Dead-End China

Biden has justifiably declared China to be a greater challenge than Russia. Some in German industry still do not understand what consequences that can have.

For those who are familiar with the American debate, it will be no surprise that Joe Biden considers China to be a greater long-term threat than Russia. The bipartisan consensus in Washington has long been that China is the only country that wants to change the world order and increasingly has the resources to do so, as the president writes in the National Security Strategy.

It is also not untrue. Russia only plays in the premier league of world politics when it comes to nuclear weapons. Beyond deterrence, however, their practical use is limited in most cases. And with the war, Vladmir Putin is weakening his country for the long term to the extent that many of his geopolitical ambitions will probably remain unfulfilled.

Biden Continues Trump’s Policy

With respect to China, Biden is continuing the policy of his predecessors, especially those of Donald Trump. Thus, one needs to accept in Berlin, too, that thwarting and containing China will be a constant of U.S. foreign policy, regardless of who is sitting in the White House.

Thus, if Germany forges its own path in the name of globalization and international understanding, it can quickly lead to (expensive) dead ends. See, for example, Nord Stream 2. At the level of German corporate management, it seems that some still do not understand, but for politics, the lesson of the Russia debacle must be clear: national interest is not the same as industry’s profit opportunity.