Trump’s Plan Likely To Cause Chain of Surprising and Damaging Reactions
Published in Makor Rishon
(Israel) on 9 February 2025
by Yair Sheleg (link to original)
It is good that Trump is taking the lead, so it will be identified with him while we work cautiously from behind the scenes — then if the plan explodes, the shrapnel will fly mainly toward the United States.
The Israeli right wing’s messianic welcome this week for Donald Trump’s announcement is absolutely understandable. There has never been an international leader who spoke in a way that embodies the dreams that most Israelis do not dare to express openly: a sweeping solution to the Gaza threat against Israel that has existed since 1948 by removing its residents and giving the United States, a friend of Israel, control over the territory.
It’s impossible to deny that there are ethical problems with this solution, but they are dwarfed by the ethical problem that was Gaza itself for Israelis and Gazans together. Since the Palestinian refugees from southern Israel flowed into it, the Gaza Strip has become a human powder keg. Even without the hostility toward Israel, it was a human hell. Almost 2 million people live in a 140-square mile space with Arab states and the Palestinians themselves refusing to allow the refugees to recover, pursue the dream of the “right of return,” and act against Israel. This is an unbearable situation primarily for the residents themselves. Even during the years of Egyptian rule in Gaza, the rulers could not rest; it was no accident that Egypt refrained from placing Gaza under its control in the peace agreement after Israel’s disengagement from the Strip.
Even if Trump’s initiative is not rejected, it would pay to restrain a bit from celebrating. First of all, because we know that Trump tends to shoot from the hip without always hitting the target, but primarily because he swings back and forth. The more revolutionary and dramatic the process is, the more revolutionary and dramatic the response. We saw this play out first hand with the launch of the legal revolution and we are likely to experience this globally and much more strongly with the launch of the Trump revolution.
The shock waves will likely come from several sources, the most prominent being the Middle East. Trump’s return to power is stirring hopes that the moderate Sunni states will strengthen their alliance with Israel against the Iranian threat, which also frightens them. However, these states will not be able to ignore the expulsion of some 2 million Palestinians from Gaza, regardless of public opinion. This kind of step could affect their willingness to cooperate with Israel and Trump.
European states also have reservations about Trump and his policies and could choose to take revenge by acting against Israel. The Democratic Party in the United States, which could return to power in four years, will likely grow more radical with anti-Israel tendencies running within the party.
More than 100 years ago, we referred to the Balfour Declaration as the new Cyrus the Great declaration of human rights, which would solve all our problems. Reality taught us there are other forces in the region. The British took them into account. The Zionist dream was postponed 30 years, and we had to fight Britain to gain a promised national home.
Therefore, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did well to act with relative restraint to the modern “Cyrus declaration,” and right wing leaders made a mistake by reacting otherwise. It is good that Trump is taking the lead, so it will be identified with him while we work cautiously from behind the scenes – then if the plan explodes, the shrapnel will fly mainly toward the United States. It is important to prepare an alternate plan in which “we will agree” to withdraw from the process in exchange for other benefits.
The American plan is important mainly because of the direction it takes, more than what it says. It is important as an initiative that shakes up established thinking about a two-state solution. It signals to Israel’s enemies the strength of American support for us and the power of threat against whomever dares to attack Israel with the horrible brutality of Oct. 7. However, we should not raise it to a new level of expectation such that any lesser outcome would be a resounding failure.
Truthfully, the most important news this week was President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. was tightening sanctions on Iran. For almost half a century, the Ayatollahs’ regime has been the most dangerous element in the Middle East and one of the most dangerous threats to world peace. Israel should focus on convincing Trump to pressure other Western countries, the way he does, to impose powerful sanctions on Iran to bring about the Iranian regime’s collapse as soon as possible. If this happens, the problem embodied by Palestinians in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza will be much less dramatic.
The Israeli right wing’s messianic welcome this week for Donald Trump’s announcement is absolutely understandable. There has never been an international leader who spoke in a way that embodies the dreams that most Israelis do not dare to express openly: a sweeping solution to the Gaza threat against Israel that has existed since 1948 by removing its residents and giving the United States, a friend of Israel, control over the territory.
It’s impossible to deny that there are ethical problems with this solution, but they are dwarfed by the ethical problem that was Gaza itself for Israelis and Gazans together. Since the Palestinian refugees from southern Israel flowed into it, the Gaza Strip has become a human powder keg. Even without the hostility toward Israel, it was a human hell. Almost 2 million people live in a 140-square mile space with Arab states and the Palestinians themselves refusing to allow the refugees to recover, pursue the dream of the “right of return,” and act against Israel. This is an unbearable situation primarily for the residents themselves. Even during the years of Egyptian rule in Gaza, the rulers could not rest; it was no accident that Egypt refrained from placing Gaza under its control in the peace agreement after Israel’s disengagement from the Strip.
Even if Trump’s initiative is not rejected, it would pay to restrain a bit from celebrating. First of all, because we know that Trump tends to shoot from the hip without always hitting the target, but primarily because he swings back and forth. The more revolutionary and dramatic the process is, the more revolutionary and dramatic the response. We saw this play out first hand with the launch of the legal revolution and we are likely to experience this globally and much more strongly with the launch of the Trump revolution.
The shock waves will likely come from several sources, the most prominent being the Middle East. Trump’s return to power is stirring hopes that the moderate Sunni states will strengthen their alliance with Israel against the Iranian threat, which also frightens them. However, these states will not be able to ignore the expulsion of some 2 million Palestinians from Gaza, regardless of public opinion. This kind of step could affect their willingness to cooperate with Israel and Trump.
European states also have reservations about Trump and his policies and could choose to take revenge by acting against Israel. The Democratic Party in the United States, which could return to power in four years, will likely grow more radical with anti-Israel tendencies running within the party.
More than 100 years ago, we referred to the Balfour Declaration as the new Cyrus the Great declaration of human rights, which would solve all our problems. Reality taught us there are other forces in the region. The British took them into account. The Zionist dream was postponed 30 years, and we had to fight Britain to gain a promised national home.
Therefore, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did well to act with relative restraint to the modern “Cyrus declaration,” and right wing leaders made a mistake by reacting otherwise. It is good that Trump is taking the lead, so it will be identified with him while we work cautiously from behind the scenes – then if the plan explodes, the shrapnel will fly mainly toward the United States. It is important to prepare an alternate plan in which “we will agree” to withdraw from the process in exchange for other benefits.
The American plan is important mainly because of the direction it takes, more than what it says. It is important as an initiative that shakes up established thinking about a two-state solution. It signals to Israel’s enemies the strength of American support for us and the power of threat against whomever dares to attack Israel with the horrible brutality of Oct. 7. However, we should not raise it to a new level of expectation such that any lesser outcome would be a resounding failure.
Truthfully, the most important news this week was President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. was tightening sanctions on Iran. For almost half a century, the Ayatollahs’ regime has been the most dangerous element in the Middle East and one of the most dangerous threats to world peace. Israel should focus on convincing Trump to pressure other Western countries, the way he does, to impose powerful sanctions on Iran to bring about the Iranian regime’s collapse as soon as possible. If this happens, the problem embodied by Palestinians in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza will be much less dramatic.
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