The increasingly radical protests against the war in Gaza could cost the U.S. president reelection. Palestinians would have nothing to gain from this.
Echoes of Vietnam are reverberating through U.S. universities: Just as in 1968, students and left-wing professors are protesting against a Democratic president who is standing by a controversial ally in a bloody war, bringing life on campus to a standstill. Although no U.S. soldiers are involved this time, critics’ anger over Joe Biden’s policy in the Gaza war is on a par with the radical sentiment of that time.
The continuation of anti-Vietnam-style protests does not bode well for either party. President Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to run for reelection due to low approval ratings, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August 1968 became a battleground between protesters and police, and Vice President Hubert Humphrey narrowly lost to Richard Nixon. Nixon continued the military operation for years and expanded the bombing campaign.
Is Biden facing a similar fate? This year, the Democratic National Convention is also being held in Chicago. There is a looming threat of mass protests and riots, which would damage the president’s image with both left and right-wing voters. Biden’s weak approval ratings are mainly due to his losing ground among younger voters, who hold his support for Israel against him. The growing U.S. criticism of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the massive commitment to humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip are doing little to change this.
This benefits Donald Trump, who would likely set the U.S. back on a strictly pro-Israeli course. Palestinians and their supporters would gain nothing from this — quite the opposite, in fact.
A Majority in the US Support Israel
Biden cannot find a solution to this dilemma. Solidarity with Israel remains popular among a majority of U.S. voters; distancing himself more strongly from the country would cost him votes from those in the center. If Israel does not end the war by the summer, the Gaza war could be instrumental in helping Trump return to the White House, powerfully aided by the left-wing protest movement.
By contrast, Trump’s numerous court cases are proving to be relatively harmless for him. The conservative majority in the Supreme Court seem to be ensuring that the trial related to the storming of the Capitol will not take place until after Election Day. The indictment in the hush money trial in New York has serious legal shortcomings.
Trump has been incredibly lucky throughout his life. Perhaps he will continue to be lucky this year.
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