Struggle for the Floor at G20 Summit

Published in The Beijingnews.com
(China) on 31 March 2009
by Zhang Zhixin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ming Li. Edited by Louis Standish.
Zhou Xiaochuan’s recent article caused widespread concern, the cause of which is deep worry about the Fed’s recent announcement that it would heavily purchase U.S. bonds while the connotation is China’s appeal for reform in the irrational global economic system.

Before the G20 summit that will be held on April 2nd, Zhou Xiaochuan, the president of the People’s Bank of China, wrote an article calling for a new international reserve currency to take place of the dollar. It was unexpected that Zhou’s short article, which was published on the bank’s Web site, would have stirred up quick reactions from senior U.S. officials and attracted global attention, especially in Europe and Japan.

As the foreign media and Chinese financial analysts have commented, the argument for the dollar’s termination was not suggested only by China (Russia, Iran and Venezuela had said so before), nor brought up until today (some scholars had proposed similar suggestions many years ago). More importantly, this advice is unrealistic to China’s current interests, but might even take China to face a short-term challenge.

Even so, Zhou, a senior financial official honored as “Mr. RMB” in China, still published his opinions in both Chinese and English, a reflection that big countries are struggling intensely for verbal dominance at the G20 Summit.

In connection with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s worry about China’s dollar reserves during the NPC and CPPCC conferences, Zhou’s opinions are in fact conveying his deep concern that international society, including the U.S., with a dollar-centered international finance system, is in urgent need of reform.

The root of this concern is the deep worry about Fed’s recent views that it would heavily purchase the U.S. bonds, and the connotation of it is China’s long-term and all-the-time appeal to change the old international economic system of irrationality and build a newer, fairer and more democratic one where developed, emerging and underdeveloped countries are more equal in their obligations and responsibilities.

To demonstrate the superiority of the dollar and furthermore, the strong confidence of the American economy in the future, it is not unusual that Timothy Geithner, the Secretary of the Treasury Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed and President Obama would respond in person to China’s worries and uneasiness as it is the U.S.’s biggest creditor. However, the U.S. is not without action on public opinion when contending for message dissemination; the “New York Times,” the “Washington Post” and the big television networks are providing warm-up stories for the upcoming G20 Summit.

On March 25, Mirek Topolanek, prime minister of the Czech Republic, the country now holding the rotating presidency of the EU, pointed out bluntly in European Parliament that the present stimulus plan of the U.S. is undoubtedly a “road to hell.” Although some EU officials criticized his words as “out of bounds,” it profoundly shows the deep divide between the U.S. and Europe on related issues. What Europe wants is to strengthen regulations of international finance, but not to follow the U.S. in stimulating their economies fiscally. During the European Parliamentary session, most European countries focused on financial regulation rather than following America’s stimulus plan.

Unquestionably, Europe’s voice will be supported from some emerging countries like Russia, India and Brazil, and whose appeals are more detailed, including more investment to the IMF from developed countries, more voting rights for those emerging countries and more assistance to developing countries from multilateral financial institutions.

Perhaps only global cooperation and fighting protectionism are two topics that will not cause dispute. But everyone knows that working together is just a moral call and no one can tell whether all countries’ policies will be as warm as the handshakes between the countries’ leaders at the Summit, and “protectionism” is a typical slogan like “odorous Tofu,” which is odorous but delicious. Actually, the U.S. has feigned action in one place and made the real move in another.

The G20 London Summit has not started yet, but the struggle for discourse power has been set in place earlier. It is unknown whether the Summit will be an “exercise in futility” as predicted by the "Financial Times."


G20峰会的话语权之争
   作者:张智新

  近日,周小川的一篇短文引来广泛关注。关注的外延,是对美联储近日关于大举购进美国国债言论的深刻担忧,其内涵则是中国改革不合理国际经济旧秩序的诉求。

  在4月2日二十国集团(G20)伦敦峰会召开前夕,中国人民银行行长周小川撰文提出,要创立新的国际储备货币以取代美元。没想到这篇刊发于央行网站上的短文章,竟然一石激起千层浪,不仅立即引发美国高层的直接反应,更导致包括欧洲日本等在内的全球舆论的广泛关注。

  其实,正如外媒和中国国内财经分析人士一致评说的那样,“终结美元说”既非中国独自主张(俄罗斯以及伊朗、委内瑞拉等国都曾提出过),也非今天才提出的崭新主张(多年前就有圈内学者提出过类似建议)。更为重要的是,这一倡议既缺乏现实可能性,即对现实中国也没有多大益处,甚至短期内还会带来挑战。

  尽管如此,周小川这位被誉为“人民币先生”的中国财经高官仍罕见地以中英文发表这一言论,实则反映出各大国对G20峰会话语权争夺的白热化。

  联系到不久前中国两会上温家宝总理对中国美元资产的“担忧”,周小川这一言论实则在向包括美国在内的国际社会传达自己的强烈关切:以美元作为国际货币为核心内容的现有国际金融体系亟待大力改革。

  这一关切的外延,是对美联储近日关于大举购进美国国债言论的深刻担忧。其内涵则是中国对国际政治经济秩序一以贯之的长期诉求:改革不合理国际经济旧秩序,重建更加公平民主,发达国家、新兴国家以及落后国家间责任义务更加对等的国际经济新秩序。

  为了显示美元的强势地位仍在,更为了展现对美国经济未来的强大信心,面对中国这个最大“债主”的担忧和不安,财长盖特纳、美联储主席伯南克乃至总统奥巴马本人亲自出面回应中国的担心,也是再正常不过的事了。其实,在这场话语权的争夺中,美国舆论并非被动应战。《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》以及美国各大电视网站近来也在为G20峰会做热身报道。

  3月25日,欧盟现任轮值主席国、捷克总理托波拉内克在欧洲议会上以鲜有的高调指出:美国目前实施的经济刺激计划无疑是一条“通向地狱之路”。此言虽被部分欧盟官员批评为“太过”,但仍深刻反映出当前美欧在相关问题上的深刻分歧:欧洲的诉求是改革和加强国际金融监管,而非跟着美国利用扩张财政搞经济刺激。在欧洲议会期间,多数欧洲国家将焦点集中到加强金融监管上,而不是效仿美国扩大经济刺激计划。

  欧洲的这一话语无疑会得到包括俄、印、巴西等新兴国家的支持,但后者的诉求也不止于此,还包括增加发达国家对IMF的投入,扩大新兴国家在其中的表决权,促使多边金融机构加大对发展中国家的帮扶力度等呼声。

  可能各方不会争论的话语只有两个:一是全球携手,二是反对保护主义。不过谁都知道,前者是个道义号召,各国具体政策是否会和峰会上领导人的握手那样亲热一致自然难说;后者则是一个典型的“臭豆腐”口号,闻着臭吃着香,美国早已率先“明修栈道暗渡陈仓”了。

  G20伦敦峰会尚未召开,话语权的争夺早已拉开大幕,不知是否会真的让这一峰会成为《金融时报》所预言的“无用集会”?
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