Companies Must Prepare for Risk of Division between US and China

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 30 December 2023
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Itaru Ebihara. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The tensions between the U.S. and China are not only affecting diplomacy and defense in Japan, but are also having an impact on private companies. The U.S. and China, two influential countries, are imposing trade restrictions, among other measures, thus raising significant business risks that Japanese companies cannot ignore.

Business leaders must accurately assess their current situation and take swift measures to minimize the damage in advance of any unforeseen emergency.

The primary risk of division between the U.S. and China is economic coercion. The Chinese government strengthened export controls over graphite, a key material for electric vehicle batteries, in December 2023, for example. As a result, battery-related companies like Mitsubishi Chemical Group are facing challenges in sourcing raw materials at their Japan domestic facilities.

It is unclear whether this situation will be temporary or long-term. However, companies must diversify the source of procurement and depend less on China.

Mitsubishi Chemical is considering other countries such as Mozambique as alternative supply sources. Panasonic Energy, a major company in batteries, has initiated joint research with a Canadian graphite company. Although it increases time and cost, it is essential to diversify resources to keep China in check.

Similar to past oil crises, Japan must take measures such as stockpiling, diversifying sources, and developing alternative resources and technologies to reduce vulnerability due to dependence on foreign resources. Companies and the government must take a comprehensive approach to collaboration to overcome such vulnerabilities.

It is also crucial to keep strategic technology within Japan. There are many areas such as electronic components where companies in Japan are leading. Leaking of technology poses a potential risk of establishing a joint factory overseas, something that could affect the entire industry.

This is a troubling issue, but we need a general consensus among the entire industry that such technology should remain outside the public domain. We might need to take legal steps to deal with competition policy issues.

On the other hand, there are export restrictions on strategic technology imposed by the U.S. that constrain Japanese companies. While it is necessary to comply with enforceable regulations, companies also want to avoid excessive compliance that might lead to missed business opportunities.

It is also important for companies to urge the governments of Japan, the United States, and others to refrain from blindly expanding export restrictions. In this regard, Japan would likely work well together with U.S. industry.

The year 2024 is expected to be a critical year for the success of companies given the geopolitical risks that are significantly influencing their fortunes.


[社説]企業は米中分断リスクへの備えを急げ

米中関係の緊張が日本の外交や防衛だけでなく、個々の企業にも直接的な影響を及ぼし始めた。米中2大国の打ち出す貿易規制などの措置が、日本企業にも無視できない経営リスクに浮上する。

経営者は自社の置かれた状況をできるだけ正確に把握し、万一の事態が起きても打撃を最小限に抑える備えを急ぎたい。

米中分断リスクの筆頭が、中国によるいわゆる経済的威圧だ。例えば電気自動車用電池の原料であるグラファイト(黒鉛)について、中国政府は2023年12月に輸出管理体制を強化した。その結果、足元では三菱ケミカルグループなど電池関連企業の国内拠点は原料調達に困難をきたしている。

この状態が一時的か長く続くのかは分からないが、企業としては調達先を多様化し、中国依存度を引き下げる必要がある。

実際に三菱ケミカルはモザンビークなど代替供給地の検討を始めた。電池大手のパナソニックエナジーもカナダの黒鉛企業と共同研究に着手した。時間とコストはかかるが、必要なプロセスだろう。調達先が分散できれば、中国へのけん制材料にもなる。

かつての石油危機も同じだが、資源の海外依存による脆弱性を減らすために、日本の取るべき手立ては備蓄や調達先の分散、代替資源・技術の開発だ。企業だけでなく、政府も含めた官民一体の取り組みが欠かせない。

戦略技術の防衛も重要だ。電子部品などでは日本勢がリードする分野も多いが、どこか1社が海外に合弁工場などをつくると、そこから技術が流出し、業界全体が打撃を受ける恐れもある。

悩ましい問題だが、「この技術は門外不出とする」という業界全体の大まかな合意形成が要るのではないか。競争政策上の問題をクリアするために、必要なら法制面の手当ても検討したい。

一方で米国による戦略技術の輸出規制も日本企業を拘束する。強制力を持つ法規制には従うしかないが、過剰なコンプライアンスに陥り、みすみす商機を失うことも避けたい。

企業側が日米はじめ各国政府に「やみくもに輸出規制を広げるな」と働きかけることも重要だ。その点では米産業界などとも共同歩調を取れるだろう。

2024年は地政学リスクの見極めがこれまで以上に企業の浮沈を左右する年になる。
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