The Biden-Putin War

I assume that regular readers of this column are also following the war in Ukraine, and so instead of going into the details of every news story surrounding the conflict here, here is an overall review and interpretation of events. Recently, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell announced that a no-fly zone over Ukraine “would mean escalating the conflict into World War III, and we clearly don’t want that … we are doing everything possible from a military point of view … and avoiding confrontation that could escalate into a nuclear confrontation.” In another important news development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly demanded that NATO impose a no-fly zone, saying that without it, NATO would be the next target. Zelenskyy once again asked that NATO declare the no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that Putin will not stop there. The Ukrainian president also asked for a direct meeting with Vladimir Putin.

The New York Times reported that recently, “Russia asked China to give it military equipment and support for the war in Ukraine,” and that “Russia has also asked China for additional economic assistance to help counteract the battering its economy has taken from broad sanctions imposed by the United States and European and Asian nations.” At the same time, the International Monetary Fund has announced that due to the new, wide-ranging sanctions, the Russian economy will soon face a deep recession.

Yet the war goes on, and noted American political scientist and commentator John Mearsheimer wrote in The Economist that “the West and the U.S. are principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis.” Mearsheimer asserts that the attempt to admit Ukraine and Georgia into NATO was a step too far, and so we now find ourselves in an extremely dangerous situation. If the West is able to defeat Russia on the battlefield and destroy the Russian economy through sanctions, Mearsheimer says, it will have pushed a great power to the edge, and it is possible that Putin could resort to using nuclear weapons in response. At the moment, ranking officials from the U.S. State Department are meeting with the Chinese in Italy to discuss China’s position on the Ukraine crisis and possible paths toward a compromise on the issue. So far, China has kept its distance and pursued a policy of indifference toward the crisis, abstaining from a U.N resolution condemning the invasion.

As I have previously written here, the balance between the three superpowers of China, the U.S. and Russia has been disrupted by the war between Putin and Joe Biden in Ukraine. In Europe, the German and French governments have suffered the most serious losses by way of their energy sector, oil and gas imports from Russia, and trade. However, China has remained on the margins, as they see this conflict as nothing more than a tug of war between Biden (U.S.) and Putin (Russia), with both sides in trouble. The longer this imprudent war continues, the more dangerous it gets, but it is leading to a dead end for the heads of both countries. This conflict will force the EU to rapidly expand its economic and trade ties with China. Donald Trump's anti-China policies had no effect and have now been cast aside. During his four years in office, Trump repeatedly called China the enemy, but considered Russia to be a rival and competitor. In this conflict that one could call the Biden-Putin War, Biden has paved the way for China to expand its financial, trading and economic power into Europe.

So far, the war in Ukraine has resulted in nothing more than the destruction of the country and displacement of more than 2 million Ukrainian citizens. Putin has been able to suppress civil dissent in his country, but as the war drags on, the economic crisis resulting from comprehensive Western sanctions will only further isolate Russia and cause additional domestic issues there. Moreover, it is not hard to imagine social tension and economic damage creating further issues in Europe’s major nations, particularly Germany and France.

The war in Ukraine is a battle between Biden and Putin. Many Western policy analysts believe the war will end the political careers of both leaders. In the meantime, the balance of power among China, Russia and the U.S. has been thrown into chaos, and it is the ordinary citizens of Ukraine, Russia, and, in the not-so-distant future, Europe who will feel the disastrous consequences. Even if the conflict results in a cease-fire or compromise, it will have deeply scarred the idea of deescalation; the resulting militarization will cause a further social and environmental crisis for people in countries around the world. People have become more opposed to war, while Biden and Putin continue beating its drums. The damage from Putin’s war in Ukraine will surely bring turbulence and tension to governments and particularly to ordinary people in the not-so-distant future.