Why Trump’s Possible Win Wouldn’t Mean a Russian Victory*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

The U.S. will hardly give up its support for Ukraine even if Donald Trump becomes president again.

For supporters of Donald Trump, it's a time of optimistic expectations, with most polls painting a very favorable picture for the former president. A year before the 2024 presidential election, Trump's lead over the somewhat unpopular incumbent, Joe Biden, is comparable to figures from around 20 years ago when the Democratic Party was in crisis and unable to find any charismatic rival to George W. Bush. Of course, a lot can change in a year. For example, an internal coup in the Republican Party is possible — the Koch family, which presides over a key and longstanding alliance of conservative donors, has openly backed Trump's rival, Nikki Haley. The Democrats could also prefer to take a risk and nominate a different presidential candidate, someone who can change the course of the campaign, for example, the ever-popular Barack Obama. Other scenarios are possible, even those that seem entirely unimaginable now. After all, democratic elections are unpredictable.

But for now, Trump's supporters are already starting to celebrate — and this jubilant mood is infecting Russia as well. This situation is remarkably similar to 2016, when the members of the Russian State Duma drank champagne on the night of the U.S. presidential election, openly celebrating Trump's victory. At the time, Moscow associated his presidency with hopes of normalizing Russian-American relations. Now, Russia associates Trump's possible return to power with hopes that the U.S. would give up supporting Ukraine. Nowadays, state TV channels like to quote Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Sen. Josh Hawley or Tucker Carlson, who often talk about cutting aid to Kyiv. However, those who expect policy changes under Trump seem to have forgotten what his presidency was like — his tenure made history thanks to the record number of anti-Russian sanctions imposed. Even if one considers that sanctions were imposed despite, not because of Trump, there is no reason to believe that the situation will be fundamentally different if he wins again in 2024.

Yes, there are Trumpist members of Congress who favor placing the brunt of support for Ukraine on the EU rather than the U.S. However, fundamentally, these politicians do not deny the need to take Kyiv's side in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in the first place. Moreover, it's worth remembering that members of Congress like Taylor Green do not represent the entire Republican Party. There are other Trump associates and like-minded individuals, like Sen. Lindsey Graham and Sen. Jim Risch, who have been consistently anti-Kremlin. For instance, the most recent example of the prevailing anti-Kremlin U.S. policy is the bipartisan Asset Seizure for Ukraine Reconstruction Act proposed by the senators. So, who says that all Republicans will change their mind if Trump wins? And, of course, Trump himself has changed since 2016. Having learned from bitter experience, he is now shying away from Russia, instead criticizing Biden for his miscalculations on Moscow. Additionally, Trump no longer says he is ready to get along with Vladimir Putin to confront China with Russia's help. After all, foreign policy is not the most important issue for a typical American voter, especially a Republican. Even if Trump is interested in something outside of America, that would be the situation in the Middle East — and Trump voters are more likely to support aid to Israel than Ukraine. If Trump considers forging closer ties with Russia, he'll face old accusations, like his association with Kremlin hackers who allegedly rigged the 2016 presidential election and other allegations that have not been proven but are still fresh in the minds of the American public. That is why Trump, a pragmatist to the bone, will think twice before changing the country's foreign policy. After all, this can not only backfire on Trump, but, to use the former president's turn of phrase, burn him down.