Trump Inauguration Will Mark Shift in Balance of Power*

Even if European politicians have recently just disparaged Donald Trump, political common sense dictates that they be as close to the new U.S. administration as possible — especially at a perilous time for the West.

Media and politics often follow simple rules, betting on those in power at a given moment. So when a popular Washington Post cartoonist recently submitted a caricature of U.S. tech and media moguls on a pilgrimage to pay tribute to a giant statue of President-elect Donald Trump, the newspaper refused to publish it. Unfortunately, one of the pilgrims was recognizable as the newspaper’s owner. And now, even Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has joined the pilgrimage.

Trump’s Inauguration Comes at a Perilous Time for the West

Likewise, in international politics, European leaders have begun to outdo each other in showing their relationship with the newly reelected U.S. president. Regardless of whether they have recently just disparaged him, today’s political common sense dictates that they should be as close as possible to the new administration of the world’s superpower, especially at an extremely dangerous time for Europe and the West.

Therefore, Trump’s inauguration will be something of a great international spectacle and provide a view of the emerging new alliance within the trans-Atlantic community. Even rep EU officials, such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and German government officials are uninterested in escalating old disputes with Trump. And if they are looking for a confrontation with him, it could be said they are doing it on the sidelines, waging legal and political battles against Elon Musk. They want to be present in the new system of forces.

Trump’s 2nd Term May Be Fundamentally Different

Trump himself is also behaving differently than he did eight years ago, skillfully building an atmosphere of uncertainty and surprise in relations with Europe. EU attitudes with respect to Trump are more diverse and not unequivocally hostile. For example, German politics, also openly at odds with Trump under Chancellor Angela Merkel, is now beginning to look to Friedrich Merz, likely to be the new chancellor, for better cooperation with the new U.S. administration. This is especially true since Trump’s second term may be very different from the first.

So it is hardly surprising that everyone is making a pilgrimage to a stronger power. Common sense therefore suggests that Poland should not let others put it into a corner where there is no good ground for maneuvering its own policy with the hegemon.

*Editor’s note: The original Polish language version of this article is available with a paid subscription.