A Third Bush as U.S. President?

On December 3rd, after Florida Republican Senator Mel Martinez announced that he will not seek another term, an aid revealed that Jeb Bush, President Bush’s younger brother, is considering running for Senate in 2010. Republican Party members welcomed this announcement, but Democrats were not as enthusiastic. What really interests analysts is the possibility of Jeb becoming the third president in the Bush family.

Aid: Jeb is Considering Running for Senate

According to British media reports, Florida Republican Senator Mel Martinez announced on December 2nd that he will not seek a second term as senator because he “wants to spend more time with family and friends.” Martinez, who is believed to have close ties with current President Bush, served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development during Bush’s first presidential term. In 2004, Martinez was elected senator by a slight margin.

Just after Martinez announced that he would “vacate the position,” Jeb Bush’s spokeswoman Kristy Campbell revealed on the 3rd that the former Florida governor is considering campaigning for Senate in 2010. Campbell stated, “Jeb Bush has not ruled out running. He does intend to give it thoughtful consideration in the coming weeks and months.”She also added that Jeb is 'weighing a variety of factors', predicting that he would not make a decision as to whether he would run for senate before the year’s end. She refused to elaborate on what those factors are.

Jeb Bush is 55 years old, and is the second oldest child in his family. Right after graduating from the University of Texas, Jeb started work at the Venezuela branch of Texas Commerce Bank. His style is unlike the cowboy style of his older brother; Jeb has always been a “good kid” with a steady personality. His father has always been interested in cultivating Jeb’s political experience. In the 1980s, when President Bush senior partnered with Reagan to run for president, Jeb was a main force on his father’s campaign team. In 1998, Jeb was elected governor of Florida by a wide margin, and in 2002, he was reelected, becoming the first Republican to serve two terms as governor of that state. In office, Jeb vigorously developed education and pushed for “Open Office Hours” and other measures. His calm and decisive way of handling hurricanes and other natural disasters really gained favor with voters.

Republican Party: The Older Brother is the Older Brother. The Younger Brother is the Younger Brother.

US media reports state that even though his older brother has “dragged” the approval rating down to an all-time low, Jeb Bush is still popular with the Republican Party. Florida Republicans showed high approval and excitement on the possibility of Jeb running for Senate—even other potential candidates expressed those sentiments. Analysts point out that Republicans believe that the best way to put the power into the hands of the Republican Party is to let someone with the “Bush” name campaign for the 2010 Florida Senate seat.

Reports show that Republicans believe that the low approval rating of incumbent President Bush will not influence Jeb. In the latest Gallup poll, close to 2/3 of respondents did not approve of President Bush’s job as president. Yet, in distinct contrast to his older brother, Jeb finished his two terms as Florida governor with very high approval ratings.

At the same time, Republicans also agree that there will be a “backlash” from Bush, but it would be only short-term. An associate close to Jeb commented, “My guess is that if you took a poll now, there might still be some residual effects (coming from his brother). His overall approval rating might not be as high as it was two years ago, but it will still be relatively high because Jeb is Jeb—just the same as before. When he comes back again, won’t people know who Jeb is? Who Bush is? I think he does a great job.”

Analysis shows that the “optimistic attitude” of Republicans is because they continue to firmly believe that voters are able to distinguish very well between the Bush brothers. The most well-known difference lies in their abilities to handle natural disasters. The Bush administration had its fill of criticism during Hurricane Katrina, but Jeb’s outstanding management of hurricanes and other natural disasters has been widely acclaimed.

A Third President Bush?

Political analysts observe that Jeb’s comeback is possibly in preparation for a presidential campaign. Even just after President Bush was re-elected, US media made public news that Jeb would run in the 2008 presidential election.

In a 2006 interview with a Florida reporter, Bush stated, “I hope to see Jeb be able to participate in a presidential campaign sometime in the future. I don’t know if this is his plan but I believe Jeb would be a great president.” Bush also revealed that he has asked his younger brother Jeb to seriously consider running for president. Furthermore, President Bush senior also expressed his desire for Jeb to participate in a presidential campaign. In a 2005 CNN interview, the former president remarked that he hopes Jeb will be able to participate in a campaign someday and that he believes Jeb would do really well in the presidential position.

Though Jeb denied at the time that he would participate in the 2008 presidential election, he has never negated the possibility of running in a presidential campaign. Florida politicians and Bush family friends believed that Jeb’s announcement could only be understood as meaning Jeb would not run for the 2008 election, but, it did not rule out Jeb campaigning in the future.

Analysts point out that if Jeb decides to participate in a future presidential campaign, he would have many favorable conditions. First, he has the “innate advantage,” the “Bush” name is undoubtedly a “gold card”; that two Bush family members have held the celebrated position of presidents has garnered enormous political resources for the Bush family. Secondly, his great political achievements as Florida governor, especially his outstanding performance in handling many serious problems such as hurricanes and immigration issues, have set the foundation for him to compete for the White House.

Notwithstanding, there are also those who predict that Jeb’s road to the White House will not be a smooth one. The “thorny” political heritage his older brother President Bush has left him will be a severe test for Jeb.