Could Taylor Swift Influence the US Presidential Election?

Taylor Swift is a musical sensation whose influence extends beyond the pop scene. The American singer has shown that she can also take political stands, and many of her young fans tend to follow her. The question is whether Swift will support anyone in the upcoming presidential election.

Taylor Swift’s concerts register on the seismic scale and generate enormous revenue for both the U.S. economy and concert venues overseas. She was Time Magazine’s 2023 Person of the Year. She has 14 Grammy awards and hundreds of millions of fans. Today, however, all eyes are on the Tennessee pop star for different reasons.

During the Republican and Democratic primaries, Swift sent a clear message to her fans: “It’s time to use your voice.” But Swift did not endorse a candidate. The question is whether she’ll support a candidate before the general election.

The battle between incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, will take place this fall.

Both campaigns have an opinion about Swift. Experts close to the Republican Party, Donald Trump and Fox News insist that the singer should not involve herself in politics. The New York Times had a different assessment – calling Swift the “biggest and most influential endorsement target” for team Biden.

Can Swift really influence the outcome of this election?

Swift’s Influence

Swift urged her fans to register to vote as early as September 2023. A few hours later the website, vote.org, the biggest nonprofit, politically independent tech platform for voter registration – recorded 35,000 new voter registrations, significantly higher than applications in previous years. It is unclear how many registered after hearing Swift’s message, but it is clear that a significant number of these applications were submitted by young voters.

Republican voters are less likely to be Swift fans. According to a Morning Consult poll in March 2023, only 23% of Swift’s fan base is comprised of Republicans, while 55% are Democrats. The poll was published before Swift’s Eras tour – one of the biggest musical events ever. Swift’s fan base is huge – 53% of Americans identify as fans, while 16% say they are “die-hard” fans.

An NBC News poll last November rated the singer’s popularity among registered voters. Some 40% held a favorable view of the pop star, 39% were neutral and 16% had a negative opinion about her.

Some 53% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Swift while only 28% of Republicans felt the same way. Republicans held the highest negative opinion of Swift in general while 26% viewed her negatively.

With this poll in mind, as well as a nonrepresentative poll conducted by The Guardian, one could conclude that, should Swift endorse a candidate, she could affect overall voter turnout more than she could change the minds of hard-core Biden or Trump supporters. Yet, in a close election, Swift’s influence on possible voting patterns could turn out to be decisive, The Guardian wrote.

The Guardian quotes a Swift fan saying that if the singer endorsed Biden, she would direct her college fan club to “go vote for Biden because we’re connected to Taylor.” The newspaper reported that most of Swift’s fans are convinced that if Swift endorsed a candidate, it would be the incumbent, and most would approve of such an endorsement, or at least prefer it to the alternative.

The Trump Campaign and Swift

Trump’s supporters promised to wage “holy war” against the singer should she publicly endorse the former president’s opponent. Rolling Stone reported that Trump claimed to be more popular than Swift, and that he has more dedicated fans than she does, according to multiple sources (one of which is close to the former president).

Due to the risk that the singer could pick a candidate, a conspiracy theory has emerged claiming Swift is a part of a covert government effort to reelect Biden. Close to one out of five Americans (18%) believe this theory, according to a February poll conducted by Monmouth University. The conspiracy is popular – 46% have heard of it. Fully 71% of those who believe such a conspiracy exists are Republican or lean-Republican voters, and 83% indicate that they are likely to support Trump this fall.

Close to three-quarters (73%) of those who believe the Swift conspiracy are also convinced that the results of the 2020 election, which Trump lost, were fraudulent.

The singer endorsed Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris back then, both of whom are now running for reelection. “Under their leadership, I believe America has a chance to start the healing process it so desperately needs,” Swift told V Magazine.

Swift and Previous Elections

Swift sent her first political message to fans in 2018, urging them to vote Democratic in the midterm election in her home state of Tennessee. During a midterm, which occurs at the halfway mark of a presidential term, members of Congress are elected.

The singer publicly urged her followers to vote against Tennessee Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn.

“I always have and always will cast my vote based on which candidate will protect and fight for the human rights I believe we all deserve in this country,” the singer wrote on Instagram.

Swift rebuked Blackburn for her votes against both equal pay for women and the Violence against Women Act and for her belief that businesses have the right to refuse gay couples. Blackburn was elected to the U.S. Senate and began her term in 2019.

Swift subsequently released “Only the Young.”

“I wrote it after the midterm elections, when there were so many young people who rallied for their candidate, whether it was a senator or congressman or congresswoman. I was really upset about Tennessee going the way that it did, obviously. And so I just wanted to write a song about it,” Swift told Variety.

Swift later granted permission for the track to be used in the campaign of a congressional candidate from Tennessee.

Throughout the years, the singer has supported human rights and equality issues, including Black Lives Matter, after the massive protests in the United States and abroad that followed the murder of George Floyd.

During the 2022 midterms, Swift, on social media, also urged her fans to vote. “This year, more than any year in modern history, the Midterm Elections will affect our access to fundamental rights, basic reproductive healthcare, and our ability to make our government work for us,” she posted.

Swift’s Eras Tour, which started last year, is on track to become the highest-grossing tour in music history. It is expected to generate $2 billion in revenue by the end of this year, bestowing economic benefits on the United States.

Swift’s concerts have also contributed to the economic growth of the countries where she has performed. Even world leaders, including Chilean President Gabriel Boric, have personally urged Swift to include their country on the Eras Tour.

A single line from the song “You’re on Your Own, Kid”: “[M]ake the friendship bracelets, take the moment and taste it” caused a literal tsunami in the sale of materials to make the bracelets.

Before the June 9 European Union election, European politicians also asked the pop star to urge young Europeans to vote and increase voter participation. She didn’t do so, but the fact she was even asked is a testament to her influence.