Conspiracy Theorists Versus Pragmatists*
Published in Kommersant
(Russia) on 21 May 2024
by Maxim Yusin (link to original)
*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.
Despite the fact that the United States expressed its official condolences for the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, it will continue to impose sanctions against Iran, the White House said. When asked if the U.S. embargo on the sale of aircraft parts to Iran could have caused the helicopter crash, a State Department representative responded that only “Tehran is responsible for the decision to fly a 45-year-old helicopter in what was described as poor weather conditions.” Maxim Yusin, a political observer for Kommersant FM, discusses the possible international repercussions of the Iranian president's death.
They are already calling Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash a potential "black swan" event in Middle Eastern and possibly in global politics – an unexpected event that could dramatically alter the situation and have extremely dangerous consequences. This will truly be a black swan event if people settle on the most popular among possible explanations for the tragedy in the hours following the helicopter's disappearance.
The conspiracy theory, whether you label it geopolitical or otherwise, posits that the deaths of the Iranian president and foreign minister were not accidental; rather, they were orchestrated by external forces. This narrative swiftly surfaced in blogs, social media, and some media channels, rapidly gaining momentum. Conspiracy theories seem to be very popular these days.
And indeed, at first glance, the arguments of conspiracy theorists sound logical.
Why out of the three helicopters flying from Azerbaijan to Iran did the one carrying the head of state crash? Why did Raisi even agree to participate in this unfortunate dam opening ceremony? The event didn’t even warrant the president's presence. The conspiracy theories claim that Baku insisted on the Iranian leader's personal participation. And Azerbaijan, as is well known, has close ties with Israel, collaborating with it both in the military and security spheres.
The headline “Did Aliyev lure Raisi into a trap?” appeared on the Armenian Telegram channel “Baghramyan 26,” which is considered the mouthpiece of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's team. Media outlets and bloggers in Iran expressed similar sentiments. The only difference in their versions was whose orders Baku was following – Israel or the United States.
The main question now is which path the Iranian authorities will ultimately choose. One option is a calm, detailed investigation without baseless accusations asserting that it it "highly likely" or claiming "who benefits." So far, it seems that Tehran is following this approach. However, there is another path: yielding to the radical segment of society, accusing external enemies and foreign intelligence services, and promising retaliation, as happened after the deaths of Iranian generals in the diplomatic mission building in Damascus. At that time, few doubted that Israel was behind the attack. Currently, there is no such evidence. Celebrations on Israeli social media and blogs don’t count.
We will find out very soon which path the Iranian authorities will choose. Hopefully, it will be a balanced and well-considered decision, not driven by emotions.
However, Tehran rarely acts on its emotions; typically, all its steps are precisely and thoroughly calculated. Moreover, it's important to understand that if Israel is officially accused of the president's assassination, Iran will act more radically than last time when details of the impending strikes against the Jewish state were known in advance, allowing the Israelis and their allies to prepare. This time, the conflict would be real, and there is no certainty that Iran will seek that.
Despite the fact that the United States expressed its official condolences for the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, it will continue to impose sanctions against Iran, the White House said. When asked if the U.S. embargo on the sale of aircraft parts to Iran could have caused the helicopter crash, a State Department representative responded that only “Tehran is responsible for the decision to fly a 45-year-old helicopter in what was described as poor weather conditions.” Maxim Yusin, a political observer for Kommersant FM, discusses the possible international repercussions of the Iranian president's death.
They are already calling Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash a potential "black swan" event in Middle Eastern and possibly in global politics – an unexpected event that could dramatically alter the situation and have extremely dangerous consequences. This will truly be a black swan event if people settle on the most popular among possible explanations for the tragedy in the hours following the helicopter's disappearance.
The conspiracy theory, whether you label it geopolitical or otherwise, posits that the deaths of the Iranian president and foreign minister were not accidental; rather, they were orchestrated by external forces. This narrative swiftly surfaced in blogs, social media, and some media channels, rapidly gaining momentum. Conspiracy theories seem to be very popular these days.
And indeed, at first glance, the arguments of conspiracy theorists sound logical.
Why out of the three helicopters flying from Azerbaijan to Iran did the one carrying the head of state crash? Why did Raisi even agree to participate in this unfortunate dam opening ceremony? The event didn’t even warrant the president's presence. The conspiracy theories claim that Baku insisted on the Iranian leader's personal participation. And Azerbaijan, as is well known, has close ties with Israel, collaborating with it both in the military and security spheres.
The headline “Did Aliyev lure Raisi into a trap?” appeared on the Armenian Telegram channel “Baghramyan 26,” which is considered the mouthpiece of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's team. Media outlets and bloggers in Iran expressed similar sentiments. The only difference in their versions was whose orders Baku was following – Israel or the United States.
The main question now is which path the Iranian authorities will ultimately choose. One option is a calm, detailed investigation without baseless accusations asserting that it it "highly likely" or claiming "who benefits." So far, it seems that Tehran is following this approach. However, there is another path: yielding to the radical segment of society, accusing external enemies and foreign intelligence services, and promising retaliation, as happened after the deaths of Iranian generals in the diplomatic mission building in Damascus. At that time, few doubted that Israel was behind the attack. Currently, there is no such evidence. Celebrations on Israeli social media and blogs don’t count.
We will find out very soon which path the Iranian authorities will choose. Hopefully, it will be a balanced and well-considered decision, not driven by emotions.
However, Tehran rarely acts on its emotions; typically, all its steps are precisely and thoroughly calculated. Moreover, it's important to understand that if Israel is officially accused of the president's assassination, Iran will act more radically than last time when details of the impending strikes against the Jewish state were known in advance, allowing the Israelis and their allies to prepare. This time, the conflict would be real, and there is no certainty that Iran will seek that.
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