Will Biden Succeed in Driving a Wedge between Xi and Putin?

The nuances of the diplomatic newspeak on both sides have caused commentators to be moderately optimistic. Did President Biden influence Beijing’s position even to a minimal extent?

Joe Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping for nearly two hours on Friday, which is exceptionally long for a conversation between the American president and the leader of this hostile country. Biden attempted to dissuade Xi from providing Vladimir Putin with the help he has requested in his war with Ukraine. In general, Biden tried to persuade Xi to distance himself from the Russian dictator. Judging from the statements of the Chinese and U.S. governments, it’s hard to see whether Biden had even a minimum amount of influence on Beijing’s position. Shortly before the invasion, Putin and Xi stated in writing that the friendship between their countries “has no limits” and that they are both opposed to further NATO expansion.

Will China Help Russia?

Nothing really resulted from the post-interview statements by China, written in distinctive fable-like language. “The world is neither peaceful nor tranquil.… The Ukraine crisis is something we don’t want to see.… Conflict and confrontation are not in the interests of anyone. Peace and security are the most cherished treasures of the international community,” Xi allegedly told Biden. Is that clear enough?

The U.S. government delayed the official translation of the president’s conversation, which, probably at Beijing’s suggestion, did not explain much. According to the White House, Biden once again warned Xi that any support for Russia’s military operations would cost China dearly. The real effects of the talks, should any become apparent, will therefore only be known once it is clear what China has done — that is, whether it has helped Putin in any way to ease the effects of the sanctions and whether it has provided him with weapons and military equipment.

Xi Doesn’t Want a New Cold War

The nuances of the diplomatic newspeak on both sides have caused commentators to be moderately optimistic. One of the foremost Chinese insiders, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, said that “the tone of Xi’s statements (but only those we know from official announcements!) is strikingly conciliatory to the U.S.”* American observers take it as a good sign that the Chinese leader said the Ukrainian crisis “is not what we want to see.”

Xi’s dissatisfaction is a fact, but one should not draw overly optimistic conclusions. China did not condemn the invasion of Ukraine and abstained from voting on the U.N. resolution concerning Ukraine. According to U.S. intelligence, Xi was surprised that the war was not proceeding as his friend Vladimir had assured him it would — that is, it had not brought Russia a fast and relatively bloodless victory. Allegedly, he is shocked by the scale of the sanctions against Russia and is wondering how to proceed. The Chinese president and the Kremlin satrap are linked by the common interests of totalitarian regimes, hostility to democracy and a desire to weaken America. At the same time, Xi does not want a new Iron Curtain and another Cold War because it would also be huge trouble for China.

China Has Overlapping Interests with the West

When Putin turned to the Chinese president for economic and military aid, Secretary of State Antony Blinken threatened that if China sent arms and equipment to Russia, it would face “severe consequences.” It is unlikely that Beijing will supply tanks or planes; light equipment, ammunition, spare parts, etc. are considered more probable. Chinese help in easing the sanctions is possible, although significantly limited. The economy of the Middle Kingdom is incomparably more closely related to the economies of the U.S. and the EU than to the economy of Russia. The value of China’s trade with the EU last year came to $800 billion, and with the U.S., $750 billion. Trade with Russia amounted to only $150 billion, which is 10 times less than the total exchange of goods with the West. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has threatened China with secondary sanctions — sanctions imposed on third-party countries that trade with China.

China does not want to become an international pariah like Putin and cares about preserving its image, which, as it claims, adheres to the norms of an international order based on mutually agreed rules. That is why China continues to declare that it is guided by the principle of respect for state sovereignty and the inviolability of borders. What’s more, the Chinese government representative said in February that Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected. If China’s actions were to back up its words, Beijing would have to condemn the invasion, but it has not.

Ukraine’s Resistance Gives Food for Thought

In the context of U.S.-China relations, the backdrop for the war in Ukraine is the Taiwan issue. The Chinese dragon has implied that if it invades the island, it would not violate the principle of sovereignty because it does not consider Taiwan an independent state. Rather, China sees Taiwan as a province that has illegally broken away from the motherland. The U.S. and its allies have a distinct opinion on the matter. Despite all the historical and cultural differences between Taiwan and Ukraine, the analogy is apparent. Both of these societies, which are being denied the right to exist as sovereign states, simply have a democratic system, are satisfied with it and do not want to be enslaved under the boot of a neo-Stalinist regime.

It is not unlikely that Ukraine’s heroic resistance and the losses it has inflicted on the invading army has given tyranny in Beijing some food for thought. However, it doesn’t mean, as Rudd alleges, that Xi will soon meet Biden halfway and call on Putin to come to his senses. Prolonging the war serves China’s interests. The sanctions and the action unleashed to contain Putin are costly for the U.S. and the West, and weakening Russia will make it even more dependent on China. “Putin will have to suffer even more defeat in Ukraine for Xi to make a firm move,” Rudd told CNN.*

*Editor’s Note: Although accurately translated, these remarks could not be independently verified.