It Will Be Impossible To Reach an Agreement*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

The White House is doing everything it can not to let House Speaker Mike Johnson off the hook. The House of Representatives is returning from recess and it expects the speakers main agenda item will be putting a military aid package for Ukraine up for a vote. The biggest issue is not even what the will contain. Until now, no one has been able to agree on the package. Republicans want something in return.

However, none of the Republican ideas has delighted the White House. Although no one in Joe Biden’s administration chose to publicly argue with Johnson after he told Fox News that he planned to formalize the aid to Kyiv as a loan using $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, there are just too many pitfalls.

The loan option, first conceived by Donald Trump is like a ticking time bomb for the deep state.

Today, money. Tomorrow, weapons. The day after, paying off debts.

Seems logical. However the Kyiv regime requires too much money, and the list of those willing to use this money in America is not limited to the military-industrial complex. Was it in vain that Biden appointed a representative of one of the richest families in America, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, as the U.S. special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery? Pritzker wouldn’t proceed if arms debt would burn the Ukrainian credit rating to the ground.

It is also a disadvantage for other American allies. Today Ukraine, tomorrow Israel, and afterward NATO countries? How will it then differ from the Trump’s purely transactional approach, a man who ask everyone counting on the American defense umbrella to tighten their belts? By the way, speaking of somebody else’s (i.e., ours) $300 billion, something that Washington so easily discusses, that is also a European matter. Most of the Russian assets that they want to get their dirty paws on are located in the Old World. It’s the Old World that has suggested undermining the reputation of the same euro in this case of illegally confiscating assets, not the dollar’s reputation, right?

Johnson’s attempt to advance the idea of lifting the Biden administration’s moratorium on the export capacity of liquefied natural gas looked completely childish. The speaker didn’t hide the fact he was doing all this in the name of building the future gigantic terminal, with an export volume of 20 million tons, in his native Louisiana, something the White House, to put it mildly, did not appreciate. After all, a green transition is more precious to the Democrats than any blue and yellow flag.

And one more thing. Not all conservatives dream about the prosperity of the energy complex. The main complaint about Johnson is that there are no votes from the Democrats, who are doing their best to make it clear that they will save the speaker if he faces dismissal after a vote on the Ukraine package. It’s either by the power of their majority (218 seat to 213) or not at all. Marjorie Taylor Greene sounded the alarm about dismissing Johnson in an interview with Tucker Carlson.

From a media point of view, this is the last stage before Trump. Johnson’s interlocutors have not spared him. They questioned his Christianity (which is important for evangelical voters), as well as his morals. Fussing about a country where churches are being closed and the population slaughtered, is this the path a pious conservative should follow? There were also hints of blackmail. Who knows, maybe there was something to catch Johnson with. He himself admits that he is exhausted and sleeps only three hours a night.

Senior White House Advisor and Counselor to the President Steve Ricchetti and White House Director of Legislative Affairs Shuwanza Goff would know something about this. They were assigned to work closely with the speaker on Ukrainian aid. If they fail, it will be even more difficult.

Reaching an agreement that would secure support from a Republican majority may take months. People are speaking of July as a possible deadline.

After that, it will be completely impossible to come to an agreement. America will turn completely inward before the election in November. In the U.S., they are not just electing a president; they're also electing members of Congress.