Seeing How Obama Cannot Change, We Know How Difficult It Will Be for China

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 22 January 2013
by Gao Wang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mollie Gossage. Edited by Kathleen Weinberger.
On Monday, U.S. President Obama formally began another four-year term. His country is currently suffering from economic weakness and political division; as the re-elected president, he most clearly illustrates how difficult change is for the world’s largest economic system.

It was through his cries for “change” that Obama first entered the White House four years ago — but he doesn’t shout that slogan anymore. From the perspective of change, he has basically turned in a blank sheet for these past four years. Wall Street remains unchanged. Health care reform, the only presentable item, to this day hangs unresolved in midair, essentially unmovable.

America is the world’s super-large management system. It’s powerful, so its advantage in global influence is naturally greater; the choices it confronts will also be more plentiful. American society is smaller than Chinese society as a whole, but America’s internal contradictions are realized and dispersed more fully, completely imbuing the capabilities of the American system, gradually making it clumsy and inflexible. Over the past four years, the deepest impressions that people have had of Obama have been of his demeanor and a handful of sayings. However, it seems that it will be very difficult to leave anything brilliant behind for history.

It’s not that Obama is stupid, but that America as a country is increasingly burdened with difficulties. The forces holding Obama back are in fact too many; over the last decade, America’s domestic divisions and differences have become more and more serious.

America is at the peak of social development. Although it has muddled through four years of the most important capital, once wiled away, the cost is nothing more than a feeling of crisis upon seeing emerging countries develop at a faster rate. If the leadership of China — a large developing country — were to follow the methods of American government, things would probably be impossibly convoluted.

China likewise is a super-huge management system; while China’s power is not at the level of America’s — China has not gone all around the world making trouble — China’s interior today is experiencing an all-out period of conflict. America simply cannot compare to China when it comes to the total amount of social conflict. Buried or half-buried past conflicts are now gradually starting to emerge, in a similar was as they have in American society. For a long time now, China has not been able to implement policy in socially peripheral countries simply upon the government’s call.

China’s domestic complexities, when considered laterally, are somewhat easier to make sense of. From Obama’s cry for “change” four years ago until today, China’s changes have obviously greatly outnumbered America’s. China’s transformations these past several years are so many that change seems to have become a state in and of itself; these changes may gradually upgrade to some really earth-shattering stuff.

The intensity of China’s health care reform these past few years makes Obama’s health care reform pale in significance. And China’s transformations do not end at health care reform! Almost all of China’s social policies are lateral adjustments toward improving people’s lives and strengthening fairness. Although China hasn’t had a political overturn like was experienced during the Arab Spring, its magnitude of social change these past few years is undoubtedly among the highest in the world.

As the passion of dispute is incessantly aroused, the speed of democracy progresses. All of this adds new vitality to Chinese society, breaking the former facade of unity. In any case, this is a good thing for China, but at the same time it is also a new thing. How is it possible to grasp the new situation, to transfer these good things from the political and ideological level into social, human results — this will be a long-term test for China.

There is at least one portion of people who are particularly excited to be in the early stages of a diversified Chinese society. They have a fresh marketization strategy for influencing public opinion, but lack the necessary scope. Some people even lack a feeling of responsibility for the safeguarding the nation or the overwhelming majority of public interest.

China and America are both nations facing management difficulties, but America can simply maintain the achievement of its previous generations, while China must constantly progress. Since the reform and opening, China has learned a lot of things from the United States, but it must also learn a key lesson from America’s performance in financial crisis: Dispute is a good thing, but it cannot go on endlessly. China definitely must maintain its priorities of timely policy decisions and the strength to change future policy into action.

China has not only already entered the age of “any decision will be met with the voice of opposition”; it is also gradually approaching the deep end of it. Here there are many treasures to be had, but every treasure must have a practical function for the Chinese people. If 21st-century China is to proceed well, the first law of necessity is that this country must continuously expand democracy; the first commandment is: Chinese society must not fall into disunity like a heap of loose sand.


社评:看奥巴马改不动,而知中国有多难

 美国总统奥巴马星期一正式开启了又一个四年任期。他的国家正在遭受经济疲软和政治分歧的困扰,作为连任总统,他最清楚推动这个世界最大经济体变革有多难。

  奥巴马是高喊变革于4年前走进白宫的,这个口号他现在已经不怎么喊了。从变革的角度说,他的前4年差不多交了白卷。华尔街依然如故。唯一能拿出手的医疗改革至今悬在半空,基本推不下去。
 美国是世界上超级庞大的管理系统。它的力量大,在全球牵动的利益自然就多,它面临的抉择也会更多。美国国内的社会比中国社会总体上要小,但美国 内部的矛盾释放很充分,把美国体制的能力占得满满的,并使它逐渐变得笨拙,丧失了弹性。奥巴马前4年给人印象最深的是他的风度和一些名言,但似乎很难有什 么精彩作为留给历史。

这不是奥巴马笨,而是美国这个家越来越难当。掣肘奥巴马的力量实在太多了,近十几年来,美国国内的分化和分歧越来越严重。

美国处在人类社会发展的高点,它这样混4年最重要的是有资本,混得下去,代价无非是看到新兴国家发展更快时的危机感。如果以美国政府的做法领导中国这样的发展中大国,大概就混不下去了。

中国同样是超级庞大的管理系统,中国的力量不及美国,没去世界各地惹麻烦,但中国的国内如今是地地道道的矛盾多发期。中国的社会矛盾总 量美国根本没法比,它们过去被埋着或者半埋着,现在逐渐开始学习在美国社会里的那种释放。中国早已不是政府的一个号召就能贯彻到社会末梢的国家。

  中国内部的纠结,横向一比反而容易看得清楚些。从奥巴马4年前高喊变革至今,中国的改变显然比美国多多了。中国过去几年的变化甚至多得让我们觉着变化本身成了状态,而变化逐渐升格成某种石破天惊的东西。

  中国过去几年医改的力度,让奥巴马的医改相形见绌。而中国的变化又岂止医改!几乎中国的所有社会政策都在朝着改善民生和加强公平的方向调整,中国虽然没有阿拉伯之春那样的政治颠覆,但中国社会的改革幅度无疑是这些年全世界最大的之一。

  与此同时争议的热情也在中国被不断唤醒,民主迅速发展。这一切给中国社会新添了活力,打破了以往不真实的表面统一。这对中国无论如何是好事,但同时也是新事。如何把握新局面,让政治和意识形态层面的好事最终转化成社会民生领域的成果,这对中国将是长期考验。   至少有一部分人处于中国社会多元化初期的特殊兴奋中,他们有影响舆论的新兴市场化手段,但缺少必要的视野,一些人甚至缺少维护国家和最广大公众利益的责任感。

中美都是面临治理困难的大国,但美国可以守成,而中国必须不断前进。中国自改革开放以来学了美国的很多东西,但也要从它金融危机以来的表现中汲取一个关键的教训:争论是好事,但不能无休无止,中国一定要保持能够适时决策的优势和将决策变成行动的力量。

  中国不仅已经进入什么决定都会遭遇反对声音的时代,而且正逐渐走向它的深水区。这里什么宝贝都有,但任何宝贝都必须对中国人实用。21世纪的中国要走好,第一定律是这个国家要不断扩大民主,第一戒是,中国社会不能变成一盘散沙。
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