The Price for Riyadh

The U.S. continues work to normalize relations between Saudia Arabia and Israel — but without taking Benjamin Netanyahu into consideration. In this respect, Hamas’ bet is paying off.

Among the changes that the war in Gaza has caused in Middle Eastern diplomacy is the high price that Israel would have to pay to normalize relations with Saudia Arabia.

Before the attack by Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu could hope to thread the needle of making the strategically significant move against Iran without significant concessions to the Palestinians.

Now, credible progress toward a two-state solution is becoming a prerequisite in Riyadh. Netanyahu’s coalition of settler activists and religious Zionists will have a hard time accepting this; the prime minister himself is said to have already rejected the idea in January.

Netanyahu Has Not Yet Conceded

Thus, another image is emerging that we already recognize from the debate over humanitarian aid for Gaza. The United States is moving forward, just as Antony Blinken has recently done again in Saudi Arabia, but without considering the Israeli government.

Things look similar in the U.N. Security Council, where Washington wants to put forward a draft resolution that would increase pressure on Netanyahu.

Netanyahu has not yet conceded, which may also be due to widespread sentiment in Israel. But the country’s political costs are increasing, both in terms of the West and the region. In this respect, Hamas’ bet is paying off.