Fear as an Incentive

Former President Donald Trump is threatening to leave NATO members in the lurch if they do not pay their dues. Europe should see this as an opportunity.

Former President Donald Trump has made more trouble with his latest statement concerning the trans-Atlantic military alliance, NATO. During an election campaign event in South Carolina on Saturday, the 78-year-old proudly explained that during his time in office he told a member state in the event of missed NATO payments, “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.” Trump repeated his words from back then.

The statement was sharply criticized by the White House, U.S. Democrats and NATO itself. “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk. I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election, the U.S. will remain a strong and committed NATO ally,” Jens Stoltenberg said.

The fact that the NATO secretary-general felt compelled to quickly reject Trump’s statement shows just how important the U.S. continues to be for Europe’s security. Europe has relied on the United States for almost 80 years, and NATO is celebrating its 75th anniversary this year. An important component of the alliance has always been the principle of deterrence.

During the Cold War, the threat of nuclear war ensured that the U.S. and the Soviet Union didn’t find themselves in direct conflict with one another. Even today, with the might of the U.S. military behind it, NATO has a deterrent effect. But after decades of dependence, it is perhaps not a bad idea for Europe to step up its own effects to protect itself. Everyone from French President Emmanuel Macron, to German Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius to Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Antonio Tajani agree on this.

Therefore, the fear of a second Trump term could be enough to bring about a new era of European security policy. When he was in office, Trump referred to NATO as “superfluous” and constantly criticized countries that fell short of the 2% target. This requires member states to invest at least 2% of their gross domestic product in defense.

If Trump is reelected in November, there is no guarantee that the U.S. will remain in NATO. Europe must put together its own defense capabilities with a deterrent effect as soon as possible. But the Ukraine war shows that, in the medium term, there is no way around the U.S.