Joe Biden, Juggler of the Middle East

By linking Iran’s expected retaliation against Israel to the outcome of a truce in Gaza, the American president is attempting a tour de force.

Will Joe Biden have the required dexterity? The American president is trying his hand at a complex and perilous juggling act these days. For now, all the balls are in the air. They could fall back down to earth one after another as early as Thursday the the beginning of Gaza cease-fire talk begin in Doha, Qatar. But Biden will still have to be able to pick all the balls up again.

The move is bold, to say the least. By suggesting that a possible breakthrough in the Gaza talks could lead Iran to renounce its retaliatory attacks on Israel, Biden seems to be going for broke. The green juggling balls are being fired. Has Iran received any guarantees? Iran, which presents itself alongside Hamas within the same “axis of resistance,” can hardly set things off on the eve of these negotiations supported by Washington. Hamas itself — the other green ball — partly decapitated by Israeli “targeted assassinations,” has everything to gain from the success of the Doha meetings, especially since it was the Islamist movement that put the latest proposal for discussions on the table. However, its presence in Doha is not guaranteed.

The Blue Ball

But the American president has also captured a blue ball. Everyone knows it, including [Benjamin Netanyahu’s] own defense minister, Yoav Gallant: Netanyahu has been dragging his feet for months in seeking a new truce in Gaza, even if the release of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas depends on it. By emphasizing the fact that peace with Iran (or at least a temporary lull in conflict) would also depend on this agreement, Biden is upping the ante. Already, the Israeli prime minister has declared that he would “personally” be in favor of such an agreement on Gaza. The far-right members of his government are the only ones who still must be convinced.

For good measure, other balls are being thrown into the mix for Biden, the juggler. The yellow ball of Hezbollah, which in Lebanon is also waiting for the best opportunity to carry out its own retaliatory actions after Israel assassinated one of its commanders at the end of July, but is hesitating to put the Gazan truce at risk. And the red ball, again, like the anger of some Arab countries that no longer want to appear as if they are defending Israel against Iran while Palestinians are being killed by the thousands.

Iran at the Center?

Too many balls at once? The United States has conspicuously deployed military reinforcement to the region as if to remind us that this trick has its limits. The irony is that for years, Netanyahu has focused exclusively on Iran, on its nuclear program and on the threat it allegedly presents to Israel as if to make us forget that the Palestinians exist and the persistence of the Israeli occupation. Today, it is therefore this same Iran which, with Biden’s almost devious support, could force Israel to alleviate, a little, the tragic fate of the Palestinians in Gaza.