US Will Reap Consequences of Russia-Ukraine Crisis Profiteering

The Kremlin issued its latest statement regarding the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on April 18. Ukraine’s position in the negotiations is inconsistent, with Kyiv often appearing to change its mind. This is a practical reason why launching a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is beset with difficulties, and Russia has already pointed out that there are American factors behind the changes to Ukraine’s position.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the United States, along with its Western allies, increased economic and military aid to Ukraine and further escalated sanctions against Russia. Not only did it fail to use its influence as a great power to push for reconciliation and promote talks, but instead, whether intentionally or not, it provided an impetus for the indefinite extension of the war. On closer inspection, this is because it hopes to repeat a history of wartime profiteering, in which it reaps opportunistic, third-party profit from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, maximizing its own strategic and economic interests to maintain American hegemony.

First, the Russia-Ukraine conflict can help the United States bring about its geostrategic goal of continuing to manipulate NATO, hold back Europe and deplete Russia, thus cementing its position as a global superpower.

Since the end of World War II, Europe has existed and developed under the aegis of the United States, and NATO has become a powerful tool for the United States in controlling its European allies. But the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union brought peace and hope to the Europeans who want to rid themselves of American control, speak with their own voice and move toward strategic autonomy. This inevitably posed a serious challenge to the United States’ hegemonic status and to its geostrategic interests in Europe.

The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in 2014, and particularly the current “special military operation” carried out by Russia against Ukraine, has brought about a fundamental change in the relationship between Russia and the United States and the West, and has also afforded the United States some rare opportunities. Aided by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States has once again brought Europe’s fear of war to the fore. Russia has had to endure the most extreme sanctions from the United States and the West, while, for its part, Ukraine has become the United States’ pawn and proxy in its dealings with Russia. The United States, however, can simply fiddle while Rome burns, and reap the benefits at its leisure.

Seen realistically, the screenplay of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is generally unfolding under the direction of the United States. NATO has found itself again in the conflict, displaying renewed vitality; Finland and Sweden, long neutral, have expressed their interest in joining the alliance — something that is bound to set off a new wave of NATO expansion. After the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany immediately announced it would increase defense spending and supply the conflict zone with weapons, bringing to a rapid conclusion the strategic restraint and pacifism that had been in place since the end of World War II. The sense of crisis and strategic anxiety played up so vigorously by the United States will inevitably expand to the rest of the world. In Asia, several Japanese politicians have seized the opportunity to call for nuclear sharing between the United States and Japan and increasing defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product in line with NATO standards, and undoubtedly injecting a new dynamic into regional and global politics.

Second, the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be used to maximize U.S. military-industrial interests and further extend its military hegemony.

For many years, the U.S. military-industrial complex has been inseparable from strife and turmoil around the world, earning rolling dividends through war and conflict. The U.S. defense budget proposed for fiscal year 2023 is as much as $813.3 billion, the largest defense budget in U.S. history. From the onset of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has pledged to provide Ukraine with military aid amounting to more than $2.5 billion, continuously shipping over large quantities of offensive weapons and ammunitions. On the other hand, European countries such as Poland, Bulgaria and Germany have also individually submitted significant arms orders to the United States, greatly lining the pockets of America's arms manufacturers.

The global proliferation of American weapons and the ratcheting up of the NATO military machine are bound to bring about a worldwide arms race, seriously affecting global peace. Certainly, American military assistance to Ukraine has strengthened Ukraine's resistance to a degree, created obstacles to Russia’s military operations, and affected diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Following previous rounds of talks, Ukraine essentially agreed to negotiate with Russia on the condition of not joining NATO and becoming a permanently neutral country. Peace seemed to be on the horizon, but it was short-lived, as the Ukrainians once again changed their tune, overturning the previous agreement and bringing Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to a standstill. Leaving aside the fact that Ukraine has yet to fully recover from its disillusionment in respect to the West, this situation is also the result of the United States consciously goading Ukraine into keeping up the fight, as the real interests of the U.S. military-industrial complex and the maintenance of U.S. military hegemony around the world require Ukraine to remain in a state of war.

Third, extreme sanctions against Russia will shore up dollar dominance and consolidate U.S. financial hegemony.

Since becoming a financial empire, the United States has dedicated itself to covert “financial colonization” through the use of the dollar as the world’s trade settlement and reserve currency, maintaining global U.S. financial domination by controlling other countries’ economies. Despite the challenge of "de-dollarization" as the default currency of international payments, the dollar’s global influence is unlikely to be replaced any time soon, and the United States will continue to regularly avail itself of its dollar hegemony to beat down other countries.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the United States imposed extreme economic and financial sanctions on Russia, seriously undermining Russia’s investment environment, and forcing large businesses investing there to withdraw from the Russian market. Global funds flowed back to the United States from places like Europe and the emerging markets, immediately pushing the U.S. Dollar Index higher and strengthening the dollar beyond all expectations. As the U.S. Dollar Index has continued to surge, the currency exchange rates of many countries, including China’s renminbi, have come under increasing pressure to adjust in the short term — a further indication that the United States is punching down using dollar hegemony.

International public opinion is that there will be no winner in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and only the United States will benefiting. Seen realistically, the United States has reaped a bumper crop in the fields of geopolitics, military industry, energy and finance, and this is the main reason why it is hoping for a prolongation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. This writer believes that, in the short term, there are certain obvious benefits to the United States repeating its history of wartime profiteering. In the long run, however, it is simply digging its own grave, and history will bear this out.

The author is vice president of the China National Association for International Studies and dean of East China Normal University's School of Advanced International and Area Studies, Shanghai.