Preparing for the Transactions Trump Will Make

Donald Trump hasn’t taken office yet, but he is already acting like the world’s boss. He has asserted that the U.S. should regain control of the Panama Canal, which was returned to Panama under President Jimmy Carter by way of treaty. In short, Trump is a shark who takes things by force. Anything he likes that will benefit the U.S. he takes.

Moreover, he reiterated that the U.S. should buy Greenland, a Danish territory, because it involves the Arctic. The U.S. has an air base in Greenland, and Greenland is rich in mineral resources. Trump claimed that “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America … ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.” He is not just a U.S. president, but more like the leader of the world.

Trump’s plan is to use his strength and negotiation skills as America’s boss to regain control of key strategic resources at the cheapest price. If there is money to be spent, he’ll do his best to make someone else pay. As for Taiwan, Trump knows that the real value lies not in the first island chain, but rather in semiconductors. Even if the U.S. gives Intel more subsidies, America cannot regain its place as a global leader through strength. In the future, it may need to revive its semiconductor industry by making deals.

How should we fight back If one day Trump announces that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company belongs to the U.S.? A claim like that is not unfounded; most of TSMC’s investors are in the U.S., as are its main clients. Although the manufacturing is done in Taiwan, it is slowly going global. Newly nominated Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby has said numerous times that if China takes control of Taiwan, TSMC must first be destroyed. However, if TSMC is an American company, the Chinese Communist Party might fear the consequences of taking it over.

Not only are foreigners in awe of Trump, so are American entrepreneurs. Tech leaders, including those from Meta, Apple, SoftBank and TikTok, recently visited Trump in Florida bearing gifts. It’s just like when the emperor required every region to pay tribute to Beijing. Think it’s funny? The tech bosses think it’s worth it!

The structure of Trump’s way of making deals in the future is clear: He wants to make America great again and end global wars, and he has to rely on China’s help to do that. Xi Jinping is, of course, willing to help on the condition that Taiwan is traded to China. The status quo in Taiwan may change in the future. While the U.S. does not agree with the peaceful reunification of both sides of the strait, it will certainly not go to war over Taiwan. Wang Jin-pyng, the former president of the Legislative Yuan, proposed that the “authority of each side of the strait is not subordinate to the other, and sovereignty is not distinguished,” something that might present an option.

Even though the U.S. will not send troops to Taiwan’s aid, it will require Taiwan to increase its national defense budget and make large arms purchases. The purpose of this is to balance the trade deficit, not to defend democracy. Instead of trying to predict what actions Trump will take, it might do better to study what Xi will do. Negotiating is a kind of game, and you can counter every move.

Taiwan’s greatest bargaining chip is semiconductors and its strength in AI. China’s bargaining chip is its deep relationship with countries around the world, especially in the Global South. The U.S. relies on hegemony, and even though its strength is waning, it still has the power to lead transactions. Everyone holds the same deck of cards: the U.S., China and Taiwan all want to avoid military conflict. Future wars will involve technology and trade.

China’s technological strength is growing. Even Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo has admitted that trying to delay China’s development is pointless. China has already created a comprehensive technological and trade ecosystem that includes electric vehicles and green energy. This is the real battlefield. In the future, both sides of the strait will not seek “military reunification” and will not be willing to “peacefully reunify.” Instead, they will likely experience “forced reunification” due to circumstances that are stronger than the people on either side. China can integrate into the global industrial ecosystem merely by relying on supply chain and carbon emission standards.

Arguing about a war in the Taiwan Strait is meaningless. Instead of conducting military simulations, it would be better to simulate offense and defense in mergers and acquisitions. The negotiation table is the battlefield. Taiwan should no longer dream of relying on the U.S. to maintain the status quo; instead, it should actively consider where it can and cannot yield. The sooner and more proactively it talks about this, the more control it will have over its own fate. If the law governing allocation of government revenues and expenditures is too much for Taiwan, how can it handle the demand to raise the national defense budget?

The lesson we can learn from South Korea’s martial law incident is that the people are really in charge. Politics may be zealous at times, but not at the expense of peace and democracy.

The U.S. has Trump, and Asia will have the next Yoon Suk Yeol who will put personal interest and power above the welfare of the people. Danger lurks all over the world this year, and dark clouds are gathering. If we take one wrong step, we will be crushed!

The author is the founding chairman of the Taiwan Mergers & Acquisitions and Private Equity Council and founder of the Southeast-Asia Impact Alliance.