There Are Wagner Group Imitators in the United States

Just like the ultimate fate that awaits ideologies pushed by Putin and Prighozin, the Russian leaders they idolized, Trumpist militias (or worse) will never achieve their dreams — a new southern Confederacy is just as much a chimera as a pan-Slavic empire — but they have the means and the will to create chaos that would last a long time in those isolated states that have fewer people than Portugal. And it’s worth remembering that only nine states have populations greater than Portugal.

This was the first thought that crossed my mind on Saturday, June 24: in the United States, Trumpist militias will get ideas and try to imitate the Wagner convoy, not in an attack on the Capitol in Washington, D.C., but rather in an attack on the capitols spread throughout the deepest parts of the country.

These groups already exist as militias armed to the teeth, scattered throughout various states in the Union. Some members have recently been found guilty of participating, directly or indirectly, in the assault on the U.S. Capitol in January, 2021, a rehearsal for something much more momentous. Some members have been convicted, but there are a great many more, and they possess weaponry worthy of a small army. They feel the current federal regime is illegitimate, that Joe Biden is a thief, and they are prepared to use the strength of their militias in a truncated version of the 1776 revolution. Let me emphasize this point: more than 20 million Americans feel the use of force against Biden’s federal authorities would be legitimate.

It’s important to understand that a civil war is not something that could only occur in Russia. In the heart of the West, in American heartlands far from the coasts, thousands of men in every way identical to Wagner militia members in their thinking, as well as their readiness to use force, are just waiting for the right trigger to unleash chaos similar to the challenge to Putin. In some states, these militias can easily gather thousands of men in armed convoys headed to state capitols and other state government bodies with the goal of rekindling ideas of secession and the Confederacy, dreams that have not been entirely buried.

This scenario is all the more plausible once we recognize that substantial portions of the population would be on their side. Many of these people are military veterans who have struggled to adapt to normal civilian life and end up losing family and other social connections. All they have left is the bond to a sense of belonging their barracks once provided, wherever they might be.

Just like the ultimate fate that awaits the ideologies pushed by the Russian leaders they idolized, Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prighozin, these Trumpist militias (or worse) will never achieve their dreams – a new southern Confederacy is just as much a chimera as a pan-Slavic empire – but they have the means and the will to create chaos that would last a long time in those isolated states that have fewer people than Portugal. And it’s worth remembering that only nine states have populations greater than Portugal.

It’s astonishing to realize how much the population of the United States is concentrated on the East and West coasts, as well as in the South (Texas). The American heartland is made up of states much larger than Portugal, in terms of their area, but with far fewer people, the ideal landscape for guerrilla forces. In this sense, the emergence in the United States of something similar to the Wagner Group wouldn’t even be a surprise, but rather the continuation of an American tradition.