Partial Cease-fire: Avoid Putin’s Pace

Published in Sankei Shimbun
(Japan) on 21 March 2025
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
President Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on March,18, and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on March 19.

In a U.S.-Russia summit meeting, Putin rejected a proposal for an immediate, complete 30-day cease-fire that the U.S. and Ukraine had previously agreed upon. According to the Russian president’s office, Putin agreed to Trump's proposal of a 30-day suspension of attacks on energy-related facilities.

In a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump, the leaders announced an agreement to cease attacks on energy infrastructure. Trump posted on social media that he would be “working quickly to have a[n]..end” to the war.” Zelenskyy said he hoped that “under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year.”

However, Putin's rejection of a total cease-fire is extremely unsatisfactory. It is Trump's responsibility to make sure that this partial cease-fire agreement is a definite first step toward a justly won, permanent peace.

Within a few days, delegations from the U.S. and Ukraine will attend a conference in Saudi Arabia and discuss plans for a cease-fire in the Black Sea. On March 23, the U.S. and Russia will commence high-level talks, but negotiations are expected to be difficult. Trump should not be in such a hurry to implement an early stage cease-fire that such that he becomes a yes man for the invader Putin.

Disagreements between the involved parties over which targets to include in the cease-fire have surfaced. The U.S. and Ukraine insist that the cease-fire includes energy facilities and civilian infrastructure, while in contrast, Russia asserts it only includes energy facilities.

The Russian military continues to strike hospitals and other civilian facilities in Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine would be blocked from counterattacking oil-related facilities in Russia, a tactic that has harried Russia.

Therefore, this agreement is significantly more beneficial to Russia. While Trump saves face through the cease-fire on energy infrastructure, Putin is not giving up the invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian military will likely rush to completely reclaim Kursk Oblast in western Russia, which the Ukrainian military has been partially occupying as a bargaining chip. Russia will likely also launch an offensive against eastern Ukraine.

However economically feasible it is to continue the war, Russia is in a trickier situation than outward appearances would indicate. If Trump wants to achieve a peace that the international community recognizes, he must also use pressure in his negotiations with Russia.


<主張>部分的攻撃停止 プーチンペースは避けよ

トランプ米大統領が18日にプーチン露大統領と、19日にウクライナのゼレンスキー大統領と電話会談した。

米露首脳会談では、先に米国とウクライナが合意した30日間の全面的な即時停戦案について、プーチン氏は拒否した。露大統領府によると、トランプ氏はエネルギー関連施設への攻撃を30日間停止するよう提案し、プーチン氏は受け入れた。

ゼレンスキー氏もトランプ氏との会談で、エネルギー施設への攻撃停止に同意すると表明した。トランプ氏は戦争終結への動きが「本格化した」とSNSに投稿した。ゼレンスキー氏は「米国の指導力の下で、年内に恒久的な和平の実現が可能だ」と期待を示した。

だが、プーチン氏が全面停戦案を蹴ったのは極めて遺憾だ。トランプ氏には、部分的停戦となりうる今回の合意を、公正かつ永続的な平和への確かな第一歩とする責任がある。

米とウクライナの代表団は数日以内にサウジアラビアで会談し、黒海上での停戦案なども協議する。米露も23日に高官協議を開くが、交渉は困難が予想される。トランプ氏は、公約である早期停戦の実現を急ぐあまり、侵略者プーチン氏の言いなりとなってはならない。

今回の合意で、攻撃停止対象を巡る当事者間の食い違いが表面化した。米国とウクライナは、エネルギー施設と民間インフラが対象になると主張しているのに対し、ロシアはエネルギー施設のみと唱えている。

ロシア軍は、ウクライナの病院など民間施設への攻撃を続けている。一方でウクライナは、ロシアを悩ませた露領内の石油関連施設への反撃手段を封じられる。

それゆえ、今回の合意はロシアの方に利が大きいといえる。プーチン氏は、エネルギー施設への攻撃停止でトランプ氏の顔を立てつつも、ウクライナ侵略をあきらめていない。

ロシア軍は、ウクライナ軍が交渉カードとするため一部を占領してきた露西部クルスク州の完全奪還を急ぎ、ウクライナ東部でも攻勢をかけるだろう。

ただし、ロシアは経済的にも継戦能力の点でも、見かけよりも厳しい状況にある。トランプ氏が国際的に評価される和平を実現したいなら、対露交渉で圧力を用いることも必要だ。
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