Don’t Change Horses in Midstream

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Americanist Egor Toropov – on the topic of why it’s specifically Donald Trump and Joe Biden who will be fighting for the presidential office this year.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the 46th and 45th presidents of the U.S., respectively, who seek reelection until 2029, have once more, as in 2020, won their parties’ nominations. At the same time, we are sometimes hearing that it would be preferable to replace Biden and Trump as candidates, despite the fact that they were chosen by the overwhelming majority of voting citizens during the primaries.

On the eve of the primaries, Biden faced significant competition for an incumbent president; usually, members of the president’s party do not challenge his reelection. Nonetheless, if not of the highest rank, those who offered to run against Biden such as senators and governors, were still relatively well-known and wielded social, political and financial clout. Candidates included Robert Kennedy Jr., President John F. Kennedy’s nephew; Dean Phillips, an active member of Congress who won several highly competitive elections in a complex region for the Democrats and who boasts of large personal wealth and his readiness to spend it on election campaigns; and, finally, writer Marianne Williamson.

How did the Democratic primary battle turn out? Robert Kennedy Jr. realized it was impossible to win even before the primaries began and withdrew from the race for the Democratic nomination. He has since campaigned as an independent. Phillips was utterly routed in the initial primaries, ended his campaign and gave his support to Biden. Williamson, having performed a bit better than Phillips, despite her more modest campaign finances, also gave up; however, after she returned to the presidential race several weeks later, although she has no real chance for success. Curiously, in the end, among Biden’s most serious opponents in the end were little-known businessman Jason Palmer, who won in the overseas territory of American Samoa, as well as uncommitted voters –- representing an option similar to voting against everybody, which absorbed the entire protest audience counting slightly less than 4% of all Democrats who voted in the primaries. But, on May 15, Palmer ended his presidential race.

Former President Trump, who, much like the 22nd and 24th president, Grover Cleveland, is trying for another number by his name, predictably faced much tougher competition from a dozen of his fellow party members. A highly competitive battle for the presidential nomination is normal in the United States where there is no sitting president in the party. Candidates included the 46th vice president, Mike Pence, elected with Trump, governors and senators; the mayor of a large city; and businessmen with considerable personal wealth, among others.

Only half made it to the beginning of the primaries. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the only candidate that had relatively decent results, placing second in Iowa and then realizing that his prospects going forward were dim, gave his support to Trump. Similarly, Nikki Haley, Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor, was the only Republican challenger to best Trump in two primaries out of 51: in the District of Columbia and Vermont. Other Trump rivals not only endorsed him but are actively campaigning for the former president, competing for Trump’s attention and good will in hopes of becoming his vice president.

Meanwhile, neither Biden nor Trump has yet been officially nominated by their parties, which provides fertile soil for speculation about whether they may be replaced. The final nominations will take place during the party conventions, where delegates vote their support to the candidate who won in their state.

That said, the outcome of the conventions is practically predetermined: Biden and Trump. Is it possible they could get replaced? Against their will –- which in practice means the will of their supporters? No. The delegates will advocate for those who won in their states during the very first round of the convention vote; a different scenario is possible only if a candidate willingly decides to withdraw or if a candidate is physically unable to accept the nomination. Public and political figures, who are urging the parties to replace presumptive nominees, realize the procedural impossibility of such a scenario and are trying to persuade Biden (or, more unusually, Trump) to withdraw voluntarily. Even Trump’s sentencing for his conviction on criminal charges, expected not long before the Republican Convention on July 15-18, won’t prevent him from running.

The majority of primary voters chose Biden and Trump for a reason. The sitting and former presidents emerged as consensus figures, uniting different, often opposing interparty factions. Their own fellow party member in the White House is better than a president from a competing party. The main goal of the two leading U.S. parties is to ascend to power in the White House and achieve a majority in Congress. The two-party system –- not de jure but de facto –- implies, in the case of unavoidable interparty conflicts, voters will rally around one candidate from the party in November.