Why Russia Needs a Smart US President*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Russia needs stable and normal relations with the U.S. to implement its foreign policy strategy rather than a global war in which would pit it against everyone with the strong likelihood of defeat.

One could ask a very reasonable question: “What benefit does Russia gain from having an intelligent, strong and capable president as the leader of the U.S.?”

The answer is not straightforward because political choices are never black and white.

Indeed, Russia is unlikely to benefit from a strong U.S. president who pursues a strict anti-Russian policy, is influenced by political realism in developing a strategy for shaping the world order, and can effectively manage America’s resources.

But the potential negative repercussions of having an unpredictable and obscure politician lead the world’s most powerful country for an extended period may be even worse — in that scenario, the risks of escalation would be substantially greater.

Therefore, to implement its foreign policy strategy, Russia needs stable and normal relations with the U.S. We don’t need conflict to escalate into a global war which would pit Russia against everyone with a strong likelihood of defeat. Consequently, what Russia needs from America is basic respect and acknowledgment of Russian interests. In order for this to happen, it would be preferable for our main rival (or adversary) to elect a predictable and moderately strong leader rather than someone who is mentally unfit to be president.