US Takes Advantage of Ukraine Crisis To Destabilize Europe

Published in The People's Daily
(China) on 30 May 2023
by Zhou Zhuobin, Xing Xue, Liu Zhonghua (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephanie Pan. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
How the U.S. seized strategic benefits from the Ukrainian crisis

Since the eruption of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has only fanned the flames by providing military aid and imposing extreme sanctions, leading to the expansion and persistence of the crisis and creating the greatest geopolitical disaster Europe has seen since the Cold War. The United States takes advantage of the crisis to further kidnap Europe's dependence on the United States in terms of energy and security, and curb European strategic autonomy. When the worsening security situation prompted European countries to increase military spending, it was the United States that reaped all the benefits, with the economic loss and refugee crisis brought by the war disproportionately borne by European countries.

According to Anthony H. Cordesman, an American national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States’ constant fueling of the Ukrainian crisis is an investment whose benefits greatly exceed its costs because it offers enormous strategic benefits to the United States. Michele Geraci, the former undersecretary of state at the Italian Ministry of Economic Development, explained how NATO’s continued expansion eastward under U.S. leadership was one of the root causes of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, with Europe being the one to bear the cost of this crisis.

Increased Control over European Security Strategy

On April 4, Finland officially joined NATO to become the 31st member of the organization. As Finnish President Sauli Niinistö announced, Finland’s entry into NATO marked the end of the country’s era of military nonalignment. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, “This has been the fastest accession process in NATO’s modern history … I look forward also to welcoming Sweden into the Alliance as soon as possible.” According to analysts, the long-standing applications of Finland, a long-standing military nonaligned country, and of Sweden to join NATO at the same time last May highlighted the reality that European security is being further tied strategically to U.S.-led NATO.

After the end of the Cold War, the U.S. pushed for a continuous expansion of NATO eastward, placing pressure on Russia’s own expansionist strategy, while also strengthening its political, military and economic control over Europe. After the eruption of the Ukrainian crisis, the European Union tried to accelerate the construction of security and defense integration through the Versailles declaration and A Strategic Compass for Security and Defense. However, after a year, the progress of the EU’s strategic autonomy in security and defense has suffered many obstacles. Pressing security and defense needs prompted Europe to continue tightening its ties with NATO, deepening its dependence on the United States, with the U.S., in turn, continuing to squeeze benefits from its allies.

“To justify U.S. leadership, to present a unitary front in NATO, and to justify big increases in western … military budgets, Russia must be presented as the common enemy.” According to Robert Wade, professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, escalating the crisis in Ukraine through U.S.-led NATO has two benefits. On the one hand, it can hold down Russia, and on the other, bond members of NATO together.

“America is the big winner of the war in Ukraine - and all of Europe will lose.” As the British publication site iNews believes, the United States is exploiting the Ukraine crisis to plunder and hollow out Europe. Compared to the U.S., Europe has disproportionately borne the negative effects of the war. The article notes how “Hot and cold wars in a divided Europe played a crucial role in the 20th century in making the United States the most powerful state on the planet. The war in Ukraine is having a similar impact this century in promoting American primacy.”

Wu Huiping, a professor at the German Studies Center of Tongji University, believes that security and defense were originally intended as a means of promoting European strategic autonomy and were one of its most crucial policy areas. Since the Ukraine crisis, not only has Europe failed to realize its original intentions, but rather, it has further deepened its dependence on NATO, with “the U.S. increasing its grip on Europe’s security strategy.”

“The United States provoked war to vassalize Europe … America uses this Ukrainian crisis to destabilize Europe.” Reflecting upon the development of the situation after the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, this is what the grandson of former French President Charles de Gaulle, economist Pierre de Gaulle, had to say in a recent interview with French newspaper Le Parisien.

US Arms Dealers Reap Enormous Profits

According to the recent annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, after more than a year of the crisis in Ukraine, one by one, European countries have increased military spending. The report details how in 2022, European military spending shot up by 13% compared to 2021, the largest increase in more than 30 years. The Military Balance Report 2022, released by the British research institute, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed out that under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis, European military spending soared in 2022. Of this, military spending increased in 16 countries, military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product increased in 12 countries, while the remaining seven countries plan to increase the proportion of military spending in the short term.

For more than a year, NATO countries, led by the United States, have continued to provide weapons to Ukraine, itself also beginning the process of military expansion, a fact that is heavily profiting American arms dealers. As Timothy Garton Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House in the U.K., once wrote: “[T]he war is … pushing NATO partners to quickly increase spending [on defense] ... Given the US’ technological advantage in defense equipment, a sizeable share of this additional military outlay will be spent on US equipment.”

Reuters reported that the crisis in Ukraine sparked an increase in European demand for U.S. weapons and military equipment, with European countries not only investing large amounts of money in purchasing American-made weapons to ship them to Ukraine but also to replenish their own dwindling supplies of ammunition. According to an analysis by U.S. magazine Foreign Policy, “The United States nearly doubled the number and price tag of approved arms sales to NATO allies in 2022 compared with 2021.” Based on data from the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, “In 2021, the U.S. government approved 14 possible major arms sales to NATO allies worth around $15.5 billion. In 2022, that jumped up to 24 possible major arms sales worth around $28 billion, including $1.24 billion worth of arms sales to expected future NATO member Finland[.]”

The war in Europe has become a rare opportunity for American arms dealers to make huge profits. Take the American 155 mm howitzer shell, for example. Last year, the United States supplied Ukraine with 1 million rounds of ammunition, with each round averaging a price of U.S. $800. In the next two years, U.S. arms dealers plan to increase production capacity from 30,000 rounds to 90,000 rounds per month in order to replenish supplies of ammunition, not only in the United States, but in Norway, Finland, France, Germany and Italy as well.

Despite the fact the Dow Jones in the United States fell by 10% in 2022, shares of U.S. defense contractors continued to soar, with shares of Northrop Grumman skyrocketing nearly 40% and Lockheed Martin’s shares increasing by over 30%. Reuters reported that starting with the Ukrainian crisis, soaring European demand for U.S. arms has caused the stock prices of several major American military corporations to rise, increasing their market value by $35 billion.

Europe’s Demand for Strategic Autonomy Met with Barriers

Since the beginning of this year, several European leaders have emphasized the issue of Europe’s strategic autonomy. As French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated, Europe should not get “caught up in crises that are not ours” and that establishing strategic autonomy is essential to preventing European states from becoming vassals.

Europe's demands for strategic autonomy have long existed but have been met continuously with American opposition and constraints, both overtly and covertly. Against the backdrop of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, the process of European integration has been met with another setback, with relations between some countries worsening. According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, the Ukrainian conflict could become a critical dividing line in Europe. Between member states, between government stance and public sentiment, the divide between Eastern and Western Europe is widening. As its report, published last year, “Peace versus Justice: The Coming European Split over the War in Ukraine,” clearly pointed out: “Most Europeans see the EU as a major loser in the war.”

When interviewed by our reporter, Szalma György, director of the reporting department at the Hungarian Democrat magazine, said: “As the dominant force in NATO, America sees continental Europe as a tool. A stick that can be used to deal with any external conflicts whenever it pleases.” Pascal Boniface, director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, said that Europe cannot hand over the keys to its own security to foreign countries. When the United States places sanctions on Europe they do not consider Europe as an ally, but rather “as people who must obey them.”

Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University, believes what the U.S. is doing to Europe fully illustrates the true nature of American diplomacy: loving conflict, manufacturing conflict, and taking advantage of conflict. While the U.S. adds fuel to the fire of the Ukrainian crisis, it uses the opportunity to seize the flow of development in European countries, forcing countries to have to spend more money on developing military equipment, and essentially stripping European countries of their right to develop. The United States cares only about its own national interests and is obsessed with the competition for power. It is indifferent to its allies and the interests of other countries. “From the perspective of the United States, Europe’s crisis is America’s opportunity,” Li said.

According to Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the ideals and concepts of European strategic autonomy or European sovereignty should remain unchanged. What Europe needs is to become stronger and more united, not directly dependent on the United States.


美国如何从乌克兰危机中攫取战略利益

乌克兰危机爆发以来,美国大搞拱火助战、极限制裁,导致危机扩大化、持久化,造成冷战后欧洲最大的地缘政治灾难。美国借危机进一步绑架欧洲在能源和安全上对美国的依赖,遏制欧洲战略自主。安全形势恶化刺激欧洲各国提高军费,美国坐收渔翁之利。战争带来的经济损失和难民危机又不成比例地由欧洲国家承担。

  美国战略与国际研究中心防务问题专家安东尼·科德斯曼认为,美国不断拱火乌克兰危机是一项收益远超成本的投资,为美国提供了巨大的战略利益。意大利经济发展部前副部长米凯莱·杰拉奇表示,北约在美国主导下不断东扩是造成乌克兰危机升级的根源之一,而危机的代价主要由欧洲承担。

  加大对欧洲战略安全的控制

  4月4日,芬兰正式加入北约,成为该组织第三十一个成员国。芬兰总统尼尼斯托表示,芬兰加入北约标志着该国军事不结盟的时代已经结束。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格说,这是北约历史上最快的入约进程,也期待着瑞典能尽快加入。分析人士表示,长期奉行军事不结盟的芬兰、瑞典于去年5月同时申请加入北约,凸显了欧洲安全被美国主导的北约进一步战略捆绑的现实。

  冷战结束后,美国推动北约不断东扩,在挤压俄罗斯战略生存空间的同时,也加强了对欧洲政治、军事和经济的控制。乌克兰危机爆发后,欧盟通过了《凡尔赛宣言》和《安全与防务战略指南针》,力图加速安全与防务一体化建设。但一年多过去,欧盟在安全防务领域的战略自主进程依然受到诸多掣肘。迫切的安全防务需求促使欧洲继续加紧与北约捆绑,加深对美国依赖。美国则源源不断地从盟友身上榨取利益。

  “为了证明美国领导地位的正当性,证明北约的正当性,证明西方大幅增加军费预算的正当性,俄罗斯必须被视为敌人。”英国伦敦政治经济学院教授罗伯特·韦德认为,以美国为首的北约通过升级乌克兰危机,一方面拖住俄罗斯,另一方面黏合北约内部成员。

  “美国是俄乌冲突的大赢家,而欧洲是输家。”英国iNews网站刊文认为,美国利用乌克兰危机巧取豪夺“掏空”欧洲。相比美国,欧洲不成比例地承担了战争带来的负面影响。文章指出:“20世纪,美国就是在欧洲的分裂、热战和冷战交织中获利而变得强大。而这一次,美国再次通过陷入战争的欧洲获利。”

  同济大学德国研究中心教授伍慧萍认为,安全防务原本是欧洲推进战略自主的初衷,也是最关键的政策领域之一。乌克兰危机以来,欧洲不但没有实现初衷,反而进一步加深了对北约的依赖,“美国加大了对欧洲战略安全的控制”。

  “美国挑起战争把欧洲变成附庸……美国利用乌克兰危机破坏了欧洲稳定。”回顾乌克兰危机升级后的局势演变,法国前总统戴高乐之孙、经济学家皮埃尔·戴高乐近期在接受法国《巴黎人报》采访时这样说。

  美国军火商获得巨额利润

  瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所近日发布的年度报告称,乌克兰危机一年多来,欧洲国家纷纷提高国防开支。报告显示,2022年欧洲军费开支较2021年增加13%,是30多年来的最大增幅。英国智库国际战略研究所发布的《2022军力平衡报告》指出,受乌克兰危机影响,2022年欧洲各国军费开支激增。其中,16个国家提高了军费开支,12个国家军费开支占国内生产总值比重增加,另有7个国家计划短期内提高军费开支比重。

  一年多来,以美国为首的北约国家持续向乌克兰方面提供武器,自身也开启扩军进程,实则肥了美国军火商。英国皇家国际问题研究所副研究员蒂莫西·阿什曾撰文指出:“乌克兰危机促使北约成员国迅速增加防务支出,其中相当大一部分将用于购买美国装备。”

  路透社的报道称,乌克兰危机导致欧洲对美国武器和军事装备需求大增。欧洲国家一方面投入大笔资金购买美制武器运往乌克兰,另一方面补充自身不断消耗的弹药库。根据美国《外交政策》杂志的一项分析,与2021年相比,2022年美国批准向北约成员国出售武器的数量和金额增加了近一倍。美国国防部防务安全合作局的数据显示,2021年,美国政府批准了14笔面向北约盟国的重大军售计划,价值约155亿美元。2022年,此类获批重大军售猛增至24笔,价值约280亿美元,其中包括价值12.4亿美元对芬兰的军售。

  欧洲战火成为美国军火商获得巨额利润的难得机会。以美制155毫米口径榴弹炮弹为例,去年美国已向乌克兰供应了100万发该型炮弹,每发平均价格800美元。未来两年,美国军火商计划将生产能力从每月3万发提高到9万发,用以补充美国及挪威、芬兰、法国、德国、意大利的弹药库。

  尽管美国道琼斯工业平均指数2022年全年整体下跌了10%,但美国防务承包商的股价仍大幅上涨,其中诺思罗普·格鲁曼公司的股价猛涨近40%,洛克希德·马丁公司股价则上涨超过30%。路透社报道称,乌克兰危机以来,欧洲对美国武器需求的飙升,推动了美国几大军工企业股价大涨,市值已增加350亿美元。

  欧洲战略自主诉求遭到掣肘

  今年以来,欧洲多位领导人强调欧洲战略自主问题。法国总统马克龙不久前表示,欧洲不应“陷入本不属于我们的危机”,建立战略自主性对于防止欧洲国家成为附庸至关重要。

  欧洲的战略自主诉求早就存在,但一直遭到美国或明或暗的掣肘和反对。在乌克兰危机持续的背景下,欧洲一体化进程再起波折,部分国家之间关系更陷入低谷。欧洲智库欧洲对外关系委员会认为,乌克兰危机可能成为欧洲的关键分界线。成员国之间、政府立场与民众情绪之间、东欧与西欧之间的分歧都在加大。在其去年发布的报告《和平与正义:欧洲即将因为乌克兰危机而分裂》中明确指出:“大多数欧洲人已经将欧盟视为战争的主要输家。”

  《匈牙利民主者》杂志记者部主任萨尔马·久尔吉接受本报记者采访时表示:“作为北约的主导力量,美国将欧洲大陆视为工具,可随时按照它的喜好充当处理各种对外冲突的大棒。”法国国际关系与战略研究所所长帕斯卡尔·博尼法斯表示,欧洲不能把自己安全的钥匙交给外国。美国人在制裁欧洲时并不认为欧洲是盟友,“而是认为我们必须服从他们”。

  外交学院国际关系研究所教授李海东认为,美国对欧洲的所作所为,充分说明了美国外交的本质:热爱危机、制造危机、利用危机。美国拱火乌克兰危机,借此绑架欧洲国家的发展节奏,各国不得不拿出更多的资金来发展军备,这实质上是剥夺了欧洲国家的发展权。美国只关心自己国家的利益,醉心于大国竞争,对于盟友和其他国家利益漠不关心。“在美国看来,欧洲的危机就是美国的机遇。”李海东说。

  欧洲对外关系委员会高级政策研究员乌尔里克·弗兰克认为,欧洲战略自主或者欧洲主权的理想和理念应保持不变。欧洲需要变得更强大、更团结,而不是直接依赖美国。
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