国经济发展,中国也帮助了美国经济发展。

一种奇怪的说法把美国比喻成农夫,中国比喻成蛇。称美国把中国培养成强国,中国反过来挑战美国。这完全违反事实。美国从来不是农夫,中国更不是蛇。

(五) 中国并没有挑战全球秩序,也不对美国构成威胁

全球秩序并不能由美国按照自己霸权需要来定义,而只能由联合国宪章定义。过去50年来,中国一直遵守并维护联合国宪章。在联合国系统、国际货币基金组织、世界银行、世贸组织、二十国集团、亚太经合组织机制内发挥建设性作用。美国认为中国的壮大,就是对美国地位和安全的挑战。这个逻辑不存在,事实也不存在。

和所有国家一样,中国需要不断发展经济,以保障其14亿人民过上好的生活。中国人口是美国的四倍。如果中国人均GDP达到美国三分之一,总量就超过美国。但那并不构成任何威胁。因为美国2021年人均GDP已经达到6.9万美元。其三分之一是2.3万美元,仍然没有达到发达国家水平。世界上每个国家都有通过自己努力,建设成发达国家的权利。为什么中国就不可以,就是对美国的威胁呢?不存在这个逻辑。

三. 借鉴历史,在和平共处基础上推动中美关系重回合作轨道

从特朗普政府到拜登政府,美国一直把中国视为头号对手,并进行全方位打压,造成今天中美关系的困难局面。其根源在于,美国不能容忍意识形态、价值观和社会制度与它完全不同的中国经济规模和科技水平发展得超过它;不能容忍中国的国际影响对它的霸权构成威胁。为此,美国一个基本方略就是无视中国主权和领土完整,粗暴干涉中国内政。在涉台、涉港、涉疆、涉藏等一系列问题上不断踩中国红线。所有这些,都恰恰违背了50年前尼克松访华时中美双方发表的上海公报基本精神。恰好走进了死胡同。

我们不妨重温上海公报这段话:

“中美两国的社会制度和对外政策有着本质的区别。但是,双方同意,各国不论社会制度如何,都应根据尊重各国主权和领土完整、不侵犯别国、不干涉别国内政、平等互利、和平共处的原则来处理国与国之间的关系。国际争端应在此基础上予以解决,而不诉诸武力和武力威胁。美国和中华人民共和国准备在他们的相互关系中实行这些原则。”

今天中美关系恶化到这个程度,不正好是美方离开了这些原则吗?相反,如果我们回到上海公报精神,中美两国关系不仅不难处理好,而且可以给世界和平作出重大贡献,为中美两国人民带来巨大利益,就像过去50年来的事实反复证明的那样。

历史是我们最好的老师。希望中美两国政府和两国人民共同努力,对过去50年中美关系历史做出客观、公正的总结,并继续维护公报确定的处理两国关系基本准则,在和平共处基础上重回合作轨道,造福于世界,造福于两国人民。

(作者何伟文是前驻旧金山、纽约总领馆经济商务参赞,全球化智库高级研究员)
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