Watch Out for Trumpism 2.0’s Impact on the Global Order and US-China Relations

The curtains have closed on the United States presidential election, and Donald Trump is back again. How will Trump 2.0 compare to Trump 1.0? What changes will he bring to the U.S. and the world? What does Trump 2.0’s likely policy logic look like for the U.S. over the next four years?

This election showed us that the underlying issue in the U.S. is the struggle between the “two Americas.” The backdrop is no longer just a bipartisan divide between liberalism and conservatism. Whether that refers to the Democratic Party as represented by Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, or the Trump-JD Vance Republican Party, it represents the irreconcilable and irreversible political, economic and social rifts in the U.S. The racial and religious diversity of American society has been adding new dimensions of cultural and ethnic struggle to political party conflicts since the 1970s. The struggle between the two parties has gradually shifted — from one that first involved the distribution of interests to what has become a struggle for the right to speak about the level of morality, race and identity — so much so that, by 2020, the voters of both parties viewed each other with hostility, bordering on mutual hatred. In addition, the diversification of information platforms and the decline of traditional media have gradually led to differences among the American people in terms of how they view facts and make basic value judgements. This, too, is propelling the U.S. toward becoming a consensus-free society.

Secondly, that Trumpism exists means the world is still in the grip of strong populist sentiment. Trump’s 2016 election coincided with domestic economic crises and sharp social contradictions in the U.S. and the rest of the West, where the “New Right” movement and populism emerged with a vengeance in most Western countries. In “What is Populism?”, Jan-Werner Müller, a professor of political science at Princeton University, stresses that what sets populists apart is their claim “to speak exclusively for the ‘silent majority’ or the ‘real people,’” and people regard Trump as one of the most prominent populists of our time. Where voters and the elite from both parties lack consensus because they are polarized and fundamentally opposed to each other, it is almost impossible for American politics to function normally. The resulting political stalemate and government inefficiency have led to lasting, unresolved social problems, social anomie and a loss of confidence in the government and the system, all of which in turn have given rise to pronounced anti-establishment and populist sentiment.

An Ipsos survey this year showed that 69% of Americans believe “the political and economic elite don’t care about hardworking people,” and that 63% of Americans agree that “Experts in this country don’t understand the lives of people like me.” This is why Trump has remained a popular figure among U.S. presidents to this day: Many Americans still believe that establishment politicians and large Wall Street institutions are the chief culprits behind many of America’s current economic and social woes. So, in response, they are eagerly hoping for a new leader to bring about change. Trump has successfully exploited the working and middle classes’ intense anxiety and resentment in recent years over progressive social change, demographic change caused by immigration and economic and livelihood issues; he has simply and crudely connected the complex racial and class conflicts within American society to issues such as illegal immigration, Black crime and China.

Third, Trumpism is gradually evolving and insinuating itself further into the Republican Party. When Mike Pence became vice president in 2016, it signaled that the oil magnate Koch brothers and the Republican Party’s top brass had fully joined forces with Trump. In his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump represented the interests of the Republican Party’s far-right conservative political forces, the general public as represented by industrial workers, and of course, the military, oil and financial consortia. Trumpism of today is actually a mixture of populism, economic nationalism, white supremacy and hegemonic internationalism. It is not opposed to radicalism when it comes to immigration and restrictions on minority groups; it does not support too much U.S. involvement overseas — especially not in continental Europe or in the Middle East; and it rejects Washington’s unconditional support for Ukraine, viewing the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a European problem that has no direct bearing on Washington’s interests. In addition, Trumpism wants to stop participating in global governance through multilateralism; it is not against imposing restrictive measures on global trade to protect the U.S. domestic market; and it takes a hard-line position of suppressing and containing China.

Finally, the election marked several major breakthroughs for Trump. First, Trump was able to capitalize on the July 13 assassination attempt. The incident and Trump’s response at the scene greatly united Republican voters and had a marked “canvassing” effect on independent voters. The “persecuted yet unbowed” self-image of that Trump sought to cultivate reached new heights, thanks to the photo in which Trump brandished his fist, accompanied by well-known conservative commentator Matt Walsh’s caption, “Impeached. Arrested. Convicted. Shot. Still standing.” The assassination attempt was a boon to Trump’s election prospects and became campaign capital as his approval ratings rising from 44% in February to 48% after the shooting. At the same time, the incident stymied the Democratic Party’s campaign offensive, obligating them to temporarily remain on the defensive before the public out of a humane sense respect and to avoid handing the Republican Party a talking point.

Trump’s second breakthrough this election season came from the support of Silicon Valley’s high-tech industry in a shift that stemmed from Silicon Valley’s bet that Trump would be more open in terms of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence policy. Influential venture capitalists and tech leaders, including former Democratic Party fundraiser Allison Huynh, investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and the Winklevoss brothers from the cryptocurrency world, have all publicly expressed their support for Trump. Trump has publicly called for “[ensuring] every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and to transact free from Government Surveillance and Control,” and promised to loosen regulation on cryptocurrency. In addition, many Silicon Valley businessmen and entrepreneurs have welcomed his support for reducing income taxes at home and raising tariffs abroad.

When Trump announced his victory in Florida, he also praised Elon Musk in his speech, saying, “We have a new star. A star is born: Elon.” Unlike the business elite who are usually accustomed to exerting influence behind the scenes, Musk deployed his “dollar power” in a high-profile way, employing his own think tank to help Trump’s campaign. There are currently many different interpretations as to why he should have done this (there are those who think Musk loathes “woke culture” because of his children, for example), but Musk is essentially a businessman. He needs to become a more “liberal” entrepreneur and to hope that the new administration can drastically adjust government institutions and weaken the regulation and policy that the liberal establishment uses to control businesses.

The author is a Presidential Chair Professor at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. This article was reprinted with permission from the Global China think tank.