Elections in Taiwan and the United States: Turning Point in China-US Relations

2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for international politics, with presidential elections in Taiwan and the U.S.

2024 is shaping up to be a crucial year for international politics, with presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States that could redefine relations between China and the U.S. In a context marked by a trade war and geopolitical tensions, the outcome of these elections could significantly alter the global balance of power.

Taiwan has been the epicenter of regional tensions. President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party is seen as a defender of Taiwanese sovereignty, which has created tension with Beijing.

For its part, Beijing has made it clear that it considers Taiwan a rebel province and has warned that any move toward formal independence could trigger military intervention. In this scenario, the role of the United States is crucial. The U.S. “one China” policy has traditionally been ambiguous, providing military and political support to Taiwan without officially recognizing its independence. A change in this policy could have dramatic repercussions.

The trade war between China and the United States, which began during the administration of Donald Trump, has profoundly affected both economies. High tariffs, export restrictions and non-tariff barriers have disrupted global supply chains, increasing costs for business and consumers. Joe Biden’s administration has maintained many of these policies, seeking to address concerns about unfair trade practices and technological competition.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election will also play a decisive role. A Republican president could take an even tougher stance against China, while a Democratic president could seek a more balanced approach, seeking to negotiate agreements that reduce trade tensions without caving in on key issues such as intellectual property and national security.

Regarding economic and political impact, China-U.S. relations are a centerpiece of the global economy. The trade war has demonstrated how protectionist policies can have unintended side effects, from inflation to slowing economic growth. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait could exacerbate the risks of military conflict.

Taiwan elected a pro-independence leader, and if the United States opts for an administration that strongly supports Taiwan, we could see a significant escalation in tensions with China. More conciliatory policies in both countries could open the door to negotiation and compromise that stabilize the region and promote economic cooperation.

These are decisive moments that could redefine international relations in the 21st century. The trade war between China and the United States has manifested the deep differences between the two powers, and the election results could determine whether these tensions intensify or ease.

In an increasingly interconnected world, political moves in Washington, Beijing and Taipei have the potential to resonate globally, affecting everything from the economy to international security.

Will leaders be able to find a balance that avoids major confrontation and promotes global stability? These are questions that only time, and political decisions, will answer.