Trump’s Showdown with Chinese Hydra Will Not Be Easy*

China’s groundbreaking artificial intelligence tool, DeepSeek, shows that U.S. sanctions on the country are overdue and have limited effect. This is very bad news for Donald Trump.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself, but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle” — this is one of the thoughts of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese thinker and commander, author of “The Art of War.”

Americans may know themselves, but they have no understanding of China whatsoever. Beijing currently has a huge capacity to support companies and technological initiatives. And it makes use of it — for example, in the production of electric cars, smartphones, and 5G equipment. Now, artificial intelligence has been added to the mix as well. The U.S. problem is that China, once a producer of simple goods and an unashamed copier of more sophisticated ones (according to an old saying —imitation is the highest form of flattery), has rapidly transformed into a manufacturer and exporter of advanced technologies.

Americans Helped Create China’s Technological Power

Meanwhile, for years Americans remained ignorant and naive. They had the capability to slow down China’s development some 20–30 years ago by, for example, blocking its entry into the World Trade Organization and setting tough conditions, but just like the entire West they deluded themselves that China’s enrichment would bring democracy. The vision of expansion in this gigantic market clouded America’s rational judgment. In the end, it was China that set out on an incredible expansion.

Its main tool is now technology, and that, in combination with the ability to produce goods cheaply, has become a flywheel. The DeepSeek bot that made headlines Monday when it sank buoyant and fat big techs on the stock exchange is much cheaper (and open source), but no worse than the leading ChatGPT solution. It has demonstrated that Chinese companies can establish an effective fight against the tycoons of the West, taking shortcuts and without access to the most advanced chips. Unless the Chinese aren’t that brilliant after all, and they’ve just quietly adopted Nvidia’s new, sanctioned processors, which would be even worse news for the U.S. — because it would be proof that the Chinese can easily circumvent trade restrictions, much more easily than Russia or Iran.

Will Donald Trump Block DeepSeek?

Will the Americans declare DeepSeek a security threat and try to block it? It’s more than certain. This is even more justified because Beijing-censored DeepSeek will not answer difficult questions about Tiananmen, Tibet or Uighurs, and will not have much to do with freedom of speech. But the example of TikTok shows that the fight against modern and popular solutions can easily turn into a farce. Other TikTok-like Chinese apps have already appeared on the market and are growing in popularity in the U.S. Even if Trump cuts off one Hydra’s head, several more will grow in its place. The same will happen with DeepSeek.

*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.