US Forms Cliques, East Asia Has Difficulty Finding Peace

Published in Sohu
(China) on 22 January 2013
by Dingli Shen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stefanie Zhou. Edited by Molly Rusk.
Obama has won re-election for the U.S. presidency. In his future four years in the White House, foreign affairs will constitute an important aspect of his leadership.

The United States is facing many thorny diplomatic problems. How to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan to allow U.S. forces a smooth withdrawal this year? How to stabilize the situation in the Middle East, especially in Egypt and Israel, and strive for a smooth transition in Syria? How to control the Iranian and North Korean nuclear problems, or freeze them at the very least? How to handle relations with the emerging powers, including promoting the stalled U.S.-Russian relations and balancing the complex relationship with China?

The majority of the external affairs that the United States will have to deal with do not affect its control over the world. However, its relation with China is quite special. China’s rapid development over the past 10 years, as well as its expected development in the next 10 to 20 years, has caused the U.S. National Intelligence Council to judge that, by 2030, the United States will no longer be the only superpower. If development is steady, the size of China's economy will have exceeded that of the United States by that time. Although a large gap still stills exists between China's per capita level of development and that of the United States, it will have entered the world medium level by then. With its huge population and land resources, by 2030 China's comprehensive competitiveness will have improved significantly compared to the present.

The U.S. government has long been aware that non-traditional security threats are no longer the main threats that the United States faces. The United States' focus in dealing with international relations has to return to traditional relationships between countries, and many of the main actors changing international social power are in the Western Pacific region at the present.

The target for the “return to Asia” proposed by the United States in recent years is clear. However, it may be beyond the reach of the U.S. to realize any sort of rebalancing. Many issues are swarming in the dark, and they may surge at any time and cause significant turbulence. Regional instability in the Middle East last year, for example, has already delayed the global redistribution of the United States' security resources; and its long-term financial imbalance has severely hindered the rebalancing of the Asia-Pacific region.

Even so, the United States is still doing its best to emphasize that its strategy of rebalancing the Asia-Pacific region is necessary. Although the official side denied that this strategy was aimed at China, its actions unmistakably demonstrated its target. The U.S. added provisions, applicable to Japan, to the U.S.-Japan security treaty in order to maintain control over the Diaoyu Islands; and the so-called “ideal” stance has been repeated by the U.S. administration many times. Regarding the South China Sea, similar high-profile initiatives by the United States will probably fail to achieve the wished-for balance, and are likely to provoke disputes in this region, making tranquility more difficult to reach.

It's no wonder that Kan Li, a senior research fellow at Brookings Institution, reminded the White House in his recently published Memorandum to President Obama that rebalancing cannot go too far, or China will only see it as intentional encouragement that the United States gives to countries such as Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines to suppress China. It will eventually cause China to react, making the region more turbulent, which should not be the goal sought by the United States. The truth is that if the United States wants stability, it needs to share the goal with China so that both sides have room for cooperation. If the United States is contacting other countries to encircle China because it is relatively weak by itself, the plan will inevitably backfire and lead to a real imbalance that even the United States does not want to see.

Currently, the United States' disregard for facts and bias toward the Japanese side regarding the Diaoyu Islands have caused the continued imbalance of Sino-Japan relations and Japan-Sino-U.S. relations. The United States’ effort at rebalancing — forming cliques — lacks self-confidence. It not only makes it difficult for East Asia to have tranquility, but may ultimately backfire, causing damage. With the gradual formation of Obama's new cabinet, people hope that the wise men in the United States can soberly reflect upon themselves. The change in Asia-Pacific is unstoppable. The U.S. will share the prosperity with the Western Pacific region only if it goes with the tide, respecting the emerging powers' legitimate and reasonable demands, and helping the region settle major controversies fairly and properly.

The author is a professor and the director of American Studies Center at Fudan University


  奥巴马已再任美国总统。在他未来四年的白宫岁月中,外交构成其领导力的重要一面。

  美国当前面临一堆棘手外交难题。如何稳定阿富汗和巴基斯坦局势,以使美军从今年起顺利撤军?如何稳定中东局势,尤其是稳定埃及与以色列,并力求叙利亚平稳变局?如何管控伊朗和朝鲜核/导弹问题,至少能够对其冻结?如何处理好与新兴大国的关系,既要推动停滞不前的美俄关系,又要平衡与中国的复杂关系?

  在所有美国将要处理的外部事务中,多数并不影响美国对世界的主控。然而它同中国的关系却比较特殊。中国在过去10年的快速发展以及未来10到20年可预期的发展,已使美国国家情报委员会在去年得出判断:到2030年,美国就将不再是唯一的超级大国。如果发展能够平稳,中国的经济规模那时将已超美。尽管中国的人均发展水平与美国相比仍将有较大差距,但届时在世界上已入中等。对于具有巨大人口与国土资源的中国来讲,那时的综合竞争力同现在相比将有显著提升。

  美国政府早就认识到非传统安全威胁已不再是美国面临的主要威胁。美国处理国际关系的重点,还得回到传统国家间关系的范畴中来。只有国家行为体才有可能形成国际社会权力变迁的主体,而这样的行为体目前主要出现在西太平洋地区。

  美国近年提出“重返亚洲”,剑锋所指清晰。不过美国真要兑现“再平衡”,恐怕力有不逮。上述的诸多矛盾虽然几乎不会同时爆发,但诸多问题都在暗流涌动,随时都可能出现重大波动。譬如,去年中东出现的地区动荡已经延滞了美国对其安全资源的全球性再分配,更不用说美国财政长期严重失衡对其再平衡亚太所造成的重大牵制。

  即便如此,美国仍竭力强调其“再平衡”亚太战略的必要。尽管华盛顿方面矢口否认这一战略是针对中国,但其行动明白无误地表明了美国的矛头所向。美国的新年国防方案已载入《美日安保条约》对日本维持其对钓鱼岛的控制所适用的条文,而且这一所谓“意想性”的立场已被美国行政部门屡次重复。在南海方向,美国类似的高调举措恐怕非但不能实现美国期待的平衡,反而会激起这一地区更多的纷争,使得这一区域更难安宁。

  这也难怪美国布鲁金斯学会的资深研究员李侃如在他日前发表的“致奥巴马总统的备忘录”中提醒白宫:“再平衡”不能过了头,不然将被中国看作美国有意激励日本、越南和菲律宾等国压制中国,最终将引起中国的反应从而使得本地区更为动荡,而这不应是美国寻求的目标。事实就是这样:美国如果希望稳定,它与中国分享目标,双方还大有合作空间;但要是美国因为自己相对衰弱而联络他国来合围中国,那么必然适得其反,造成连它自己也不希望看到的真正失衡。

  当前,美国在处理钓鱼岛问题上罔顾事实、偏袒日方的错误做法已经造成了中日关系以及中日美关系的持续失衡。美国如此“再平衡”,拉帮结派,缺乏自信,不仅东亚难有安宁,而且最终可能引火烧身,自损其利。随着奥巴马新内阁的逐步形成,人们希望美国的智者能够冷静反省。亚太的变局不可阻挡,美国惟有顺应潮流,尊重新兴力量的合法合理诉求,乐助这一地区的重大争议公平妥善解决,它才可能与西太平洋地区共同分享繁荣长安。

  (作者为复旦大学美国研究中心教授、主任)
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