2024 Is a Test for Democracy*

For my first column of the year, I am writing about 2024, the year of all elections. Outside Europe, elections are scheduled in the United States, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Taiwan, among other countries, while Europe will see elections for the European Parliament in Belgium, Austria, Finland, Great Britain, and, as we well know, right here in Portugal.

All of these elections will take place according to a normal democratic process. Even when we consider all the factors that might raise serious questions, from artificial intelligence to bots and fake news, the election results should, as such, be respected.

This does not mean there is no reason to worry, given that these elections will be occur at a moment when it is not likely there will be any resolution to the international conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, both fraught with enormous humanitarian, geopolitical and economic consequences.

The expected growth of far-right, anti-Europeanist populist parties in the European Parliament will have a dire impact on immigration policies, the rights of women and minorities, respect for democratic institutions, as well as support for Ukraine. The success of these parties in a number of European countries — in Italy and Hungary, where they hold power, but also in Austria and Finland, where they lead election polling, as well as in Sweden and Greece, where they hold significant parliamentary representation, — has already shifted the political center to the right and jeopardized pluralist practice.

In the United States, the scenario could be even worse if Donald Trump wins the election in November. Although Colorado and Maine have ruled that he cannot appear on the state primary ballots because of the role he played in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, (a fact that, in a democracy, should be enough to stop him from being a candidate), he continues to be the frontrunner in the race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. On a domestic level, American democracy could well be struck a debilitating blow, as people normalize the disrespect for institutions and human rights, and disinformation and hate speech proliferate. In the international arena, in addition to the deeply serious consequences facing the battle against climate change, NATO and the United Nations’ capacity to intervene will be greatly diminished, allowing the rule of force to spread on a global scale. Ukraine will be left on its own as it faces Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and Israel will certainly find support as it continues its war of extermination in Gaza.

In Argentina, we don’t know what the madness of newly elected President Javier Milei has in store for us. For now, he has largely governed by decree in an attempt to get around the fact he lacks a majority in Congress, and the images showing him putting down protests in recent days invoke the dark days of the military dictatorship.

It is true that these threats are emerging as the result of free elections in democratic nations. This is, without a doubt, a mark of the ethical superiority of democracy. Unlike dictators, democrats respect the outcome of elections, even when these pose serious challenges to essential democratic processes. But until those challenges to democracy prevail — and I hope they never do — we must remain vigilant and fight to stop the growing influence of these forces. Particularly in Portugal, in the year we will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the April 25 revolution.

*Editor’s Note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.