Trump and the Tariff Question

China is trying to glean political capital from the American president’s tariff policies. The success of its efforts depends on whether Trump recognizes the costs of his plans.

Of course, China is trying to glean political capital from the American president’s tariff policies. But to do that, one has to first understand what Donald Trump is actually planning, because so far, his actions have seemed contradictory. On the one hand, he wants to decrease the United States’ international obligations to avoid overextending the country’s power. That is an insight gained from the decline of great powers, just as Paul Kennedy laid out decades ago. On the other hand, Trump seems to believe that he can bend all powers of the world to his will with tariffs, an economic and political instrument that had its heyday in the 19th century.

If free trade benefits everyone, trade restrictions like tariffs will hurt everyone. The more wildly Trump wields the sword of tariffs, the greater the damage will be to the United States. Trump likely does not care much about the meeting with China — but he probably does care about measurable damage from his policies at home.