Russia-Ukraine War: Who Is the Victor?
Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 3 May 2022
by Fan Xiangtao (link to original)
It has been more than two months since Russia launched its “special military operation” against Ukraine, and there is still no sign of a cease-fire. Many political commentators believe that the United States is the biggest winner in this war — a view that may hold true in the short term, but not necessarily over the longer term.
If the United States is the current winner of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is because, through its carrot-and-stick approach and under the banner of “Western values,” it has formed a consummate united front, using the proxy war in Ukraine to incite a fear of Russia among its European brothers, and then using its own formidable power to extend to them its umbrella of protection. The United States has utilized the proxy war in dog-eat-dog fashion to avert a wave of anti-war protests at home; it has used its information advantage to provide Ukraine military intelligence, resulting in the sinking of Russia’s prized flagship, the Moskva, under Ukrainian missile fire and the destruction of one of Russia’s newest fighter jets; and it has taken advantage of the West’s absolute dominance of public opinion to launch a press war against Russia. The press war against Russia has included news about dozens of Ukrainian defenders dying heroically on Snake Island, resulting in Russia posting photos of their surrender; the story that more than 500 people had been killed in bombings of Russian ships, leading to Russia publishing photos of them being decorated and discharged; and a news special on the Bucha massacre of civilians by the Russian army, with Western media sharing the anecdote about the pretty young girl who pretended to be a corpse in the mistaken belief she was providing a public service, but who has now returned from the dead.
In short, whether you believe these stories or not, the United States has achieved a measure of success in boosting the morale of the Ukrainian army and seizing the moral high ground. Encouraged by their American “Big Brother,” Europe’s “little brothers” have purchased large quantities of arms for Ukraine, making a fortune for the U.S. military machine, while the turmoil of the war has sent dollars flowing back to the United States from Europe, thereby boosting the U.S. economy.
Russia’s special military operations have led to its “encirclement and annihilation” by more than 40 countries in the West, which have imposed five sanctions, each one more severe than the last, in an attempt to beat Russia to death. What they did not reckon with, however, was Russia's calmly doing whatever was necessary in its defense, using its opponents’ strength against them and countering their every move. As it turns out, Russia had already taken preventive measures against such sanctions, using its own huge advantages in food, energy and its military industry to transform itself into a “doomsday stronghold.” It is not the least bit afraid of sanctions; if anything, its countersanctions have sparked several days of whining from the United States’ European “little brothers.” Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s natural gas, 30% of its oil and one-third of its food, and is, in some sense, Europe’s “bread and butter.” Does this not make Europe’s response to the United States’ call for sanctions against Russia somewhat outrageous?
After the Russian occupation of Mariupol, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference that, apart from the de-Nazification of Ukraine, the maintenance of its neutrality, independence for Luhansk and Donetsk and securing Crimea’s return to Russia, another major goal of its special military operation was to put a stop to any U.S.-dominated world of absolute polarity.
Russia’s determination to start an uprising to make way for a new world order was thus clearly framed as its desire to revolutionize the United States. From Lavrov’s resolute attitude at the press conference, it can be surmised that the “bear” is playing for keeps with the West, and the Russian people have even adopted the old saying, “The best defense is a good offense.” Therefore, in this author’s view, Russia will get the last laugh and be the biggest winner in this special military operation.
First, Putin easily took control of eastern and southern Ukraine, deploying merely 200,000 second-tier troops and dipping into its outdated stockpile of armaments. Ukraine has the second-largest natural gas reserves in Europe, all of which are located in eastern Ukraine, and Europe’s third-largest coal production, 90% of which is also in eastern Ukraine. The total value of natural gas and the coal mines plus the value of heavy industry in eastern Ukraine is far greater than the cost of the war; no matter how you slice it, Russia will turn a steady profit.
Second, Europe relies heavily on energy and food supplies from Russia, so there is no doubt that to impose sanctions on Russia is to shoot yourself in the foot. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has begged Putin not to block Black Sea bulk carrier ships filled with wheat (the reason being that to delay them would cause a humanitarian hunger crisis in Europe); Germany, Austria and Italy are secretly using rubles to purchase natural gas; and now even the United Kingdom, the United States’ bosom buddy, cannot resist any longer and has publicly announced that it will also be using rubles to buy natural gas from May onward.* The rise in energy prices touched off by the special military operation is precisely what Russia has been dreaming of, as the extra revenue from daily sales of energy far outstrips battlefield expenses. Europe is no match for Russia, and the more protracted this special operation becomes, the worse off it will be, as discussed above.
Third, from the victories of pro-Russian presidential candidates in countries like Hungary and Serbia, to French President Emmanuel Macron’s near miss in the recent election, to the thousands of people in Frankfurt, Germany, waving the Russian flag in the square in front of the opera house and singing the Russian national anthem, all of this provides clues as to a general trend in Europe. When the benefits of clinging to the American “Big Brother” recede beyond a critical point, the European “little brothers” could go turncoat. The United States must exercise vigilance in lifting Russian sanctions and ordering Ukrainian puppets to accept Russia’s cease-fire agreements sooner rather than later if it wishes to avoid a repeat of the same mistake and suffer the humiliation of an Afghan-style retreat.
Fourth, Russia pegged the price of 5,000 rubles to a gram of gold, thus decisively upsetting dollar hegemony. The United States losing its dollar dominance is like a knight losing his squire: His life may not have been upended (by Russia), but the days when he could unify disparate camps through his own martial skill are gone, and the era of an evolving world order, from “absolute polarity” to “multipolarity,” is just around the corner.
More than 2,000 years ago, Sun Tzu said, “War is a vital matter of state, the scene of life or death, the route to survival or perdition, and cannot be neglected.” This author admires the Chinese leaders’ prudence in their use of military force, as they refrain from taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war to launch a lightning strike against Taiwan; they know that we are on the threshold of a multipolar world, and that the United States, although it wants to run the show, will find that it is increasingly less up to the task. Where conditions are right, success naturally follows. Rather than reunifying with China by force a few years ahead of time and rubbing our [Mainland] compatriots the wrong way, wouldn't it be better to wait a few years more and exert the influence of our own polarity, so that, when the time comes, Taiwan can be reunified without a fight?
The author is a director at the U.S.-China Forum.
*Translator's Note: The U.K. authorized purchases using rubles until May, not from May onward.
If the United States is the current winner of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is because, through its carrot-and-stick approach and under the banner of “Western values,” it has formed a consummate united front, using the proxy war in Ukraine to incite a fear of Russia among its European brothers, and then using its own formidable power to extend to them its umbrella of protection. The United States has utilized the proxy war in dog-eat-dog fashion to avert a wave of anti-war protests at home; it has used its information advantage to provide Ukraine military intelligence, resulting in the sinking of Russia’s prized flagship, the Moskva, under Ukrainian missile fire and the destruction of one of Russia’s newest fighter jets; and it has taken advantage of the West’s absolute dominance of public opinion to launch a press war against Russia. The press war against Russia has included news about dozens of Ukrainian defenders dying heroically on Snake Island, resulting in Russia posting photos of their surrender; the story that more than 500 people had been killed in bombings of Russian ships, leading to Russia publishing photos of them being decorated and discharged; and a news special on the Bucha massacre of civilians by the Russian army, with Western media sharing the anecdote about the pretty young girl who pretended to be a corpse in the mistaken belief she was providing a public service, but who has now returned from the dead.
In short, whether you believe these stories or not, the United States has achieved a measure of success in boosting the morale of the Ukrainian army and seizing the moral high ground. Encouraged by their American “Big Brother,” Europe’s “little brothers” have purchased large quantities of arms for Ukraine, making a fortune for the U.S. military machine, while the turmoil of the war has sent dollars flowing back to the United States from Europe, thereby boosting the U.S. economy.
Russia’s special military operations have led to its “encirclement and annihilation” by more than 40 countries in the West, which have imposed five sanctions, each one more severe than the last, in an attempt to beat Russia to death. What they did not reckon with, however, was Russia's calmly doing whatever was necessary in its defense, using its opponents’ strength against them and countering their every move. As it turns out, Russia had already taken preventive measures against such sanctions, using its own huge advantages in food, energy and its military industry to transform itself into a “doomsday stronghold.” It is not the least bit afraid of sanctions; if anything, its countersanctions have sparked several days of whining from the United States’ European “little brothers.” Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s natural gas, 30% of its oil and one-third of its food, and is, in some sense, Europe’s “bread and butter.” Does this not make Europe’s response to the United States’ call for sanctions against Russia somewhat outrageous?
After the Russian occupation of Mariupol, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference that, apart from the de-Nazification of Ukraine, the maintenance of its neutrality, independence for Luhansk and Donetsk and securing Crimea’s return to Russia, another major goal of its special military operation was to put a stop to any U.S.-dominated world of absolute polarity.
Russia’s determination to start an uprising to make way for a new world order was thus clearly framed as its desire to revolutionize the United States. From Lavrov’s resolute attitude at the press conference, it can be surmised that the “bear” is playing for keeps with the West, and the Russian people have even adopted the old saying, “The best defense is a good offense.” Therefore, in this author’s view, Russia will get the last laugh and be the biggest winner in this special military operation.
First, Putin easily took control of eastern and southern Ukraine, deploying merely 200,000 second-tier troops and dipping into its outdated stockpile of armaments. Ukraine has the second-largest natural gas reserves in Europe, all of which are located in eastern Ukraine, and Europe’s third-largest coal production, 90% of which is also in eastern Ukraine. The total value of natural gas and the coal mines plus the value of heavy industry in eastern Ukraine is far greater than the cost of the war; no matter how you slice it, Russia will turn a steady profit.
Second, Europe relies heavily on energy and food supplies from Russia, so there is no doubt that to impose sanctions on Russia is to shoot yourself in the foot. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has begged Putin not to block Black Sea bulk carrier ships filled with wheat (the reason being that to delay them would cause a humanitarian hunger crisis in Europe); Germany, Austria and Italy are secretly using rubles to purchase natural gas; and now even the United Kingdom, the United States’ bosom buddy, cannot resist any longer and has publicly announced that it will also be using rubles to buy natural gas from May onward.* The rise in energy prices touched off by the special military operation is precisely what Russia has been dreaming of, as the extra revenue from daily sales of energy far outstrips battlefield expenses. Europe is no match for Russia, and the more protracted this special operation becomes, the worse off it will be, as discussed above.
Third, from the victories of pro-Russian presidential candidates in countries like Hungary and Serbia, to French President Emmanuel Macron’s near miss in the recent election, to the thousands of people in Frankfurt, Germany, waving the Russian flag in the square in front of the opera house and singing the Russian national anthem, all of this provides clues as to a general trend in Europe. When the benefits of clinging to the American “Big Brother” recede beyond a critical point, the European “little brothers” could go turncoat. The United States must exercise vigilance in lifting Russian sanctions and ordering Ukrainian puppets to accept Russia’s cease-fire agreements sooner rather than later if it wishes to avoid a repeat of the same mistake and suffer the humiliation of an Afghan-style retreat.
Fourth, Russia pegged the price of 5,000 rubles to a gram of gold, thus decisively upsetting dollar hegemony. The United States losing its dollar dominance is like a knight losing his squire: His life may not have been upended (by Russia), but the days when he could unify disparate camps through his own martial skill are gone, and the era of an evolving world order, from “absolute polarity” to “multipolarity,” is just around the corner.
More than 2,000 years ago, Sun Tzu said, “War is a vital matter of state, the scene of life or death, the route to survival or perdition, and cannot be neglected.” This author admires the Chinese leaders’ prudence in their use of military force, as they refrain from taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war to launch a lightning strike against Taiwan; they know that we are on the threshold of a multipolar world, and that the United States, although it wants to run the show, will find that it is increasingly less up to the task. Where conditions are right, success naturally follows. Rather than reunifying with China by force a few years ahead of time and rubbing our [Mainland] compatriots the wrong way, wouldn't it be better to wait a few years more and exert the influence of our own polarity, so that, when the time comes, Taiwan can be reunified without a fight?
The author is a director at the U.S.-China Forum.
*Translator's Note: The U.K. authorized purchases using rubles until May, not from May onward.
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