In an exclusive interview with NBC, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was asked whether he would commit to defending Taiwan if China invaded the island on his watch. “I never say,” was Trump’s response. He also revealed that he had been in touch with mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping, but that he had not sent him a message not to invade Taiwan.
Trump has thus far said nothing to offer the Taiwanese government and people comfort or contentment, neither during his campaign nor since being elected.
During the election, Trump stated in an interview on The Joe Rogan Experience that Taiwan had stolen the U.S. semiconductor business; he went on to say that Taiwan wanted U.S. protection, but that Taiwan had not paid for such protection, arguing how the mob collects protection money. In an earlier exclusive with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump also claimed the U.S. was no different than an insurance company and that it needed to collect premiums from Taiwan.
Trump’s words are making people from all walks of life in Taiwan uneasy, especially since John Bolton, the first Trump administration’s national security advisor, told the BBC he feared for Taiwan should Trump return to the White House — another statement that stirred up a wide sense of foreboding.
Bolton was concerned because he believes Trump is easily manipulated by the leaders of countries like China and Russia and that Trump may even abandon Taiwan. And now, with barely a month to go before Trump returns to the White House, instead of promising to defend Taiwan, Trump is saying that he has a very good relationship with Xi and that the two have continued to communicate since his he won reelection. Many people now don’t know what to think about this.
Nothing Trump has said, either before or since the election, has been friendly to Taiwan, so what is his attitude likely to be, once he officially takes office? And if we were a “normal” country, would it even be normal to be constantly on tenterhooks over Trump’s remarks?
Why does Taiwan need or hope for protection from the U.S.? It is not because the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may cross swords with each other. In reality, it is because the enemy (the Chinese Communist Party) is strong, we are weak, and if hostilities were to erupt across the strait, it would be only natural for Taiwan to hope for, and need, the U.S. — and even Japan — to lend a helping hand. But if the two sides live together peacefully, then why would we need the U.S. to defend us?
Many years ago, the CCP formulated three prerequisites for the use of military force against Taiwan: First, if Taiwan declares independence; second, if there is unrest in Taiwan; and third, if external forces intervene in Taiwan. If none of these three conditions occurs, the CCP has no basis to attack Taiwan. So whether there is an “incident” between the two sides of the strait depends on the wisdom of Taiwan’s leaders. In other words, we should solve the problems between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait by ourselves, rather than look to the U.S. for support.
The cross-strait ceasefire since the CCP stopped its bombardment of Kinmen has held for more than 40 years, and not since the opening of cross-strait exchanges in the later years of former President Chiang Ching-kuo’s term has there been any need to rekindle hostilities between the two sides. During Ma Ying-jeou’s term as president of the Republic of China, the two sides did not just have friendly exchanges; both sides’ leaders held the Ma-Xi meeting of 2015. If peace can be maintained on both sides of strait, where is the harm in Trump not promising to defend Taiwan?
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