*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.
Political scientist Alexander Vedrussov on how an escalation frenzy exposed the ideological-geopolitical failure of the U.S. and NATO.
Half a millennium of the ideological-cultural, socioeconomic, and geopolitical domination of the West has played it a cruel joke. Now, when the winds of history have changed directions, the former masters of the universe simply don’t understand how to behave under the new circumstances. They can’t honestly admit they’re lagging behind and facing impending failure in the capitalist contest. Their pride won’t let it. The inhabitants of the beautiful Euro-Atlantic “garden” appear physically unable to hold a conversation on equal footing with the “jungle” rapidly advancing from the Global South.
Only the dimmest among us are unable to see that the nauseating didactic tone the West takes with developing countries has the opposite effect. The leaders of the Global South more often and more confidently put uninvited lecturers in their place; they constantly remind the West about the balance of power in a world that has inevitably changed. But that always falls on deaf ears.
Three out of the four largest economies in terms of purchasing power parity are already represented by the non-Western world. India has caught up with and surpassed the former standing in terms of gross domestic product; China has bested the U.S. in 37 out of 44 critically important scientific-technological areas – from nanomaterial manufacturing and robotics to radio-frequency communications, defense, and space. Russia maintains a noticeable lead over the West in nuclear research and especially its practical application.
However, the Americans and the Europeans behave like it’s 1991, like the U.S. is still the first, as well as the only, truly global superpower, while today’s reality is that the U.S. is not even the first among equals. Even together with Britain, the European Union, and other satellites outside the Euro-Atlantic, the Americans are still not a force that can continue to impose its will on the rest of the world.
Gunboat diplomacy doesn’t work anymore, while classic diplomacy, it seems, has been forgotten in Washington; although after winning the Cold War, the U.S. had a real chance to literally integrate the entire planet into the American-centered world order, including the Russian Federation and China. The U.S. only had to pretend for a while that Washington recognizes Moscow and Beijing as equal partners, not to be rude, not to belittle, not to put pressure on particularly sore spots. And, quite likely, the U.S. would have been able to slowly suffocate us in its embrace.
Thankfully for Russia and China, that didn’t happen. The project of “Chimerica,” in which the U.S. relegated China to a subordinate role, failed. Relegating post-Soviet Russia to the position of a weakly developed supplier of cheap natural resources to the West also failed. Moreover, America did literally everything to definitely ensure the strategic alliance of Moscow and Beijing. The tactic of actively directing our friendship against the crazed hegemon turned out to be not just viable but almost the only possible strategy for the two great nations striving to protect their sovereignty.
What is left for the West to do in the wake of such a stunningly obvious geopolitical failure? Escalate, escalate, and escalate some more. And at the same time, try for the strategic defeat of Russia, finish Iran with all your strength, and rapidly prepare for a military confrontation with China. Euro-Atlantists are literally torn between different conflict zones, and lack decisive superiority in both. Moreover, with every new strike the West takes against its key opponents, the opponents are gaining momentum as they coordinate in repelling Washington’s aggression, momentum that is taking on increasingly extraordinary forms.
However, Euro-Atlantists are bent on retaining the dangerous illusion that it’s still possible to shove Russia back into the rule-based world that America advances. Direct military confrontation aside, what other hostile action does America and Europe plan to take against Russia? Fifty countries cleaned up their military arsenals to send to the Ukrainian testing ground to use against Russia. Cluster munitions, depleted uranium shells, long-range artillery.
American F-16 fighter aircraft are on the way, one of their modifications is capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The incessant clamor of little Napoleons increases in Europe, which is considering sending NATO troops to Ukraine. However, after Vladimir Putin reminded us about the “small territory and a very dense population” in Tashkent, the talks about direct NATO participation in the war against Russia somewhat died down. Still, we shouldn’t believe that such an option for escalation is off the table.
According to all the doctrines of the old, unipolar world, any country in Russia’s place should have already been broken under increasing pressure from the West and to have submitted to its mercy. But the old world is gone, and the West has imposed more sanctions to Russia than to any other country. Still, the economy of Russia didn’t just survive, it’s growing faster than in the countries that unilaterally imposed countless restrictions on us. The West doesn’t spare any time or energy in turning Asia, Africa, and Latin America against Russia. The global majority is either passive or active, but, in any case, it supports us and increasingly shows its disdain for the crazed ‘white masters’ more openly.
In essence, NATO remains our most dangerous adversary, not so much due to its military might but due to the increasing degree of madness in Brussels. Turkey, a key member of NATO, occupies a very specific position in the framework of the Ukrainian conflict, which people dub “sitting on two chairs at once.” Turkey is already asking to join BRICS+, striving, according to the established tradition, to make a timely transition to the winning side.
At the same time, Britain’s mighty army has diminished in size to Napoleonic era numbers. London is ready to oppose Russia with a whole 40 tanks in working order and, at best, 15 large ships – that is if they don’t malfunction en route and Britain is able to staff them. Germany’s large-scale industry, including its military industry, is undermined by the lack of cheap raw materials from Russia, which has formed the basis of the German economic wonder since the 1970s.
Is there any point in mentioning the real potential of the dwarf European states? I believe it’s already clear. Russian factories are expected to manufacture around 4.5 million shells this year. I’ll boldly suggest this is a tad bit more than Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia combined. The same can be said about the quality of armaments, which in real conditions, not lab conditions, more often turn out to be more practical and reliable than their Western counterparts. And, as the last line of defense, there’s the nuclear triad – which, if anyone’s forgotten, is guaranteed to destroy the U.S. and reduce its European satellites to dust.
We have to admit that the project of a prosperous and united Europe under the reliable American security umbrella was an impressive achievement by the West during the 20th century. The problem is, the further we get into the new century, the more that achievement looks like a relic from the distant past. By the middle of the century, Europe will erode to the point that its prosperity will be nothing but a vague memory. The American security umbrella is also a questionable matter. If Washington, in its struggle against Russia, sacrifices Kyiv without batting an eye, who’s to say that tomorrow it would be concerned with the fate of Berlin and Paris?
Basically, this is the main danger the West poses to Russia today. In an honest competition, it loses in the near future to the countries it itself condescendingly dubbed developing some time ago. So, Washington, London, and Brussels see their near only chance to retain their place in the sun in the deliberate escalation of conflict against key centers of attraction in the multipolar world. Time is against the West, and it’s in a rush to prevent or slow down the dissolution of the rule-based order with what power it retains.
And here we have the paradox for today. The weaker and more incompetent the Euro-Atlantic alliance is, the more aggressive the collective West becomes. The worse the situation is on the Ukrainian testing ground, the more war-like the rhetoric is in the Euro-Atlantic capitals. In reality, however, the modern West turned out to have no clothes when it comes to socioeconomic dynamics and its ability to adapt to the shifting international environment. But make no mistake: the Euro-Atlantists have yet to go all in just to cover their shame.
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