The China-US Endgame: War or Trade?

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 28 May 2023
by Shi Qiping (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Wang Yi, director of the Central Committee Foreign Affairs Office of the Chinese Communist Party, and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Vienna, Austria, on May 10 and 11. Their meeting took place over two days, lasted for eight hours, and was so spontaneous and protracted that all parties were naturally curious about what the two discussed. Common sense dictates that first, of course, it was something important; second, it was pressing; and third, it was a matter requiring the attention of both parties.

We must first look at the broader context. The context is that the U.S. is in a hurry, while China, relatively speaking, is not. A number of senior U.S. officials and generals have repeatedly expressed their willingness to visit China and made repeated calls to their Chinese counterparts, which have gone unanswered. This shows that it is the U.S. that is impatient, whereas China’s acceptance of the invitation to high-level bilateral talks in Vienna makes it clear that China believes there may be something to discuss, that it may be worth discussing and that it may be worth discussing at length.

From China’s perspective, there are only two worthwhile things to discuss: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Taiwan Strait. Of course, from the U.S. perspective, there is another topic to discuss, but China may not be happy to take it up, namely the U.S. debt issue. Talking about the latter may not be completely off the table for China, but it depends on how it is discussed.

The Russia-Ukraine war has continued for more than a year. Russia, Ukraine and Europe have all paid a heavy price, and they are in no mood to keep fighting. Even if the U.S. is keen to continue, it has no choice but to respond positively now that China has played its hand (advancing “China’s position on a political solution to the Ukraine crisis” card) and is occupying the moral high ground. China has sent its special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, on mediation trips to Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia, while the Vienna talks between Wang and Sullivan should lead toward more in-depth discussion of both the Chinese and American positions and how each country can help.

The Western media currently regard the Taiwan Strait as the most dangerous region on the face of the earth, and, according to this observer, we can’t rule out that the level of danger will boil over in the next 18 months. In his 2017 book, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”, Graham T. Allison, the American scholar who first proposed the term “Thucydides Trap,” compiled statistics on 16 relationships between a ruling power and an emerging power over nearly 500 years. Of these, 12 of them — that is, a 75% probability — ended up going to war. As the latest such historical pair, will China and the U.S. become part of the 75% as well? Or will they be spared a war?

Let’s start with the strategic calculations that the U.S. is making. In order to maintain its hegemony, the U.S. must get rid of China, the new second-in-command; there is no question about this. Crucially, the tussle between China and the U.S. is playing out right up to the present moment, and the longer the U.S. wrestles with this, the more worn out it gets. With only two cards left to play and the “technology card” not necessarily being a winning one — if it doesn’t have the opposite effect entirely — the “Taiwan card” is all that the U.S. has left.

Logically, there are two options for the U.S. in playing the "Taiwan card.” One, as suggested by the RAND Corporation think tank in the U.S., would be to engineer a conventional war in the Taiwan Strait. This would induce China to intervene, cause huge damage on the industrial, financial and technological fronts, and could even lead to a social and political crisis, thus completely disrupting the momentum of China’s rise. The U.S. can’t wait to strengthen Taiwan militarily and turn it into an arsenal, and similarly, it is also doing all it can to turn Japan, South Korea and the Philippines into a united front as part of this strategy. But the problem now is that the U.S. seems to have missed its window of opportunity; that is to say, a victory for the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific is no longer assured, and the longer things drag on, the less favorable they look for the U.S.

At this point in time, the U.S.’ economic and debt problems look incendiary in the short term and irremediable in the long term, so this observer fears that the only country in the world that can put out the flames and help ease the deep economic crisis is China. In addition, the constantly rising stakes of the long-standing Taiwan issue could not be anything other than a bargaining chip for Beijing. And from the look of things, it is not outside the realm of possibility that this could become an alternative for the U.S., in playing the Taiwan card.

Coincidentally, it was Sullivan who once suggested to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his superior at the time, that the U.S. and China might “trade” Taiwan, and he is now national security adviser to President Joe Biden. The Vienna talks between Sullivan and Wang therefore make it hard to avoid making a connection.

The author is a senior commentator for Phoenix Satellite TV.


中美博弈終局——交戰?交易?

10:41, 2023/05/28

言論 石齊平

中共中央外事辦主任王毅與美國國安顧問蘇利文,5月10日至11日在奧地利維也納會晤,會談橫跨兩日,談了8個小時。事出突然,談了又久,各方自然好奇談了什麼?常情推理,當然一是大事,二是急事,三是讓雙方共同關注的事。

必須先看到大背景。大背景是美方急,中方相對不急,美方一眾高層官員及將領,一再表態訪華意願及一再致電中方對口,均未獲中方回應,可見是美方急,但中方「應約」至維也納舉行雙方高層會談,可見中方認為也有可談知之事,值得一談,而且長談。

從中方角度看,可談及值得一彈談的不外兩事:俄烏戰局與台海問題;當然從美方角度講,還有一個想談當中方未必樂意接手的,就是美債問題。後者對中方而言也未必是絕對不能談,端看要怎麼談。

俄烏戰爭超過一年,俄、烏、歐代價均大,都已無心戀棧,美方縱使還想繼續,但在中方已出牌(提出「政治解決烏克蘭危機的中國立場」),並占據了道德高地後,也不得不做出正面回應。中國已派出歐亞事務特別代表李輝出訪烏、波、法、德、俄五國展開斡旋,王、蘇維也納會談應就中美雙方的立場及如何協助進行了深入討論。

台海,目前已被西方媒體視為是地表上最危險的地區,以我觀察,未來18個月危險度還不排除爆表。最早提出「修昔底德陷阱」的美國學者艾莉森,在2017年出版的《終將一戰乎?》中,整理統計了近500年歷史中全部16對的老大老二關係,其中12對即75%的概率最終是走向的戰爭。中美作為人類歷史上最新的一對,會不會也成為75%大概率的一方,還是能倖免一戰?

還是先得從美國的戰略計算開始。為了維持霸權,美國必須把中國這個新老二幹掉,已無任何懸念,關鍵是中美博弈鬥到現在,美方是越鬥越吃力,手中僅剩兩牌,而且科技牌未必能贏,甚至不排除還有反效果,台灣牌於是即是美國手中唯一的王牌了。

邏輯上,美方的台灣牌有兩種打法,一種是美國「蘭德」智庫建議的,在台海製造一場常規戰爭,誘使中國介入,並造成中國在產業金融科技上的巨大破壞,甚至釀成社會及政治危機,徹底打掉中國崛起的勢頭。美國迫不及待地強化台灣軍力,將台灣打造成軍火庫,想方設法把日、韓、菲搞成統一戰線,與台灣呼應,均屬此一戰略。但現在的問題是,美國似已錯失了最佳時機,換言之,美在台海及西太已無必勝把握,且時間越久於美國越不利。

而就在此時,美國經濟及債務問題從短期看已火燒眉毛,從長期看也已成不治之症,能解燃眉之急也有利於舒緩深層經濟危機的,環顧宇內恐怕只有中國了。何況長久以來在台灣問題上的不斷加碼,何嘗不是與北京進行交換的籌碼,看來這就不無可能成為美方在打台灣牌上的另一種選擇了。

巧的是蘇利文,他曾向他的長官希拉蕊分享過美國跟中國「交換」台灣的建議,現在他擔任了拜登的國安顧問,王、蘇維也納會談,很難不讓人產生聯想。

(作者為鳳凰衛視資深評論員)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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