American Elections: Has Joe Biden Really Lost Young People?

If the current president has already lost students committed to the left, what worries voters under 30 the most is inflation, specifically, purchasing power and housing. It would be beneficial for him to recall his achievements in this area.

After the 2020 presidential election, a sociological analysis of the vote highlighted that progressive youth had largely supported Joe Biden. The community, activist and civic commitment of younger generations to causes such as feminism, environmentalism, anti-racism and the reduction of socioeconomic inequalities (all of which are obviously linked) was also reflected at the ballot box. It must be said that the four years of Donald Trump had left deep marks.

The memory of Trumpism in power has since faded. It is even foreign to first-time voters, who were young adolescents or even children during Trump’s presidency: Many have a relatively vague idea of what it was like. While two-thirds of people under 30 voted for Biden in 2020, opinion surveys are now showing that just five months before the election, he is on track to lag behind significantly with this population. This does not mean that most young people will vote for Trump: They may be tempted by independent candidates or by abstention. Or they may vote for Biden after all.

While the White House’s management (or at least what is perceived of it) of the war between Israel and Hamas risks costing the outgoing president votes among students on the left, this subject is not what worries those under 30 the most: Like older generations, their top concerns are inflation, in particular purchasing power and housing, but also health (access to insurance when leaving the family home, etc.), and access to rights. In the opinion of political experts working with Democrats, Biden’s team would therefore benefit from adapting its messages by recalling his achievements made in the past four years (preservation and extension of Obamacare, cancellation of nearly $170 billion in student debt, etc.) and by promoting the continuation of this program in the event of reelection.

Talking about “youth” in general, however, does not make much sense. It is necessary to cross-reference age not only with material status but also with level of education, ethnicity and gender. In other words, to fully understand what is happening, intersectional analysis (in which both candidates engage) is essential. Thus, Trump increased his popularity among young men with less education and from Black or Latino minorities. The problem for the former president is that these are not reliable voters, as they are among those who are least likely to vote. And all the more so since the Republicans have, in many areas, made access to the polls more difficult for these populations, which is not without irony. On the other hand, at this stage Biden can be credited with very good scores among white women and men with college degrees of all ages, particularly seniors, and among young women of all ethnicities, all categories in which the proportion of female voters and of likely voters on Nov. 5 is important.

A Gender Gap among Young People

There is, in fact, a significant gender gap in the political choices of younger people: Women lean more and more to the left, while men are more, although less markedly, tempted by conservative ideas. In addition, two-thirds of college graduates are women, and young men who do not plan to go to university are more likely to say they are conservative than those who plan to further their education. The Biden-Harris campaign is also increasing messaging on the defense of abortion, contraception, access to assisted reproduction and, more generally, women’s rights, including on the economic level. Conversely, masculinist norms, verbal violence, and the feeling of economic downgrading, all major markers of Trumpism, keep young women away from voting Republican but attract certain categories of young men.

In order to attract, or regain, Hispanic voters, especially after his policy of combating illegal immigration at the southern border enraged his left wing, Biden has also adopted a vast program granting legal status to spouses and stepchildren of American citizens: the possibility of permanent residence in the United States, obtaining a green card, etc. This is the largest effort in favor of undocumented immigrants since Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program in 2012, which protects undocumented immigrants who arrived in the United States when they were minors by allowing them to study and then work.

Ultimately, saying that “young people” will no longer vote for Biden is a hasty statement. The situation is much more complex and many unknowns, including the level of participation, persist five months before the vote. Clearly, this election is far from being over.