Joe Biden’s Obstacle Course

The polls are unfavorable for the incumbent Democratic president as he faces Donald Trump. Biden is no longer able to forge the “Obama coalition” made up principally of African American and Latino minorities. His unconditional support for Israel could also cost him dearly.

With less than six months until the American presidential election, Joe Biden should be worried. His latest polling numbers are very unpromising. His opponent, Donald Trump, is leading in five key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. The American economy and Wall Street may be in great shape compared to Europe, but the Democratic candidate has not managed to capitalize on this in his campaign. Even his successful policies have not seemed to have an impact — in particular, massive investments in infrastructure and the reduction of the overall student debt in the United States, both of which have been especially beneficial to minorities.

Biden’s recent strategy with regard to African American voters stems from the conclusion that Democratic identity politics, which culminated in what was called the “Obama coalition,” no longer work. The Black Americans who had actively joined the Democrats are no longer doing so. Latinos, seduced by Trump’s anti-immigration and anti-abortion rhetoric, are a much less manageable demographic than expected. In 2020, the Republican candidate convinced many more of them than people imagined.

Gaza is another factor troubling the Biden campaign team. The cost of the Democratic administration’s Middle East policy is likely to be very high. American campuses are up in arms against Biden’s approach to the war between Israel and Hamas. The president is accused of not using the leverage at his disposal to prevent the Jewish state from carrying out a vast ground offensive in Rafah and develop a strategy to end the hostilities. His temporary suspension of arms deliveries to Israel convinced no one, especially not American students. Biden has since announced a new arms deal worth $1 billion. Faced with this, the Democrat’s task of persuading young voters to vote for him promises to be titanic.

Trump Is Dangerous

The outlook is bleak, but it should not make us Swiss and Europeans forget that a victory for Biden would be much more favorable for the United States, Europe and the world. Trump’s return to the White House would bode poorly for the future. He is a dangerous man. He has no respect for the rule of law or democracy; he already has a plan to bring the American administration to heel. Several military experts are quite clear: The election of the Republican candidate would probably mean the end of NATO. It could also mean a very harmful break between the United States and Europe at a time when we are seeing a rise of authoritarian powers.

Democrats are clinging to hope born out of a growing number of Republican defections, from Paul Ryan to Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney and Mike Pence. But this hope is not enough to build a campaign strategy.